Member Info for UpDownFlat

Yes about $100m more to to except the offer to sell 9% of Mag @ $2.1b

Fresnillo's competency is mining precious metals in the Mexican jusdistiction. They would struggle to manage MAG.

9% of $2.1b is $189m. I think the profit/loss is taken to equity rather than through the P&L, although reported on an underlying basis. Cash is cash. Good decision to sell the investment, as it will improve ROCE.

If you are positive about future PM prices , then the maths of the financials point to a higher share price based on current performance and prices.

Therefore selling only makes sense if you can time the market. If you can do that, is Fres really the best share to be doing that with ?

Seems like selling in May is a risky 50/50 gamble and I prefer some sort of logic.

Gold vol up 16k oz from q1 last year.

Maybe somebody knows better, but I would guess this is financially the best q1 they have ever had.

So , the silver volume was mid range of guidance, the gold volume was top of guidance. The revenue will be $160m up from last year and costs are likely to be down due to MXN and oil. So +-$200m additional cash for the quarter Vs last year. It seems to me like a massively successful first quarter, based on historical results.

But a 45- 50% increase in earnings, still might put this around 1000p per share after March 🤞, if silver holds around $31

Actually, cost will only be flat or at best marginally lower in 2024 due to the phasing of the MXN weakening. A larger reduction can be expected in 2025.

On the last earning call a value of 50% of thier cost base being in Peso was mentioned. They seemed confident that a weaker Peso would deliver cost savings when reported in USD / GBP.

The USD is shooting up as are long term rates, these are both headwinds for commodities. This is because everyone believes Trump tariffs will cause inflation. Just wait until he tweets that he has changed his mind.

By my calculations they make +-$400m profit this year and lot more next year at current silver and gold prices

As understand it silverstream was the right to buy and resell Penoles silver which is mined as a by-product. Even if they were making $5 per ounce (which I don't think was likely), the impact is about $10m per year profit.

Please correct me if I am wrong

The Q4 production announcement brings forward the cost issue, which is likely to be faced by most minners. Hopefully from now on we see rising margins, and rising volumes.

UBS are correct if you assume 20 times earning, but after the next 6 weeks the numbers change quite dramatically as higher volumes and higher prices start.

Yes I am sure there are lots of examples of a better divi. I think we all feel frustrated because of the lack of responsiveness of the sp @ moment. Hopefully the price moves up soon.

As far as the low div yield, a policy of 50% payout of PAT on mining stock that actually makes profits is very good.

Trav, what do you mean low asset value, the company has nearly $4b net assets.

I guess 2022 eps is 50c, which is 23 times earnings.

If Gold averages $1910 in 2023 and silver averages $24(@$1.22) than it's trading at give or take 11 times 2023 earnings, but please correct me if I am wrong