Member Info for ValueMB

Good morning all. First of all, thanks for the contributions regarding TA, very interesting. It's a field that I have never used too extensively personally. Perhaps I should reconsider this. Over the past week and a bit, the share price has slipped a certain amount. However, I have not heard much in terms of news to justify this change. Has anyone heard of a reason why this company should be considered less valuable as of late? Has there been any significant change in the regional situation, or do you think this is a delayed reaction to the coal mine acquisition or a reaction to the nomad and joint broker? How do you view the impact of the nomad & JB on the company? Alternatively, do you believe the recent change in price is an example of a speculation or a moody Mr/Mrs Market?

I think you are right in that the decline will reverse and the share value should increase. However, I do not think we can expect substantial increases with any confidence* until there is a statement suggesting an EPS considerably higher than the current one. I am certain this will come, with the corresponding increase in share price. This might be months away but with a dividend at 7-8% I can afford to wait. Even if Mr Market is sounding rather depressed. *unless you have insider knowledge or firm convictions on macro changes, I don't see a good reason for people to value the shares any different tomorrow or in a weeks time.

The advantage of talking to oneself is that you receive wise and agreeable replies. That said, todays BKG statement looks alright to me.

I believe the underlying strategy is "excellent value acquisition which is both immediately profitable and enables organic growth". This is based on bits of information in the RNS, please let me know whether you think this is correct: 1. They are saying that it is viable and that the run-of-mine can readily be used for excellent yields of high grade coal. In other words, it should generate readily generate income. 2. They say that they believe there is room for organic growth, in that there are opportunities to increase production and improve operational performance. There is also a mention regarding additional exploration potential in the area. 3. Finally they are saying that the current tough resources market leads to opportunities in SA, which they are able to capitalize on due to their strong finances. A quick glance at futures for thermal coal seem to show that prices are down to 2007 and 2009 prices, I believe this is the tough resources market referred to. I wish we had more numbers regarding this transaction but their strategy seems coherent. I note that we should get financial statement for the year ending 30 June 2015, on or near 23 September. Should we expect any other statements? Disclaimer of interest: Own shares in PAF.L

Regarding HSBC targets; I do not tend to put too much faith in broker targets, due to their low accuracy.

It is a nice dividend, and it is maintained even as they are looking into organic growth and purchasing an extra mine. I don't think this is a stock to buy if you want to sell it in a week or two, but with a dividend like this and the currently reduced EPS being due to transient events, I think this is a great stock if you are willing to hold it for a while.

I find MF entertaining to read from time to time, but many of the free articles are rather vague, suggesting a stock could be good, followed by plugging their paid services. This time the article just did not really add anything new, just saying profit warning pushed prices down yet broker views were optimistic. However, I do appreciate the greater attention paid to PAF. I do believe it's a buy, probably a strong buy, but remain very curious about the colliery. If they got it for a song and it will be giving good returns, then I am more than happy for them to "diversify" in this way. I did top up a bit on PAF this dip but relative lack of liquidity prevented me from purchasing as much as I would have liked.

PAF was mentioned in the motley fool. I see no value in the mention as they are not really saying anything, but here is a link for you to decide yourselves: http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2015/06/09/do-price-falls-make-range-resources-ltd-sound-oil-plc-and-pan-african-resources-plc-good-value/

I don't know for certain but the market as a whole is slightly jittery with Greece. Perhaps there is a concern about a default and what effect that might have on the greater economic climate and the interest rates. I would not be quick to panic, the fundamentals have not greatly changed over the past few days. Britain still needs more houses.

I'd imagine that there will not be much movement until there is evidence of a strong increase in sales (rather than just a projected increase).

The end of the low grade cycle and the EPS/HEPS was previously known, and adverse events such as power interruption should have been expected and calculated for. The biox plant and the ETRP being up to speed, the latter at a lower than expected cost, is of course good news. So is the extended mine life and the possibilities of organic growth through South project and Ekihulu treatment plant. The platinum component is seen as an "added bonus" by many, and the increase in production is again beneficial. Improvement over current credit facility, continued cash generation, directors forfeiting their bonuses and maintained dividends is good news. I do not know whether to consider the purchase of the colliery good, maybe someone else out there knows more about coal mining and whether this is a good deal? Overall it seems that the company is recovering from temporary losses, with areas for organic growth. It maintains a great dividend and cash generation, and the company is now cheaper. I would consider this an opportunity to buy in or to increase a holding.