Member Info for UpDownFlat

How would you even calculate the fair value of gold ? I thought fair value was a subjective calculation based on ROI that no one even agrees on.

"Gold is not far off it's fair value, silver has room, but that isn't how it behaves"

How do you know this ?

I try to be as mathematical as possible. I build a quarterly excel model, detailed at topline, with actual and forecast. Make assumptions on costs, apply weighted fx rates , averages achieved. I use multipliers and ratios where I can.

The result of this approach suggest that if things are the same in the future as they are now, this share should go higher over time.

How can you tell ?

Valuation is really an opinion. On my timeline I see this at £35 mid next year, depending on some things.

Based on a model with average prices achieved and volumes this should max out around £23 based on full year 2025 data ( with 1 quarter left being a forecast), but this should only really be achieved by March/April next year. So now this is trading purely on the price of gold and silver. Having said that if we look at 2026 we get a big uplift in averaged prices again if PM stay at these levels. Which could move this to +-£35 if there are no unexpected events. But this is really a June 2026 number and is dependant on a lot of "If's"

So did you shrot lse2000 ?

Yes sorry I couldn't bring myself to pay $100k or even $1k for a cryptocurrency, its just a made up piece of information. The marginal value will tend to near zero on the future.

LWHL, yes a digital currency might be on the cards as it is controllable. It's not that I reject that vision of the future, it's just bleak when presented.

I think they can eliminate fiat currency but they can't eliminate physical gold or silver which will explode higher under such a scenario due to general mistrust of the government.

Wow LWHL

Taking into account T+2 is Fres ex Divi now

This has scope to go higher, it just depends on timing.

Based on metrics I learned it seems that FRES is quite undervalued.

Why would interest rates reducing be good for a company with billions of cash ? Also how do you calculate fully valued ?

Based on that Fres looks very cheap at the moment.

Fres market cap is 5 x FCF , and 6.5 times physical cash.

I guess the interim dividend will be a lot higher.

My belief is that today was just a pitstop if PM's hold.

Whatever happens tomorrow the trajectory is still up due to the price of precious metals. Personally I am more than happy to hold the shares.

It could go up or down on Q2 production, but it is certainly not currently priced for Silver at $39