Member Info for unhooked

... although Hexam isn't wrong - it can be v hard work debating with conspiracy theorists. Fact!

I'd just add that sometimes the market can be (seemingly) random in how it moves. As rational creatures we naturally look for patterns to explain things, but we must also allow for the possibility that these patterns sometimes break down for no obvious or rational reason... I say that's the market!

Maybe it's just a reflection of the differences between people in how they see these things. I'm naturally indisposed towards conspiracy theories, whereas I have quite a few friends, by no means stupid, who are naturally predisposed to them - they love and they genuinely believe in them! Where I might see a breakdown in a previous pattern as a random, unexplained thing (and all patterns based on empirical evidence do break down eventually) and leave it at that, others need to find some sort of reason - often a hard to prove and therefore conspiratorial reason - to explain (what I consider) the unexplainable. It's an interesting debate though - very on topic, what with social media and A.I. and all.

T4G, agree it depends how you define 'long term'. But if you accept that over the long term (however you define it) the share price is determined by company trading performance, then it follows that you are also accepting that you cannot for years and forever blame manipulation for the low sp.

About your specific Asos example, as I say, I haven't looked at it, but from what you've said here, it occurs to me, couldn't this be a simple case of bad news getting excessively punished and good news not getting credited rather than any great conspiracy? Hasn't this happened with a lot of other shares in the present investment climate?

T4G, when it comes to believing or not believing in manipulation, you are missing the important qualification "over the long term". Most books on long-term investing - I'm sure you've read many of them - say that the share price of a company has a tendency to reflect, in one way or another, the trading and financial performance of that company. One theory (for instance) states that share price growth relates closely to the growth in free cash cash flow over the very long term. I've never read a theory that says long-term share price performance is down to the manipulation of shorters and MMs. No one - at least not me - is saying they don't believe manipulation exists over shorter periods. Hence, your Asos example may indeed be explained by some kind of manipulation (I don't know, I haven't studied it), but, over the longer term, Asos' performance will be the main determinant of its share price.

Re: the issue of funding, I'm wondering if it is better to address the issue asap and get it done with, or to wait a few more months in the hope that the financing picture improves? Also, might they be delaying the funding question until after the release of further good news, which they might be expecting and which should help the sp, or am I being too optimistic? I live in hope!

I hear you Alex, but I'm firmly in the camp that says the 'dark arts' of MM/shorters cannot explain share price performance over the long-term. Remember, many shorters are shorting simply because they see a deterioration in intrinsic or fundamental value not yet reflected in the sp... and, let's face it, they haven't been entirely wrong in that assessment over the past 2 years.

Alex, you're mixing things up. People saying suppression is a figment of the imagination are not necessarily saying that the low sp reflects intrinsic value. That is something quite different - the sp can (and may well be) below intrinsic or 'true' value due to a myriad of factors including general sentiment, macro factors, reputational concerns, etc., nothing to do with suppression by MM/shorters, which is what they are referring to.

I do like the straightforward and transparent way CMCL report their results, including the failings. I'm prepared to hang on for the better times they are promising.

Don't hold yr breath Lincoln...

T4G, I agree there is bickering on all sides. You are - all of you - quite capable of making useful points when yr not indulging in a bicker. For instance, I enjoy your posts on the detail of the company and it's operations (not much the MM/shorts stuff), because you've clearly done yr research and I learn things from you. When the bickering kicks off one learns to just skim over it. If one struggles to do that, there's always the filter button.

Good find.

T4G, do you really think these boards influence the share price? That explains some things.

I think the attacking of Pedro betrays a defensive mindset and a lack of confidence in the attackers' views. Although I'm an unhappy LTH hanging on in hope, Pedro's posts don't bother me at all - in fact I find them funny. He has a way with words and a way of driving home his points relentlessly... but his comments don't influence me. That said, I wish they had 2 years ago!

Nasty drop this morning on no news. I know yesterday was ex-divi day, but we're down nearly 15% since Monday.

Share price performance not good enough for the previous LTIP from 2021 to work out, but don't worry, we'll devise a new one with easier metrics. Classic!

Doesn't make it a smart decision though. Also, they added a shed load ( about £1.5m worth) in a POLX capital raise between Jan and July 2021, when the price was, it would appear, massively higher. We can surmise that that top-up was a big, fat whoops!

I also don't think Amati are in the business of buying and selling shares to teach management lessons, they do it to make money... or not!

Anyway, maybe they stop selling at 10.9%... but today's drop makes me wonder.

Brutal indeed. If it is Amati causing this fall, they are mad bailing out at these levels and at this time, having held so long.

I look at the RNSs and see nothing but good news! OK, perhaps the market is slightly spooked by the company feeling the need to RNS every sale of a single cylinder (as it kind of implies sales aren't booming), but I nonetheless considered that Philips collaboration news, which came out on 2/6/23, to be very material indeed. Besides, as has been said here, sales don't necessarily take off the very moment FDA approval is granted... it can take time... and POLX had $16.2m in the bank as at 31/12/23.

With investment decisions like this, no wonder the Amati VCT is at the very bottom of my UK Small Cap league table for 2023 , at -21% over the 8 months.

Ok, it's come back a bit. Judging by the companies on today's loser board, it seems to be a sector-wide thing.

Unexpected drop today on no news I can discern. It's bad enough when news comes out, need this like a hole in the head.

A very disappointing day. Considering the scion purchase, I was hoping for much better.

Nobody loves a BOO it seems...

All of this should be good news for the company, yet the market studiously ignores it and seems to have concluded that TLY is a value trap. I accept, there are pitfalls in taking on these govt contracts - some of these staffing and cost efficiency issues that have beset the NHS, will also, inevitably, affect the private providers... but I still think the company is well managed and I continue to have faith in Chairman Holt to get things back on track. First and foremost, they need to carefully pick & choose their contracts from all this govt work apparently becoming available and price them correctly. Why shouldn't they be able to do that? Anyway, the market disagrees with me and this share has become hated.