Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I made the point that I thought BBN was looking for a trade off last weeks purchase. Last year he bought back in and sold about 24 hours later. He is unusual in that he does give a detailed outline of why he is taking a position and also informs when he sells. I know believing everything that is written on social media is a dangerous thing (!), but the number of people who come on this board and state they have just taken a position out , ( or indeed predicts a share price of multiples of where it is now) and then suddenly disappear is quite noticeable.
I haven’t listened to the phone in this time, but Fortune did say in November that he was going to address the share price. I’m surprised this wasn’t picked up at the time, as fortune himself cannot actually do anything about the share price and it’s driven by market forces of AIM. I guess he could buy some shares which would give it a bit of confidence, that’s unlikely to happen though.
Well he has now sold half his new holding from last week at a loss. I don’t think his expectations were sky high , but he rightly points out that Vanchem is now an unknown burden, although this has been the case for a while. He regrets not waiting until this update was published but that indicates to me he was looking for a trade on last week’s position.
Also note that has been an major expose published about Eskom today in the SA press accusing the ANC of corruption ( nothing new there) and publishing various documents, search for Eskom files on Twitter. Just as they go into stage 6.
Wasn't the 5000/5400 target only from the end of 2022 i.e. after Kiln 3 had been fully ramped up. We will not know whether this is successful until the Q1/Q2 figures are published. Just as important we need to see what effects the increased load shedding has been having on production and costs, we will get an idea in about 3 weeks when the Q4 figures should be out.
The V price for the year will meet company expectations, which is just over $40kg. Next year, the company have a target of $35kg. These figures broadly tie with the broker forecasts. We need to factor the costs in to get the net profit and these will be available in the financials in due course.
Kiln 3 should be in full operation at the end of the month and the Q1/Q2 2023 figures will hopefully show the increase in Vanchem figures.
Load shedding is affecting the company and it is affecting almost everybody in South Africa. The situation has deteriorated in the last few weeks and months. FM has already gone on record about the implications to the company, but there is nothing he can do about it. It’s just a question of living with it at present. Unfortunately there is no solution to this at present.
The company do need to address the situation with the Orion loan, this will certainly need to be renegotiated but don’t expect any announcement until nearer the time (late 2023). There is also the matter of the BE spinoff, I believe this has been delayed due to Mustang investment , now due in Q1 2023. I may be wrong here but believe there is a dependency on the spin-off with Mustang.
It is pointless looking at the LSE site and relying on its data which determines whether a transaction was a buy or sell, i.e. above or below the mid-point. Your broker will be able to give you a buy and sell price and you can usually work it out from there.
In the wider scheme of things it is not too important how LSE colourises trades as it is-never anything like accurate. I’m surprised how often this comes up on these boards.
I said when this was announced that I thought it was connected to the spin-off, likewise I expect a RNS beforehand to support it. I said it was a mistake to announce it months in advance as it just leaves the issue open to speculation. The other large elephant in the room , the Orion CLNs, also needs to be addressed. They are not going to be in a position to put forward a solution yet, but they certainly need to put something out regarding the general direction of travel and how they see the problem resolving. This has been hanging over the company for some time and doubts will continue if ignored. Could be quite a watershed moment.
The Wayback Machine may help
https://archive.org/web/
My understanding is that the prospectus has yet to be issued. This is the responsibility of Mustang. Exactly how long the process has got once this has been issued is unclear. It’s also unclear how BMN are going to interact with this which I guess this investor call will address. Or maybe not?
I am hoping that FM will give more than just an update regarding BE and it will be the actual announcement for the spinoff. It’s been around five months since this was originally mentioned, and it’s been lingering about for far too long. I believe this and other things has muted the interest here , the volumes have been pathetic for a while. It has created a degree of uncertainty on where the land lies between the companies (BMN/new BE). The Orion loan is another cloud hanging over this but don’t expect any real updates in this call, it has another year to go.
We were told that the BE spin-out would be this calendar year. I am making an assumption, possibly a wrong one, that the announcement regarding the spinoff is prior to this investors event. Otherwise I’m not certain I see the point? Company need to show a clear roadmap of how the future looks for both the existing company and its relationship with the new BE company. This has been hanging about for too long now.
The average Vanadium price forecast issued by the company in June was $41 for this year and $35 for 2023. At that point in time it was averaging $44.89. Not sure if the company have issued any updates to this since, I cannot find anything.
I think the problem is more around people making wild expectations and unachievable predictions, either where the bottom is or where it may go to in the future. We never hear mention of the £1 figure now, about three years ago people were talking in terms of £5 which in itself was absurd. Where is redken?
The key pieces of news for me in the short term are relating to the BE spin-off ( by End Dec?) and the K3 ramp up (early next year). The other factors, price of vanadium, loadshedding, inflation, Ukraine, etc., are obviously outside the company’s control and could effect things either way.
Some shares and companies are in a far worse position than this.
People were saying it was oversold in the 20s, even higher. No one has ever called the bottom correctly. Next scheduled news is the q3 update and we can only hope it will start to show reducing costs and not hold any surprises which will have an adverse effect.
Not sure what he would’ve made of the current predicament. I know he thought Glencore were interested at one point in buying this. I can’t believe it’s three years, so that must mean the Corbine Cup was going in 2019. Initially was the 30p version and then upgraded to £1. Oh how times have changed.
The costs need to be lower than $30kg in order to repay the outstanding balance to Orion in late 2023, at least most of it. Ideally we need to be making $15kg net , which gives an achieved price of $45kg. The company are stating they expect an average of $35kg next year, analysts I think have a slightly higher figure.
Inflationary pressures will dictate some cost components, e.g. energy, labour, the ramp up of k3 iis very important, should have happened well before now