Member Info for UpDownFlat

Based on Gold at $2000, yes this "should" be above £1 in 12 months. Will it be ? We can only hope.

I saw this on ADFN a few days ago and checked today and it seems to be true. Share volume traded in Russia is higher then in the UK.

PVX233,
its not the POX volume I am concerned with, its the slow reduction of their tradional volume when they keep reporting increased reserves.

Yes lets watch the RNS, if conversion happens its for one of two reasons:
A. They want to use the votes to take-over the board.
or
B. They are playing fair with the shareholders

Interesting read.
Something that does bother me about the current set-up is the following:
Mineable reserves keep going up, both refractory and non-refractory, yet non-pox volume is declining. This is at a point in time when gold is at an all-time high. Pavel keeps discussing long term sustainability. He doesn’t seem like someone who wants to strike while the iron is hot and capitalise on the gold price. Also why was the Temi chosen to mine next ?
If ICG can be believed, I agree with what they are saying.

Retiredbanker,
On page 71. The exchange price of 0.135 is adjusted down by the value of the dividend each time a dividend is paid.

Actually, let me correct that their is one reason. A collapse of the dollar.

Retired Banker,

I don’t think your logic works. Under no circumstances is it beneficial for the bondholders to convert. If they do they:
1. Lose cash interest money for 4 years
2. Probably structured tax advantages if they are using a tower scheme.
3. All sorts of anti-dilution protections offered in their contract.

Why? For a dividend they get anyway due to their bond contract through a true-up based on the convertible price.

There is no financial reason for them to convert.

What is bothering me is Charlotte Philipps & Katia Ray. Both members of the old BOD, now being relegated to the dark side by Prosperity. Why is that?

lots and lots of smoke regarding the ethical behaviour of the old BOD. There is no smoke without fire, so from a long-term private shareholders perspective the boardroom battle might just be the best thing to happen. Maybe if they get a good BOD, UK funds would be more willing to invest.

Max,
you are right, we don’t want 40p we want £1 or greater. This is not going to achieve that in the next few weeks. It is a 12-18 month transformation. Better to get this out in the open now honesty has always been the elephant in the room.

I dont think the investigation is necessarly a bad thing for shareholders. I think Pavel makes an excellent CEO/COO if we have an honest BOD looking out for the shareholders interests. One way or another we get a new BOD soon.

Mike1,

From memory they got 39% last time. This is a rough calc but as you say (6% , I had their convertibles at 8% of convertible) 28/106 = 26.5, add in the 17% bring to 43.5%. So this is 1.5% lower. Still its going to be a close vote, unless others convert. I wonder who has been buying late last week ?

With conversion UGC will have around 45% of the vote if you assume that the other parties who voted with them last time are still there in some form and vote with them again. So unless some of the pro establishment group convert this is going to be a very close vote. Should be interesting to watch the RNS announcements on who has been buying shares.

I am curious about the cash. It seems that application of cash of around $90m in reduction of pre-paid gold and an increase in the cash position. This still leaves about $60m unaccounted for. Therefore, I would be expecting to see either an increase in working capital or capex of that amount in H1.

Prosperity need to put their money where their mouth is and convert.

Rusty,

give me the page number and I will have a look. I see the 11m loss on the old bonds but no profit.

I think that this is being valued at a 50:50 positive vs negative outcome at the moment, whereas I think the outcome is more likely 80% chance of a positive outcome and 20% chance of a negative outcome. It would be quite difficult for this to go belly up. It’s not an AIM stock. This is a growing FTSE 250. I am not sure why the company is dragging their heels on calling the AGM. It does give credence to the conspiracy theory that maybe they are all in this together to buy the shares at a depressed price. I am certainly not selling. This should be a £1 in 12 months.

Please anyone correct me if I have got this wrong, but as far as I understand the background to IRC is as follows:
POG invest $100M ++ (???) in building out IRC. They give away some of the shares to General Nice but they don’t get paid for these. They sign a guarantee on the company’s debt out of the goodness of their heart and at personal cost to them. Now that things are turning around, they want to give away the rest of the company for $10m which will probably be eaten up with costs.
My question is who is benefiting from this, and do they have holding company in Cypress or the Cayman islands?
Maybe a forensic audit could focus on uncovering the identities behind some of these holding companies.

Redrobb,
nice input and I think their is a case/risk here, but I think you might mean Cabs & Slevin (who I thought owned 12.5%) not the variouse elements of prosperity(Who I thought had influence over 20%) as they are on the other side. Easy mistake since there are so many actors in this little drama. Bring on the GM