Member Info for UpDownFlat

And I also add, at that (mid 2022) point it is slightly foward looking i.e three years of cash not two.
But is is perfectly reasonable to predicit 20p share price increase every 6 months from now.

PS fully diluted by then

CofE,

my opion is as follows. Yes it will go to £1 at around +- the middle of 2022. This does not require share buyback . By then based on Gold at $1650 POG should generate $1.2B cash over the periods from now until then. They do not need to pay off the $500m bond, simply roll it over. It is infact negative if they do pay it off. They will refi at a much lower interest rate. This is because what is important is not the amount of debt but the Debt to EBITA ratio. As I mentioned previosuly this will correct this year, based on a trailing 12 months calculation. They accumulation of cash will simply add value, on a dollar for dollar basis. This is based on a PE of 12.

So I pedicit within 24 months this will be £1

I wonder if IRC could sell POG a helicopter, it might mean that POG is the only guarantor on the debt, therefore if IRC cannot repay all the debt, I wonder if POG could potentially take control of their assets ??? Again though to my previous point annual repayments are not a large amount

Well there leverage should go down from a very shaky 6 times to a very respectable 2 ish times at the interim results. This would be a sign to the world that this company is no longer highly indebted.

Maybe you are right IRC do well. The point is even if they dont it is not that significant.

Dilution will happen, another 1B shares less $125M debt. Worst case IRC is shut for two years and we have to make $20m a year payment. If that does happen gold will be way past $2000.

I wish I had the capital

thanks for the welcome.

CofE are you suggesting to me not to say things on this board, by questioning my motives?

Don’t mis-understand, perhaps the gold run now is not really the right thing for this share as it masks too many of the company’s net positives. Also, a virus is not a great thing.

This company is currently on a PE of 4 to 5 if you look at 2020 earnings based on gold at $1,681. There are lots of companies with a third of POG's 2020 earnings at similar MC's.

Gold should be at $2000 anyway forget the virus, just based on crazy money printing.

And for the sake of transparency I own 3.1M shares

I think people need to do all their calcs fully dilute. Even so this is going up multiples over the next few years. It is a classic turnaround. I encourage all prospective shareholders to do the calc's, they are impressive.

Forget the past. I realise you are a long-time owner I have read many of your comments over the years.

typo I meant $1550 not £1550. That should be enough to make tons of money buying this share

I suppose it all depends on your time frame. I also went through the rights issue.
But, this is our time now. This share should recover to £1 over a couple of years, even if, gold is just stable around £1550.

Perhaps we could aid that process by posting some useful information here for potential newcomers, without pumping. It is quite a complex stock to understand.

I get, $4.8M worth of cash p.a. for $10 increase, based on 680 0000 Vol

Actually, IRC is not that relevant. If they fail to pay $10m repayment, we can pay it for them. Its small by comparison to the cash this company will generate in the next few years. Regarding proof of all the other items like C/F, it's a question of doing the math on the 2020 Fcst at the current gold price.

They won’t repay debt, it's net debt that will be going down. This is what the covenants are measured on, and how they are seen externally. If cash goes up, net debt goes down. I believe 2020 was always their target for a return to divided, albeit a small token one.

Costs per ounce going down, volume going up, debt going down, cashflow going up, ratio's going to normal, IP built and in place providing a steady gold production.
Dividend declaration imminent. Board stable. FTSE listing. Extremely undervalued.

As long as gold price holds up this company will be a cash generator. With Interest rates going down gold is going up.

The fear related to takeover or acquistion is a little speculative at the moment.

Just wait until interim results and and this share will be skyrocketing.