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Just been busy.......Here’s a thought there is William Hill being bid for by a US peer which held a 20% of their US division. That 20% holding now appears very useful in the now agreed acquisition- as they were going to ditch the JV in the US had the deal
not gone through. 20% or 25% is leverage - just wait and see what CD&R do next. My guess they will provide debt to SIG to buy other foundering U.K. construction materials groups.......! Still only 25p I add - so no great recovery holding - this will drift like a leave on a pond for some time I’m afraid.....

Prof - Do you honestly think CD&R strategy is just join a recovery.....? They have created the 25p floor - and rather uni spring news makes the share drop below that.....yesterday and a further -8% today. They have got it bang on, and Francis needed their cash.....and the raise. This whole enterprise value is only £262m......for a business that takes £600m per quarter in revenue - If they lifted that to 2% nett profit on revenue that is £12m profit per quarter or £50m annual. Which FTSE250 Market leader company do you know do that is valued at 5x EBIT.....NONE. CD&R are circling now and they will pick it off - all they need to do is take IKOs holding from them and they are there with ‘have to bid...’ situation. All PIs as usual would capitulate and take the cash and run- whatever the price was.....Once PE have their claws in your business, just accept its their way or out.....

This is a joke........if everybody just quit buying and selling the share would at least slow its decline.....

Wilmsy, ponder this, remember the presentation that a Steve have all up beat (car crash access, but that’s tech for you) and the update of yesterday. As you say funeral springs to mind. The CD&R guys are all over this going forward - and they will literally rape the company until they control it......Sad but true...!

That must code for the ‘ensure CD&R get the whole lot at a huge discount - and they will pay me handsomely in cash and then buy the knock down shares.....they must think we were all born yesterday...FFS

I know and all the time - others thought they just wanted a small piece of the action......bla, bla,bla...

Really - he is spending our money on his shares at this price.....brass neck or what....

Raleigh - you are right. The business will be delivered in to the private equity hands at a knock down price - low 30’s. Buy it out for £300m and turn it around in three years and sell off for £900m - tidy profit on that......The key mechanism is the 25p entry point for CD&R....that is a woeful value extracted by Francis. Period.

PE are all about ownership and control - they do not do the half in half out. The clever bit in so far as I can see is the fact their man Francis allowed them to obliterate the share price to 25p for 25% of the company. That was the first I scratch your back etc.... He then puts out a less than encouraging RNS and states the rest of the year will be as bad. All the shareholders then get frustrated at the low price and drifting - and then bingo an offer comes in from CD&R for heather balance at 32p based on a languishing share price of 24p - 26p.......All I do is repeat myself here - the barbarians are already through the gate........

This is going private equity.....and Francis is oiling the wheels for it to happen.

This share is likely to be becalmed in the next 6 months - which will in some cases be painful as it will have locked in cash - as its noting a loss. CD&R will slowly but surely up their holding as investors drop out. I also mention the fact not play was made of the new house build market in the interims, I think that is telling in that - the demand is high currently and they have exposure for that segment. I would agree with Prof - that RNS has played things down for some reason - no idea why others than a strategy adopted by CD&R......

Spot on......and will be proved right.

So your theory is no more than wait a share out and after maybe many year you might make a profit. I’m afraid that is not a strategy........CD&R have pegged the share back to 25p - that is where you need to be - not the 30p IKO raise to be aligned to the prospects of the company now. The signals were there in the share price over the last two weeks......this was a caller this morning.

On balance those in at 30p to 35p should be OK if a bid is made. Not great returns but escape at least. I’d be very wary of following a recovery, as the markets are very volatile with CV. CD&R have the fire power alone to bid for the balance - so don’t rule anything out. For me there are too many coincidences on Francis - he goes interim CEO, CEO, Bonused CEO and at the same time let’s the PE guys in the door. It’s too smooth in my view and all this has happened in a few short months. The tone of the RNS is very subdued which in my view has helped the share price down a leg again. This all plays in to CD &Rs hands for a further chunk or outright bid. The fluff around local service, know the customers, widen the offering are just too wordy for me. I think he/they are walking the price down over the next few months and then a bid appears whilst averaging down themselves as they go.......even at 30p or thereabouts over the next 6 months would make a bid at 40p look attractive.....

Correct - Any opportunity to buy at the 25p or under (this morning) is aligning your investment to that of CD&R. I therefore did not buy in to the raise and as said before purchased at 22p and 34p to level at 30p average. I see the real buy in point at 20p ish. You are then protected from ramping and nonsense by others. You’ll thank me later for this....

Pointless.....

They have confirmed in advance and in P9 that there is margin and profit issues ( ponder for a minute where the share price would be if the raise hadn’t gone through = losses and higher debt). Sadly and I do mean sadly - the turnaround is a year off at least and the share price will drift for months - probably locking substantial paper losses for many. But CD&R are sitting nicely at 25p, they are smarter than most I fear. More worryingly - if there is a decline in market conditions that profit becomes more elusive. Cutting costs and hiring aren’t good bed fellows. I repeat - this will be bid for at 35p to 40p turning CD&R a tidy profit and that is all. To quote a famous investor - ‘never waste a crisis...’ My guess is CD&R have a short term play as that is what is driving market conditons opportunity - SIG needed the cash they saw the target or punt and took the 25% equity. If you could make a substantial return for 12 months work - we would take it too. PE don’t just rock up and say how can we help - they have a plan and will execute with Francis onboard. They must be an acquisition target now - open season as this will not move for months or even drop further. Watch this space- also I haven’t been far away from the right assumptions on this and yes I am not keen on Francis - as his CV is not relevant to this turnaround.....

Keep nursing that loss, mate. I did try and communicate the potential downside of today, but it was ignored. A CEO of a big enterprise needs to have extensive experience in the sector - Francis does not have this at all. That is a worry to me, but as I have been saying he is the CD&R guy who will do as he is told by the 25% holder. This is now where SIG are and the PIs need to get used to it.

Good luck reviving that share price Steve, it maybe not worth it ...

No need to get bitter - given the kick in the mist you got this morning......you made the decision and fed the the hype....