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It is really a pity that things escalated this far. Let’s hope that this allows employees, management and shareholder to move on (including Pavel) and focus on 2021.

He needs to have a fair hearing, but whatever the outcome hopefully this means the company can move forward without his constant interference.

Pavel taken in for questioning by police

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-12-24/Former-Petropavlovsk-CEO-detained-and-interrogated.html

Yes have a good xmas everyone

And what is dodgy about buying shares to cast a vote ?

Rusty, you are such a forgiving person.

Rusty,

Ok this is how I judge good.
1. The track record of Denis, who led a 600% share price increase at his previous company while paying a dividend.
2. J C as chairman making clear and direct no bull statements

This is how I judge bad
3. The track record of Pavel who destroyed 95% of the shareholders’ investment over 10 years, while not paying a dividend, but not skipping on the bonuses.
4. Wodderwick Lynn who spent 10 years telling shareholders how wonderful POG was doing.

LTIP’s are very common. Pavel had LTIP. It’s not a freebee you don’t get good people without paying for them and in the past POG seems to have been paying an awful lot to poor management.

Investor3,

I don’t think this is a fashionable stock with momentum. It is not a quick buck.

It is a company that is undergoing structural change, going from highly leveraged to less risky. It is going from bad management to good management.
In two year’s (with favourable conditions and good strategic decisions) this company will be paying high dividends and have low to no debt and then it will be valued based on this. At that point sentiment will matter less then real return.

The external conditions are perfect for this to happen. It needs to be left to mature for a year, look how things have transformed over the last year already.

There are a few market indicators that are really quite positive at the moment for POG.

- Iron Ore 65% was at $187/t on the 21st, Last year this was $102/t. This is $85/t of drop though for IRC
- Gold is around $1870 at the moment, Ave price for 2020 is around $1760. At this level POG makes lots of cash
- Inflation expectations are rising (Probably due to commodities), 5Yr was 2% on the 21st, the highest for 18 months. This is part of the negative yield calculation and feeds into the price of Gold.

Its really quite difficult not to be positive towards POG in this enviroment.

I see Alya had her claim dismissed on the 27th of November by a UK employment tribunal.

What really needs to be investigated for insider trading is her sale of shares before the EGM in 2020

At $1900 for Gold POG would need to get an incremental 130,000 ounces out of the 25% stake, over three years to break even over a three-year period. Anything longer and I don’t think the Gold price holds, so I personally don’t believe it is a good return on investment to buy the last 25%. But then I don’t know the details around the mining of it, maybe TEMI can deliver 390k ounces of GOLD in three years ????

It will be interesting to see what DA does because he is not dis-honest like Pavel.

smalltrader,

the S&P has POG paying a $30M dividend next year and they are quite pessimistic. I think they first approve a dividend policy, and then declare a $30m final divi in March, with the accounts payable in May.

I also think that if Gold stays where it is they pay an equivalent amount in November as an interim.

I am really keen to see the new plan. Maybe end of Jan or April ?

RB
IRC produce 700,000 tonnes a quarter, average price in Q4 was $150 per tonne for 65% FE , cash cost is $48 per tonne. discount is maybe 30%. Cashflow is probably the closest approximation to profit we have, maybe you deduct $30m for depreciating/tax/Interest in the quarter. This gets you to a Q4 profit of ..............
Its quite hard to see how you get to an annual profit of only $15m

Unlike POG, IRC has its costs under control and is already a low cost producer. A $5 reduction in costs feels small vs. $100 increase in price.

Hopefully gold goes up, then it doesn't matter to much.

Gross margin,

you can think of this from a bottom up approach 8.5% cost of capital + 5% general overhead + 5-10% new investment or you can look at the historic results. I am not saying it's exactly 20% because it depends on the size of the company but I personally believe they lose money(and cash) on 3d party.

It's also quite historic, that POG loses money at 20% GM

Rusty,

I fully understand, but if POG are losing money (and cash ) on it, which they might be at 10% GM , then they should not be doing it. Really they shouldnt have built an empty POX hub.