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which is an indictment on their 10% ROR

If you believe they are going to deliver more than 10% (Divi +SP growth) in the next 12 months, they should buy back their own shares.

If BP is going to deliver more than 10% (Divi + Growth in share price) this year, they are compounding (by a sizeable fraction) your return by buying back their own shares. Obviously, that grows over time, and it depends on if you have a 1 week or 1 year horizon. After 6 months - 1 year we start to see an effect.

Around 6-8 weeks of share price support. And all the time the number of shares very slowly drains from the market. It does feel a little like downside protection, and the company is buying an investment delivering more than their own internal ROR at a very cheap PE

Does this mean $80/b by the end of the summer ?

Q3 isn’t looking bad so far.

I believe he specifically mentioned the oil price was $50/b in their forecast, which is why I believe this was their budget done in Aug/Sep 2020. Either way, not the best CFO.

I think they have no choice as management but to do substantial buybacks of shares so as not to look incompetent.

It's a worst-case model produced in September 2020 during the hight of covid.

It’s really difficult to see how they could have a cashflow deficit in Q2 due to GOM payment considering they have cut back their capex by $12b p.a. vs 2018 when POO was similar and reduced their divi by $4.4b p.a. Just these two items are a cash increase of $4b per quarter.

I see 2022/2023 a good time for POG

I do believe I will be back. I sold in batches at various times.

I am out around 24p average sale price, had 3.5m shares. I am watching for certain things, but POG could be a buy if ........

Actually, I think marginal producers will be starved of financing, meaning perhaps no large increases in oil supply.

Since they made +-$1.7b incremental cash(On Q1) operationally and didn’t have to invest +-$2b in W/C build and carried over $1.2b from Q1/Q2 I assume their excess superfluous cash if around somewhere greater then $1B

$40M a day seemed to do the trick last time, and several days they didnt even buy.

Last time it lasted 15 trading days. Will it last 45 trading days, thats almost a quarter !

Will the buyback be $1B or $1.5B ?

In Q1 BP bought under £3.10. In Q2 when they have more firepower will they stick to £3.10 ?

Also consider that IRC proably currently counts for about 1/3 of POG's enterprise value.