Member Info for ValueMB

I would not read too much into it. I am not sure how many house builders you are tracking, but compare with TW (187 to 200) and BDEV (56x to 610) if you have not already. Both have seen large increases over the past week, or should we perhaps say return towards previous valuations. If you want to see changes in SP that make little sense, look at GMD and look at the amount of news available that would justify such changes. Makes you wonder what people know..

Last I heard they have burnt about 10% of their cashpile by running prices down. So they could continue for a long time, but whether they will have appetite to do so is a very different matter. I do not think that the many members of OPEC has any great interest in destroying all their wealth this way. Speaking of numbers, does anyone have the minimum price per barrel Shell needs to sustain operations and current dividend?

Bit muddled, the % may refer to the Showa Shell Sekiyu, but surely not Royal Dutch Shell as a whole (where that sort of money would get them less than 1%).

Broker recommendations are generally vaguely educated guesstimates, which explains why they are so widely variable and so frequently miles off the mark. I would not take them with anything but a giant pinch of salt. Do your own research, as always.

Looks like a mix of "good and better". Whether it beats analysts forecasts is a different matter. Next update 7th of January.

Liberum reviewed BDEV from 539 to 536. So no change in their views, but generates headlines.

It is obviously time to panic sell, as I just picked some up. Jokes aside, I don't think the four percent down-swing reflects a true change in outlook for the company, rather it is an opportunity to benefit from a moody Mr/Mrs Market. But do your own research etc.

any particular news resulting in this, or just people reading old news and deciding it is not so awful after all? I am always suspicious of sudden changes in price in the absence of new information.

That rio sp didn't change more today!

It looks to me that fundamentals are good, with quite agreeable P/E and yield. Obviously there is a share price discount due to an unfortunate past, which provides an entry point for those who believe that it is unlikely to be repeated. Such as myself. Full year result due in a couple of days, and I am expecting the news to be rather tolerable given the trading statement a while back.

I am sure that there are a fair few people out there who could speculate, although I am not sure how valuable such speculations are. But here's a very light-hearted and not very thoroughly underpinned guesstimate of what will be covered: A. BG is still a go. B. Oil glut is bad but not as bad as expected due to Shell's integrated nature. C. Dividend will be maintained. D. Efficiency savings will be good but never good enough to fully satisfy the market. E. Head honcho is optimistic about the company's future, at least long-term. F. Alaska... "Oh well, oil well, maybe worth looking into with higher oil prices but we are limiting expenses now." I do of course hope nobody will pay serious attention to the above, as I have no insider knowledge.

Okay, terrible pun. Just thought I'd point out that they may be able to get the go ahead in EU for a new treatment for severe asthma in a few weeks, and that they are considered to be about a year ahead of rivals for this type of treatment. May improve business a bit. If business is good and the dividend is maintained (not relative but absolute terms), I would love share price to drop so I could buy even more. Of course, the concern would be that dividend is reduced and share price falls. For short term traders, it is not so simple.

Will try to be brief. Yes, commodities to some extent regulate themselves, at higher prices more sources are economically viable, increasing supply, and vice versa. In addition to this, it is worth noting that although oil wells may be profitable at rather low prices in certain gulf states, those countries rely on oil profits to keep the country going. I am sure most of you know, but if not, throw something like "budget break even oil prices" into a google search. Essentially, at the moment, "oil countries" in the gulf are haemorrhaging money. Saudi arabia may have their reserves of cash, but I bet they would rather not burn through them needlessly. I am not sure we are going to see a soon turnaround for oil, but I am sure we will eventually, it has not yet gone out of fashion. I saw vehicles using fossil not that long ago. In my mind, if believes that RDS can continue to pay their dividends in perpetuity, it is a good buy regardless of other factors. I am not sure I wish to increase my 0001 exposure as I am already slightly heavy on it.

7xx pence if deal falls through, I would imagine. If it was an entirely done deal, there would be very little difference between BG price and RDS offer.

Will let someone else re-run the numbers for you as I am short on time, but I thought I should add that when I looked at it recently, the divide was shrinking. At that time, you were essentially offered a 10% discount if you were to buy BG shares, owing to the risk of capital depreciation should the deal not go through.

News external to PAF: Gold price went up for a change, but SA unions seem set to continue towards a strike. One union has said it would recommend accepting the offer, but another has said they will reject it, and a deal requires all unions to accept.

Check the RNS this morning. Audited results, dividends, etc. Proposed dividend in ZAR slightly reduced by about 1/6th, but there is mention of considering an interim dividend to bring it up to previous years. However, exchange rate will impact on the dividend. For the record, it's about .54p at todays exchange rate. Regarding the eagerly awaited "what is the evander grade like NOW?" it seems we still have to wait for further information.

Speaking of inflationary cost, see the RNS today. A 4.8% decrease in gold resources "attributed to inflationary cost". Perhaps not as bad as expected. Much other data also present on resources, reserves, grades etc.

EF: Agreed, it is of modest concern to PAF (contrary to some people's beliefs). I doubt anyone would expect the dividend to not be reduced in GBP, if GBPZAR is rising. The only real concerns for PAF holds, at this point, is regarding A) SA politics B) SA wages C) SA power supply. Assuming they're in it for beyond the short term.

A nice little sum today, although obviously expected. Could someone please enlighten me as to the next set of ex-div and div dates are, so I can add them to my calendar? I did not see them on RIOs website, just the date for their next earings report.