Member Info for UpDownFlat

But, James Cameron seems quite good.

This company is slowly doing a massive turn around. We shouldnt expect it to happen overnight. These thing play out over a couple of years.

I dont think this comes back to the P&L at a later date. But it is technical, not operational.

If the sharecapital is a credit on the balance sheet, the debit has to go somewhere. Nowdays the bottom of the P&L. Pity this item affects Non-Underlying EPS.

Rusty,
correct this is good, there are no unexpected material negative items.
I think the BOD should offer Pavel a deal, POG calls off the forensic audit and he stops attacking the company.

L3,
$50m debt reduction in a quarter is not that bad. Gold is higher in the second half. I do agree though, they need to get the interest payments down quickly.

What’s nice to see is the board recognising that shareholders have been treated badly. I didn’t think off the conversion effect on profit (one might wonder how they could book this at interim ?), but underlying profit is $100m. Volume is down per full year estimate, which implies that they did have stoppages in Q3 due to political turmoil, irrespective of what they say. Cashflow is tracking to $180m full year (after tax, Interest and capex)

Maybe there was a mistake due to inexperience. The run rates and phasing seem quite strange. I think we will find out tomorrow when we see Q3 production.

For the full year 2020, not the interim. On the interim they will have a lower average Gold price but we know htey paid off $60m of the prepaid/Debt. Also the conversion came after the interim so in reality their Debt is around $700m at interim. but by full year this should be down for repayment of another $120m and down by $85m of conversion, so I think full year accounts(March next year) will proably be below $500m.

Rusty,
I bought first at 63p in 2013, and took full part in the 15:1 offering so I have been folowing them for a long time. Even if they do $0 of third party this year they still make $140m cash. We know this is not true though.

The difference is the price of gold and massively improved margins.

Last year POG made $20m cash flow. This year, 2020, they make $180m based on recent estimates.
Next year, If gold price stays where it is ($1900), they make close to double that.

Actually this should be fully repaid by the end of the year from cashflow, so it will only possibly be high for the interim. Maybe the auditor would take a different position.

Workingstiff,
yes unfortunately. Makes no difference to us we already knew since at least April that POG had to repay this. But as a leading authority on debt has called it ‘debt’ I believe it will be called debt.
Just pre warning you get the spin from amurinfo.net.Pavel.xxx.org

Actually I think we were really lucky to get the cure as we proably breeched on other basis in 2019.

Yes,
it does still concern me what will come up in the interim audit but I believe the biggest item will probably be the restatement of debt to $700m. I think the concealment of this and the lack of proper systems and accounting are why the audit companies either declined or made a swift departure. Either way it does demonstrate that they can manage a large scale financial transaction.

Lets hope we get interim's and a cure.

Kenj,
If you look in other payables the advances are there. This means POG do not have to hit to the P&L. The ratios won’t look as good as they could but it still means they were burning more cash then they implied. I am completely in agreement we don’t want to rehash this; I bring it up purely because we have other people on this board (Not you or Rusty) complaining about "jumping over the turnstiles" and I just wanted to remind them what crooked really looks like. I actually feel very positive about POGS future and our future rewards.

Rusty,
I agree with your statement that the interims will be interesting reading. I think they will show net debt around $700m. There is an issue here, what did they spend this money on. Did it cover loses? I think since AISC is around $1050 and Gold didn’t go much below that, this was spent on interest for the $500m bonds that the company couldn’t afford to pay and was slowly accumulating. Therefore, I contend that if it had not been for the price of Gold it would have been bankrupt by 2022. And management knew that and therefore made false statements.

Kenj,
that’s what the S&P said when they downgrade the bond rating last week. They said “we call it debt”, and I would imagine everyone else in the world would call it debt too. Thankfully the high gold prices will mean that this can be repaid by year end.

My whole point is that this just materialised. In any medium sized company, if $180m of debt just materialises, the management team would be gone.

Rusty,
I looked at the RNS historically and you are correct, this is just dilution due to others converting. They have the same absolute number of shares.

On the $180M (Dec 19, $121M June 20) , prepaid gold /overdraft/debt, this really seems like it was a surprise to everyone, including the ratings agencies. Personally, I compare these historic things vs the crime of jumping over a turnstile (That’s why he needed athletes who could do the hurdles) to retrieve the company’s data. Shareholders might want to think about who they support.