Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The timing of this is interesting. She was on the teleconference call only last week for the third quarter update. She gave an update on the financial side. If CC has discovered something, it’s surfaced after that. She will have been heavily involved in aspects of the Orion loans, and with FM being out of the way she was probably the only one left with detailed knowledge of that.
This is not good, he has somebody move up to hold the fort temporarily whilst someone else can be recruited, but these things can, and will, take time.
I have operated stop losses at various points from 17p down (when the directors started selling - red flag) and now have 20%ish of what I had three years ago , having sold some in the 20s/30s before that. You need to have a risk plan on AIM. The only people who will get rich off this if the v price remains suppressed are SGPR,Orion and the Bushveld Management.
The company has not got 5 years let alone 10. It needs the vanadium price to go up to get profitable to be able to service the huge debts, and the continue being profitable to pay the increased costs it is encountering (wages,diesel,etc). I sense the vultures are now circling, some pieces have already been stripped away.
How long is Craig Coultman going to be around? he has not updated his linkedin profile to show Bushveld but his two other roles are there. FM has a lot to answer for , so do the non-Exec directors, what is the point of them? They are supposed to act for the stakeholders and monitor executive directors.
HarChris - But your projection figures were flawed and it was pointed out.Earlier this year you were using a figure of around $42 kg based on what was happening in Jan/Feb. Easy to show good profits if you use high figures based a short time scale .The company had forecast an overall price of $35kg, the brokers used similar. For any projections the company estimates should have been used , and a contingency of $5 to $7 on top of the operating costs to allow for other/ admin costs to give a net profit. There is a separate discussion about why these are high which is one of the things CC is trying to address.
The fact that the company used $35kg is interesting as there is no way it could have paid off the Orion debt based on that figure which tells me the expectation was the CLN target price would be met and the debt paid via new shares. Now we have a worse situation where Orions revised deal will need renegotiation, they will want their money in some way, whether by a revision down, 3p has been suggested , but Orion will need an achievable target or other means will need investigating
I guess that would come under social media being a website. I did look at it, I know it had its own forum set up but you had to submit proof of ownership of shares to join, not sure how that was achieved but alarm bells rang. I know a few posters off here submitted their own articles.
I recall somebody asking a question on here about vanadium prices in 2019 when they had started to come down from $100+. AC posted a graph showing vanadium prices which illustrated a sharp upward trend but the graph omitted the last four months or so when the price had started to tank. Now you can say that it was an attempt to deceive, but it should have been fairly easy for anyone to find that information for themselves rather than ask the question on here.
Those things did not go unnoticed
He wasn’t. He only appeared in 2018. Robbajob had been ramping this for years before that. He disappeared around 2016 although suspect he has been around since then under various names.
Richken was never an ‘original cheerleader’ here he appeared at some point in 2018, the share had already taken off at that point.
I pulled him up on numerous claims over the 18 months or so he was posting here. He had a lot of support on here with lots defending him. Someone has managed to preserve for posterity one of his typical postings from January 2019 on Twitter. At that point in time the sp had dropped from 50p to around 40p, a decline that has continued to this day.
https://x.com/marcdicks/status/1082647404682321922?s=61&t=qyfTICwv5-mVYVZJNmEFTw
I’m afraid if people have listened to individuals on this bb and not researched properly by all other means then its their fault. Harsh but true. Im not certain that people have done that? There are numerous ways to research a share, company bulletins, brokers notes, wider press, social media (inc. bb’s), etc. There will always be positives and negatives. I have always thought of DYOR as also researching the source , e.g. on. a BB like this, look at who is saying what and why. I have dozens if not hundreds come and go here over the years. A lot spouting nonsense, AIM is a gamble and there are a lot of failed gamblers.
DYOR, your own, not somebody elses. By all means consider it if it seems valid. But don’t solely rely on someone else’s judgement. Its not difficult. I’ve said before that the management and directors selling down at 17p two and a half years ago should have been a major red flag here
Unless I’m missing something he cannot do anything. He may well have a line to the board/CEO , I recall Nick Derby did and he had a more substantial investment based on % of the company. I guess some sort of requisition would need more shareholders on board which this was probably attempting. Again not sure what this would achieve
This does not make sense to me. Not seen what was posted on Telegram but it was Kassem who purchased the 60 odd million shares , not Portillion which is the financial company he is CEO of. So how can Portillion be party to any request to the company if they have no interest. It may be that Portillion have purchased shares below the reportable threshold , although not see this mentioned anywhere. He is sitting on a huge paper loss in a short space of time so I can understand the concern, but not sure how they can work closely with the board??
One thing that crossed my mind when the tr1 was announced was around that it could be an attempt to gain Portillion some business through some more favourable financial arrangement than Orion. Who knows??
Thats how it works. No one who buys shares is directly invested in the company. Shares are continuously issued to raise capital diluting the existing value. In theory what should happen is the money raised from the sale of shares would go back into the company and make it more profitable to encourage other people to purchase more shares.
Unfortunately this does not always work out , the finance companies who lend the capital and are paid via share issues will have assurances that their capital plus interest is paid out, even if it means renegotiating which is the position that has occurred here. The lending companies will make money, the company itself will utilise the capital and the PIs will suffer.
The last ARC report which came out around the same time in August as the previous SPA report and gave a forward sp of 8.5p against SPAs 12.8p. Lots of caveats and ifs and acknowledgement of the impacts of CLNs which had been conveniently ignored in the past. I've no doubt the ARC forecast will be reviewed in due course taking into account the SPR and equity deal. I would also expect a reevaluation at a future date based on any changes to the Orion terms.
What happened seven years ago (around November 2016)and what happens now are completely different things. The company, market sentiment, global outlooks and many other factors have been completely turned upside down. Remember past performance is not indicative of future results.
This does still need the price of vanadium to go up and stay up over a sustained period. Ideally a move to around $45/$50 and stay in that range. We do not want to be in a position where the price stays where it is because in about 12 months time, we are back in the same position. It needs to happen in the geographical areas that we supply to. It’s also needs to start happening as soon as possible
I don’t think the company had any choice in this deal, it’s not so much a good or bad deal but one for survival. So although it appears to be a heavy price to pay, better to do this deal now and carry on, rather than succumb to the financial reality next year with the possibility of a harder asset grab.
Very disappointing it has come to this, how much has the company spent on these financial arrangements over the last few years? The short to medium term would seem assured for now, but ultimately we still need that V price to go up, and stay up, for a sustained period.