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TP, the Sp was falling during the whole course of the day. I agree there were late and after hours purchases which means we will see a significant recovery on Monday. It certainly fits with my analysis. Maybe your response was not aimed at me.
Thanks for all your thoughts, a cheap buyout at a low price does not stack up as there would have been no point in him buying stock at a high price. Having had a chance to think about it, I think it was determined shorting with a view to being able to buy in at a much lower price following the grant announcement on Thursday. Maybe institutional buyers.
After yesterday's news, what has happened to the share price and why? I can find no obvious press release.
Peking Duck, I have to disagree with your supposed 47% real dilution figure. It's not that at all. You are way out. The RNS makes clear that the increase in share capital is 26%. However unlike a situation where there is dilution when for instance debt is being written off, here the new shares are being paid for at an 8% discount to the prevailing price. Thus the discount is 8% of the 26%, meaning a real dilution of something just over 2% of the overall share capital.
The increase in capital funding is absolutely necessary to fast track ATM's plans and the cost of that is minimal to the prospective returns. Hence why the share price has not fallen dramatically.
I fully accept that as a proportion of the whole you will have less shares (assuming you have any), but you do have a much bigger cake! In your scenario the share price would have halved.
People refer to the AIM cesspit and market manipulators. The fact is that "sells" massively out weigh "buys" today. There are still many BMN investors nursing losses that just want out. I don't agree with them at all. BMN is demonstrating that it is a profitable growing company that hasn't even started selling electrolyte yet. Personally I am surprised at the depths to which the share price has fallen and it has been said many times it is totally irrational. So it is also with numerous other stocks. One day, and I am surprised it hasn't arrived yet, the penny will drop that this a company that is absolutely vital to world infrastructure and energy storage and whoosh, all the lemmings will run at once. At present overall trading volumes are derisory and hence the continued fall. There is no problem with the management. Inane shareholders always blame the management when a share price falls.
Thanks Lindon, the article in Mining Review which I had read at the time shows the staggering expected growth in the need for Vanadium over the next ten years, more than doubling existing capacity AND potential VRFB growth at a compound rate of over 40% over the next 10 years. The only caution is that as far as VRFB's are concerned they are actually starting from a very low base. Even then so that you can get the picture £1 increased on a 40% compound basis is worth £29 after 10 years. Not bad I would settle for that by way of investment return without an inflationary element as the VRFB figure is actual growth not value.
Squirty, I will try and answer your dilemma, as I see it.
1. BMN has not as yet produced any financials that would induce a large PI to take a large stake in BMN, and the market generally is not au fait with the progress that BMN has been making behind the scenes, in exactly the same way that you are probably not aware of all the "excellent" oppotunities available in the biomedical sector by way of example. Nor do I
2. An investor in FTSE 100 stocks is not going to suddenly invest in AIM co's or other small caps. If you look at the AIM index it was actually 40% higher a year ago. Therefore there are a lot of AIM investors who have lost a lot of money (on paper at least). This means they do not have the resources to further invest unless there is a fundamental opportunity that is put under their noses by the financial press. This takes us back to point 1.
Only my analysis, but I hope that it helps. Hence the major step is BMN showing ongoing growing profitability AND a significant upgrade in Broker's target prices. A steady increase in the Vanadium price will assist as well.
Excellent Alfa, thankyou for all that on behalf of longterm investors. I for one know our day will come, when genuine demand exceeds longterm supply caused as you say by a combination of the spread bet syndrome and market manipulators. Once the financials start to improve, as will be seen in the half year results, matters will change and new investors will quickly realise what they are missing out on. Just my opinion.
KN, I too agree with your comment and I may even break my own internal rules to further increase my BMN holding.
Alfa, I really would appreciate your current take on where we are with BMN as the SP is absurd when compared to the business that has already been built and will be coming on stream. Ignore the trolls.
It is important to note that this newspaper has always (or at least as long as I have been a shareholder), the forum of the organizer of the protesters. Nothing new. Every proposed development will have some protesters. It's called "Nimby syndrome". I am much more interested in the bigger picture and the likes of GALP.
Pdub, as you say the facts are very different from the sp. At the moment there is virtually zero trade, less than £20k's worth so far this morning. Pathetic! If I had more resources I would definitely put it into BMN at this price. There will be not be much greater interest in the shares until the financials demonstrate the company is going places. Not long to wait, and then it should get better quarter on quarter as more and more activities come on stream. Just my opinion.
yes, but it didn't say they mined the vanadium. My suspicion is that it is pretty small beer certainly at the moment as the $2.1m expansion of the electrolyte facility is hardly big bucks. My feeling is that if there were more to them the numbers would actually be mentioned on their website.
What hasn't been mentioned is that Cellcube/Enerox entered into a similar agreemnet with US Vanadium back in February. Look on the US Vanadium website. Do you remember what percentage share BMN has in Enerox?
While on US Vanadium website whilst I could find details of their products, nowhere could I find reference to the Vanadium produced by US Vanadium. Do they buy it all in? if so I wonder where it comes from. Nor could I find any accounts for US Vanadium. I did see that the infamous Terry Perles is a director.
Sammy, I had been about to make exactly the same comment regarding FAR, and it merely shows how ridiculous the discount on the BMN price is. The Chief Executive does not control the share price, you and every other buyer/seller controls it and the fact of the matter is, like it or not, buys are scarce and sells are themselves not massive BUT sells have been exceeding Buys most days of the week for months and only some stonking good finmancial figures are going to change that. The business itself continues to develop well, subject to some relatively minor setbacks viz commissioning Kiln 3 at Vanchem. The last update dealt with production figures not with financials. There is no comparison with FAR, BMN is profitable at current levels light years before FAR even gets into production. It is BMN that is ridiculously cheap.
Excellent news Pdub. Today's results weren't great, but don't really tell you the financial side. The thesis for the investment still hangs together and I am a firm believer that things will be o.k. in the end and in the meantime, life will go on. The only issue is if I had invested money that I desperately needed to cash in.
I actually suspect that it is the downward trend in published v prices over the last few weeks that is much of the issue, added to which buyers are sitting on the sidelines awaiting news. What actually amazes me, and I hope I am not an idiot, is the number of sales going through at this level when the future continues to be bright.
Agree, if he had spent £50k it would be a different matter. This tells us nothing save that either he has no money or he has no confidence, indeed it might have been better if he hadn't bought at all. However it will all be forgotten in due course when the EIA is issued and he kicks himself that he didn't buy more!! The main positive is that he does not know anything, as if he did it would be insider trading. Therefore by deduction there is nothing negative that the company knows.