Member Info for Ups1de

This is so undervalued compared to moni...and Malaysia GDP projected to grow 7--8%.Once the year end results Coe out we can expect further progress

Nice to see Panmure sticking with valuation of £2.79 per share today

GheeBhee,Very interesting.I appreciate you sharing the excellent homework you have done.Mining deals ain't straightforward!

What's AFF current cash per share:70P+?....why would bod give the company away for next to nothing? And its not for a seat on a board.

I can see from the IMIC board you are a fan....bod unlikely to show their hand yet.Check their credentials out- they are a heavy duty bunch who I will be very surprised to let IMIC steal the company for next to nothing,We shall see & all good as I will make money whatever.

I can see the board 1.turning IMIC 3 tier offer down citing( correctly) it significantly undervalues prospects given cash pile & recent ore quality results 2.Announcing agreed Posco partnership 3.IMIC coming back with improved cash offer around £1.40 Everyone happy.

What indicators? Its not a great deal given LT valuations put out by some analysts...and why pursue Posco?

Not so sure GheeBhee...if it was a done deal why wouldn't the market grab the significant arbitrage opportunity: share price 69 p so could simply pocket a 16% gain-80p + loan note.Market obviously thinks it is NOT a done deal.

I reckon bod could the offer down ( citing correctly that it significantly undervalues the assets (remember IMIC recently paid 90p so not much of a premium) .however AFF may not have no concrete plan just wishful thinking about future partnerships....what happens then?

The ' something they might know' is 4.3B tonnes of high grade iron ore...the barriers to success are funding & infrastructure.Anyone who can effectively convince the market they can guarantee deliver with deep picketed partners will see the value per share triple.Uncertainty or delay will eliminate the ups1de.

Some excellent points.Thanks guys.Liked the average down option.Not convinced safety first is the best option : -IMIC already suffered ' acquirers droop' -they will come out if the traps quick on good news/ compelling rationale to protect their share price( Goldman sacs retained in the background) - dont see a price drop of 30% on what will be a brilliant deal for them...if they can convince the market the necessary rail infrastructure will be built.

Looks like they are playing a blinder: signalled a bid but AFF share price hardly moves & thats despite proven resource valued in £ s per share.Clearly IMIC are just the front for Chinese heavyweights.Why wouldn't we back the all share offer at £1.40? iMIC share has already suffered the ' acquirer drop on news' affect.If one thinks of the Longer term opportunity whats the risk of backing IMIC?

Why would we be surprised by the share price movement.The key risk the market has to see removed is infrastructure build( rail line & port. ),Sundance news has hit us hard ( temporarily).the good news:China needs huge iron ore supplies over the next decade.Chinese will make infrastructure happen.Thankfully AFF has the cash resources to be patient.Once this gets settled it WILL fly .Until then tuck away & forget about price swings.

Frankly I don't know,We well know markets are inefficient and driven by 2 forces: Fundementals and sentiment.Many( including myself) got into AFF hoping to make a quick buck on the back of takeover speculation pre Xmas( though the excellent resources underpinned my gamble)..Lack of progress to date tarnished its image & hurt sentiment .Confidence was not helped either by the Sundance debacle.I dont know anything about the other share you mentioned.I am confident positive news will correct matters in the case of AFF.I have pointed out before China uses 46% of the worlds iron ore & even a slowing aching grows at +7% p.a over the next decade.Simple maths says to me : no worries.As they say : valuations are the friend of the speculators;time is the friend of the value investor....guess what I've changed from being a speculator to a value investor on AFF to protect my sunny outlook on life.Happy Easter!

Myst1,I am in here nursing losses but we have to recognise the market needs to see evidence that this world class asset will actually be mined.African geo politics,rail network,port..not 'sentiment'. Sundance no done deal yet...not ' sentiment'.I agree incredible potential ONCE a deep pocketed partner secured.Be patient & it will come good just not soon.

Guys,until market sees evidence of the necessary infrastructure actually being built its right to only value AFF at around cash pile.If & when green light on railroad seen then we can add an 'explorer option value' to cash.If project moves towards production then an attempt at dcf can occur .Its sequential & logical.Sit tight.

Still looks a tad high but 35p looks seductive.Any views?

You are spot on,..AFF website presentation Dec 2012 suggests $.43 per tonne...conservatively valuing company @£2.77 per share! Lot of money left for producers at these explorer rates.Thanks again

Hi Myst1,,,,,is that right :$ .45 per tonne when trade price around $150 per tonne?

Have you read the rights issue prospectus...I think you will find nav of £150 million with 298m shares after rights=50p per share nav