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I think BP achieve a twelve months trailing P/E of 6 at Q3. And if they gas prices stay where they are for another week, they hit that or better in Q4.

Buyback should last another four weeks +-

There are only 8 more days in the quarter/month. P/E is going to drop with Q3 results. BP will have 1st month of Q4 gas prices set. I think this might be possible if the gas stations are starting to achieve what they have historically.

He does seem to have landed one of the more difficult roles, and he is smiling.

It does seem a slightly different tone, just in time for COP26

Joe Biden has said to contain the price he wants to hunt down the "bad actors".
I wonder if he has thought of looking in Hollywood.

The big difference between this and previous buy backs is that BP is currently buying at about 40% of the price of previous buy backs.

Governments are starting to panic about oil and gas prices. I can see a sharp u turn in policies and narrative coming very shortly.

Maybe there was a large seller who had to be cleared from the market which is why the price wasn’t moving upwards. This combined with a fear that FF price rises where a temporary phenomenon.
With BP buying YTD 1.5% and the Chinese buying 1.5% that should have cleared things out.
Now what we need is some excellent Q3 results and gas prices locked in for October on a first of the month basis and hopefully this can go up.

Wind currently produces half of the power generated by coal in the USA,(10%) and solar next to nothing.

BP is strategically moving to gas. This makes sense. As there will be big demand over the next 20 Years during the transition.

Will going to electric vehicles require 100% increase in gas prices ?

Nice move today.

Or a permanent 15% cut in global GDP might get rid of coal.

I believe once the scale of decarbonisation is seriously considered, the first objective will be to remove coal from the mix. In parts of the world like the USA coal provides a serious amount of power. It would take years just to get rid of coal.
$3.5T “so called” infrastructure will not make even the smallest dent in the power simply supplied by coal.
They will never remove coal unless the substitute it with gas, and that it not so easy either. Unfortunately, the politicians aren’t interested in the problem, they are interested in the social media.

https://russiabusinesstoday.com/energy/rosneft-gas-could-enter-eu-via-nord-stream-2/

Maybe ...$200m a year for BP

Domtaz agreed, total nonsense.

Zac,
you might not like or agree with their plan for the next 10 years, but at least they have one. This is a lot more than can be said for the majority of companies.

And they are currently having the best year they have had in many years.

Cong,

I have similar numbers, $700m spent QTD. This is 50% of the total. Under the same conditions they have 27 trading days worth of buying left.

Zac,

What about BP's profit share of Rozneft vostock, about 350m bpd. This covers maybe 30-40 % of the reduction. What about the expansion in service stations. This is where they were making their money pre-pandemic. So it is not true to say there is nothing to cover the decline in oil & gas production.

I think the effect of GOM will be around $350m lost profit on production(12/24 days, since half their production is operating) and maybe $100m repairs (which is definitely insured).

To counter this vs. Q2 :

They have had $1b from the rise in Gas prices (before IDA).
Oil 4$ higher ($350m)
Re-opening in several markets where their stations exist. This was a large contributor to their profits historically. (This should increase by $500m+ due to seasonality)
Maybe their trading arm can offset some of the Ida disruption?

Q3 looks better than Q1.

Gas demand is rising, so is energy demand. LPG is currently 1.5 times more expensive then petrol.