Member Info for Ups1de

You are correct...catch is its AIM ,Africa & a huge project that will take a lot of money & patience.Once sentiment & confidence secured AFF will do extremely well.

AFF has proven world class resources & until operational will be valued at a pittance vs real value.It is pursuing the right ' big brother' partnership to realise value: min 4-6 times current share price in 2/3 years time The opportunity for AFF is obvious:CHINA - this currently consumes 46% of global iron ore; its GDP will grow :7 to9% over next decade...the simple maths mean another 46% of current world iron resource needs mined again to meet this demand! Time is the friend of the value investor -AFF will be a huge success.

Hi Jolly,very well thank you,Hope trading treating you well.check out Cupid pre results.....as you would say....boooooom

Playtime,what's the current outlook for palm oil prices ? Still in doldrums? Is nbpo worth a punt@500.input appreciated

You will be offered opportunity maintain your ' relative share' of company & get to buy relevant no of new shares.Rights issues generally price up to 20% below prevailing market price....then you hope the cash injection/ future prospects cause the company to bounce.SFR will come good again but I fear not in the near future.

I can see us getting a steady drip of RNS similar to this - none earth shattering but signalling to potential suitors that AFF has fantastic value opportunities across several fronts...and will not come too cheap

So share price will probably rise!? A horrible set of results with a massive profit swing.No doubt a deeply discounted rights issue so little chance of short term price progress.Disappointing ( but not surprising)! that Indian JV delivering little( how many Western cos find this).Positive that debt has not risen dramatically & forward order book stable.Will become a strong co again...just not yet.Will certainly test mid 60s & if tucked away in SIPP will come good eventually.

Sore one Jolly...such a terse outlook statement in a scared market only serves to spook. As I understand it ' normalise' attempts to smooth out any abnormal limos like disposals/ write offs / windfalls to look at a smoothed,more average earnings line. Have you stuck with CAP? GBO a star!

Myst1,thank you for sharing a well thought out,fact based analysis.Like you I am convinced AFF will come good.We all have to remember what tends to happens on AIM...weakly interested in fundamentals especially if events take time to deliver;moves as much on noise/ momentum as quality news; obsessed with relative rather than intrinsic valuations.

Looks like one of its biggest holders CFSB strategic partners has sold at least 2% of holding in past 10 days( from 14 to under 12%).Thats not going to be helpful after a superficially positive RNS.I don't know a lot about CAP but would be nervous about the lack of scale plus fact it doesn't look like they will make make much money even in F13.An attractive sector to be in provided they can handle the working capital needs & deliver on sales promises.They appear to have dwindling cash reserves.What kind of trading t & cs operate in this sector as I assume these systems don't come cheap?

This will flush them out if they are serious

I agree with that.AFF has sufficient liquidity to negotiate from a strong position.

What did CEO PAY for holding? what fundamental metrics make you think its undervalued?

I notice Investor Chronicle has dropped AFF from its ' expected deal' column.Also on AFF website it highlights that $ 3.5B + investment required to generate the $4.6B NPV.Real dilemma for bod....don't sell up too cheaply( offers only 1-2% of expected value) or find the right 'gain sharing 'formula with a deep pocketed strategic partner.

Couple of key points: hands up who would rate or respect a bod that sold assets for less than 1% of value? What would their reputation be with city institutional investors( sorry aim individual private investors don't matter here) ?So forget the 115-140 p takeover- note RNS today didn't even refer to it.The real action is bringing an amazing,long term ,risky,tough project home.Yes ,AFF potential IS proven but massive FUNDING & the small matter of a RAILROAD are required.Either IMIC get serious( & they need a deep pocketed partner) or sensibly bod find their own strategic partner & keep the undoubted $$$ value.Day traders will move on.Tuck away for long term( ESP Sipps) & sleep easy.

Chief exec owns 37% of shares so guess who calls the shots...most certainly not the private investor base & not institutional groups.Still way over valued on fundementals at today's price.

The scenario I pitched on Jan 30th has unfortunately come to pass.Very glad I didn't bite when the recent 'dead cat' bounce occurred.What I couldn't understand was how the price was rising in the face of such obvious ,impending bad news,SFR is too strong to stay down for long but I can know see a lower entry point as shareholders face a long haul to attractive recovery -with rights issue dilution first.Surprised no mention of Indian venture in latest RNS.

You are very welcome.We are here to help one another.

That's the end of IDG...one of the best little earners!Time to reinvest in Fox,BHR & GBO

Positive interim ....making p& l progress,strong cash balance,securing patents in key markets,ramping up production & partnership activities.Set to rise through 2013 as critical mass achieved.Can see excellent ups1de for the patient.Its taking its time but genuine innovation takes time to gain traction.