Member Info for UncleJohn

I actually think we were misled originally by the Appeal process. If you remember the appeal body said that whilst it would recommend the development it could not give a decision and the matter had to be referred back to the original body. Hence that is hardly an appeal process because the original local body has the final say, and therefore there is no reason for it to change its mind. So there is no appeal process as we might know it. I should have realised this.

Haydn Locke I don't think would be getting more involved again if he believed this was a dead duck. Why would he? It would merely tarnish his CV and he has quite a few shares.

Inevitably, the guy on Stockbox wasn't that well informed, as the company has clearly said that the large majority of the sums received is going to be returned to shareholders. There was no mention of this and it is a very salient point

JMUK Where did you get the £50m Litigators fee and the £23m management fee from?

To be honest I am not sure what the point of all this is. THe fact of the matter is that one or more entities are selling. So what? Yes that is holding the price down at the moment. On the plus side the shareholder base is widening and hence the share is becoming more liquid. Given that ATM is doing all the right things and Tin is going in the right direction it is the sellers who are losing and when they cease reducing their relevant holdings the brakes will come off and ATM will fly. There is nothing we can do about the sellers and this can happen in any share, particularly small co's, so until then sit back and relax. If ATM were going backwards it might be different. I don't think it is.

We are now half way through Q3 and thus far the average Tin Price has been in the region of £32k. That is pretty good and if maintained for the rest of the quarter or bettered will produce some pretty good financial results, quite apart from anything else. Just my opinion DYOR

I think you also need to remember that share trading is 2 way. There have to be buyers. The share has been totally excessively marked down on pathetically small volumes. It is NOT a large seller trying to get out NOR medium sellers trying to get out NOR a large number of small sellers. The reason it is marked down so much is because there are NO buyers and the reason for that is a combination of the Unknowns and the fact that GRX is virtually unknown as a share to invest in. Just my opinion.

Close trader. You are correct, excluding the claim the company is perhaps worth £20m and therefore the balance of the capital value is hope value, which was always justified. The conundrum is what is the difference between hope vale and actual payout. Currently on this basis the market says circa £110m, which is far too low. There will always have to be a discount to reflect that as yet there are several unknowns, and the discount, more or less, will remain until these are clarified.

Thanks HBomb, FWIW from my research on the internet, I don't think Corporation Tax is payable as it amounts to compensation as opposed to profit or income. However distribution to shareholders would be taxable as a receipt, probably an income receipt. DYOR. I am not giving any tax advice and I am sure it is something that GRX will be looking into in due course.

What we do know is that a substantial sum plus interest will be due to GRX from which there will be deductions BUT it will still leave a substantial upside.

As an aside I can't understand why there has been virtually no activity in the shares, save that as yet PI's don't really know what to do.

Thanks HBomb. The maximum by that calculation I think is £60m as GRX also need to repay the monies advanced. Given that the monies were not outstanding for the 5 year period, but maybe an average of three years, their reward is perhaps in the order of £30m + repayment of the sums advanced.

FWIW, I don't see Poland has much ground for appeal particularly given that the claim was over £700m, and the fact that interest is payable the longer it delays I think there is not much point in them delaying, all of which theoretically should mean the funds are outstanding less time and therefore the fees should be at the lower end, but in aggregate (i.e. inclusive of loan repayment) I think, will be in excess of £30m. DYOR

Personally I am in a quandary as to what to do here, as there are various unknowns to us as PI's anyway. 1.What percentage will the lawyers take? 2. Will Poland appeal? 3.What is the worth of the business less the value of the claim? 4. Will Poland procrastinate payment, in which case they pay interest. 5. Will there be a commercial deal that amounts to less than £252m, on the basis of a short payment period? Any thoughts from readers of this BB.

Whilst we can discuss figures, all day, it will be theoretical. The only comment I would make is that at 1.70 it is less than 14x Ebitda, which is not high for growth tech company. I accept that revenues have been a bit in the doldrums latterly BUT it is still a leader in its field and has a massive amount of potential.

It is worth pointing out that the closing price on Friday is less than 10% higher than on the 27th February, six months ago, without a bid. Has the business actually being going backwards. Nonsense, the debt pile has been very significantly reduced. In my view the bid should be in the range 170-200. The indicated bid is derisory and doesn't recognise the strength of the company.

Doesn't surprise me, a bid was going to come here sooner or later. I'm sitting tight.

In any event the Q3 update should be due next week, but don't hold your breath. I am willing to be proved wrong but I doubt anything of any significance will be said, except the usual meaningless words. When the EIA is issued there will be a specific RNS, likewise if it is rejected. I am really not clear as to whether we are any closer to it being issued or not, and there is little save by way of placatory words that Graham can say to alleviate the situation. It is hardly surprising people's patience is being stretched.

One point which seems to have been lost recently on this BB, where there has been a lot written about politics and the king of Morocco etc, is that when this went to appeal it was approved by the appeal committee and sent back down for approval at local level. If politics was at the root of the delay it would not have been approved at the higher level on appeal.

Unfortunately I think the Q3 update is pretty irrelevant for anything meaningful. If the EIA were issued that is an RNS in its own right. Likewise if the EIA is refused it's an RNS in its own right.

Basically they are running out of things to do. I have emailed them several times and not had the courtesy of any response. Twiddling thumbs whilst Rome burns.

The SP is hardly "Tanking" or in "Freefall". The company do comment on the arbitration in each quarterly report. Neither I nor they know when the decision will be released. Neither do they know the decision. unless you are trying to sap shareholders willingness to hold the shares there is no point to your message.

This is a binary risk, and if you are a shareholder you take your choice. It is inevitable that some shareholders have to sell for one reason or another in due course, hence the gradual fall.

I contacted the company last week and suggested there should be a RNS update or an X statement, but no response.