focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
'of the 10,850,000 Placing Shares in respect of the Placing. It is expected that the Placing Shares will be admitted to trading and dealings will commence on the LSE on or around 14 May 2024 ("Admission"). '
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HELD/placing-issue-of-equity-1p7ra29qt2q8014.html
Today is the 16th, and the ask price has dropped to 2p.
I guess that means the shares were added to market this morning...
and we now have a 10m sellwall to push through before we can see a higher SP again?
I'm no pro/level2 investor though, this is just conjecture without access to the order book.
I remain optimistic about HELD.
I'm long, unil they post revenues at least, so this is another opportunity to average down before that.
I initially bought it at around 8p (post-RS price), but started last month at 3.9p, now down to 3.39 and going lower.
I understand frustration with the low SP, but it has been trending down since the IPO.
IMO anyone expecting long-term trend reversal prior to first revenues has made a very poor investment.
That isn't on anyone who is holding, it's on market makers who lower the bid/ask whenever the trades dry up.
As I understand it from the October '23 RNS: The Agricultural Research Ministry 'Elgo Dimitra' are growing unique mother plants for Hellenic Dynamics' initial strain library, which will likely be used to offer POD clients live clones?
Cross-breeding strains and picking likely mother plants is easy, but stabilising those traits to seed so you can grow a backup if the mother dies, is hard.
After stabilizing the traits, multiple harvests are needed to confirm potency before commercial production. Even if they're meeting the most optimistic targets possible, the people overseeing this process are the government, who probably demand exclusive right of access to parts of the site they occupy & refuse to give an update before the new strains are licensed and legally protected.
I don't think 6 months is enough time to develop new strains from seed to licensed crop, but it is possible they have the strains stabilised now, and have been able to show a strain catalogue to their new investor.
That HELD got this amazing 1m financing deal at least implies someone with deep pockets has seen behind the curtain, approved, and put their money where their mouth is.
This is all pure speculation on my part, but HELD seems to be progressing smoothly now. I don't get why anyone is selling.
As discussed in the investor call screenshots,( https://fxtwitter.com/Blowster85/status/1775431672034394224?s=20 ) HELD's advantage is that Greece doesn't allow cannabis imports, which -should- mean HELD can get better than market prices renting their first PODs out to the Greek domestic market.
This is likely why they got the sweet loan deal. Nothing to do with Germany, the US, or whatever our new ramper friends are on about.
When the company entered the market through SPAC merger, shares in the SPAC were locked up for 12 months, ending 5th December 2023.
The SPAC investors bought in at 3p a share, and it looks to me like any time the price hits 4p they buy the orderbook back down to 3.0-3.3p
and it looks like what's left of the SPAC has deficient filing at companies house, so maybe they have no choice but to sell.
Speaking as a Brit, in my personal opinion:
I don't think many British patients or doctors would be willing to use OBD's tests if Nigel Farage were the one selling them.
Still, involving him might not be a total waste. A test warning Brits they're at risk of associating with Farage would absolutely fly off the shelves.
On a more serious note:
Private healthcare providers in the UK have to record events on NHS patient records, just like NHS providers do. Our National Health Service, via the NDRS Cancer Registry, is likely tracking use of OBD's tests in its routine data collection from NHS patient records, potentially as N:1 (single patient) trials. If testing improves real-world patient outcomes, this should inform further study by our regulators, and lead to an NHS-backed trial.
In contrast:
A pre-market test cohort big and varied enough to pass regulatory thresholds might have required additional financing, potentially dilutive to equity holders, or delayed launch long enough that OBD were beaten to market. I believe this soft launch is a deliberate strategy, and on balance, it's a reasonable approach.
Sadly, the core issue for me isn't the results themselves.
I don't trust OBD's CEO anymore, so recent hires that share history with him aren't the confidence boost they otherwise should be. Maybe after a full quarter with a sales manager, spring will show some meaningful revenue?
I'd settle for a path to profit backed by non-dilutive finance, but if we're expected to pick up the bill for being misled, it will take replacing Diggle to restore my confidence.
I'm holding, but this was only a punt for me. Not sure I'd trust them with a meaningful amount of my money.
I expect real upwards movement when they sell the first retail crop, but what is growing now seems to be government grown regulatory batches, which are a good sign, but probably an expense, not an asset.
With all the best will in the world, 6-7p based on what?
As I understand it, revenue isn't predicted for at least 6 months.
A 12 month lock-up agreement on SPAC shares ended Dec 5th, followed by a trading pause Dec 8th to admit these shares to the market:
https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HELLENIC-DYNAMICS-PLC-4202033/news/Certain-Ordinary-Shares-of-U-K-Spac-Plc-are-subject-to-a-Lock-Up-Agreement-Ending-on-5-DEC-2023-45497950/
Since that moment, the price has been dictated by large sales at 3 to 3.3p, which knock the prrice back down to 3.3 whenever it lifts over 4p.
These are SPAC investors who bought in at 3p a share, making their exit. Outside of these big sales, the price keeps climbing back up.
I will only worry if the price rests under 3p, which might make the SPAC shareholders panic sell.
In addition, Hellenic Dynamics are not growing flower, this government entity is:
https://agres.elgo.gr/institute-plant-breeding-and-genetic-resources
https://ipgrb.gr/
It wouldn't surprise me if Hellenic Dynamics have handed the keys to IPGRB, and are as anxious for results as we are.
Maybe someone who speaks Greek can look through the grower's websites, or ask for updates?
I wish you all a happy and prosperous 2024.