Member Info for TysonX

This news (link below), if confirmed and detailed by 26 November, will be very very bullish for the sector here, and especially/even more so for W7L:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/22/rachel-reeves-budget-low-value-imports-tax-loophole-shein-temu?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Additionally worth noting that the Trump–Xi trade truce now being finalised includes early steps to reduce US tariffs on Chinese-origin goods — and that’s a direct plus for W7L’s US business (CVS rollout etc.), where margins were being squeezed by the previous tariff levels.

It’s also an indirect win globally: lower manufacturing and shipping costs feed into stronger margins across the UK/EU too, without the disruption facing direct-from-China sellers like Shein or Temu.

Add in a slightly softer USD and this becomes a double benefit — cheaper inputs and better reported margins in GBP terms.

Small detail, big impact — another quiet tailwind that strengthens the W7L story heading into H2 and 2026.

Worth noting the macro backdrop: the Trump–Xi trade truce being finalised this week includes early-stage tariff easing on Chinese exports and manufacturing inputs.

For brands like Warpaint London (W7L), which source in China but distribute through compliant UK/EU retailers, this is a quiet win — lower import costs without the disruption facing direct-from-China sellers.

Add the UK’s upcoming Budget likely closing the low-value import loophole (hurting Shein/Temu etc.), and the macro tailwind only strengthens further.

Debt-free, cash-rich, 4p ex-div next week (paid the same month), and with a firm base now in place — the risk/reward looks outstanding.

Recent price/volume action continues to point to smart-money accumulation, not retail noise.

Noticed an emerging macro theme worth flagging for W7L holders:

After the US removed its small-parcel duty/VAT exemption in August 2025, the EU — and likely the UK soon after — is moving in the same direction.

This reform would end the loophole that currently lets platforms like Shein and Temu flood Western markets with untaxed low-value imports.

That’s potentially huge for compliant UK-listed value brands such as Warpaint London (W7L).

Unlike those direct-from-China sellers, W7L already imports in bulk, pays all duties, and distributes locally through trusted retailers such as Boots, Tesco, Superdrug……etc.

In other words, W7L’s model is already built on affordable, compliant, locally-distributed products.

When Chinese imports lose their price edge, it’s the home-grown value brands that benefit first — and the market usually anticipates early once the policy path becomes clearer.

This looks like a structural tailwind forming, not a passing theme.

For patient investors, these policy shifts could quietly reshape the competitive landscape in W7L’s favour over the next ~12–18 months (if not sooner!).

A huge turnaround day for Warpaint London. From a 195p low to a 225p UT close (+15% intraday) on ~820k volume — around 60% above average — with the UT itself a chunky 244k buy. The share closed right at the day’s high with a tight 5p spread (~2.3%), confirming buyers firmly back in control.

✅ Reversal confirmation:

After weeks of steady decline, W7L finally printed a clear reversal candle — closing at the day’s high (225p) and well above the previous close (200p) on heavy volume. That’s textbook accumulation, not distribution.

✅ Market behaviour:

Rebounding from its 52-week low (195p) on strong volume and closing on session highs usually signals that smart money — funds, long-term holders, or insiders — has stepped in.

✅ Valuation backdrop:

Even before today’s rally, W7L was already trading at deep-value levels (~6× EV/EBITDA, ~10× P/E, 6%+ yield). Downside risk looks fully priced in, while the setup now favours patient holders.

✅ Momentum & catalysts:

With the 6 Nov ex-div date approaching and sentiment turning, this looks like the first up-leg of a recovery phase, not a dead-cat bounce. Add in H2 rollouts and Berenberg’s support, and the path to 230–250p+ looks open.

After weeks of overselling, today feels like the decisive swing-low confirmation — a sign that confidence and smart accumulation are returning ahead of dividends and Q4 updates.

No change to fundamentals, no change to the story.

There’s been no new news, no downgrade, and no change to guidance since the CEO interview. Margins are recovering, retail rollouts are accelerating, and the balance sheet remains rock solid — zero debt and £17m+ cash.

Markets often overshoot on sentiment, but they tend to correct just as quickly once the numbers catch up. With ~40% insider ownership and growing retailer traction, this still looks like short-term noise rather than any shift in the long-term outlook.

No new news. No downgrade. No RNS. Major retailers haven’t even compiled full Q3 figures yet, and Q4 hasn’t even started. Today’s drop looks purely technical — sentiment, stop-losses and maybe the tail end of that overhang, not a reflection of the fundamentals.

At ~210p, the share price is down almost 65% from the 52-week high of 590p and only a whisker above the 52-week low. It now trades on roughly 8.5× forward earnings and about 1.2× EV/Sales — valuations you almost never see for a debt-free, cash-rich, dividend-paying growth brand with global distribution.

The CEO was crystal clear in his interview: H1 weakness came from two one-offs (a client going bust and another temporarily overstocked), and H2 is when the major rollouts land — Tesco, Boots, Superdrug, CVS, Etos, Tigotà and many more (including internationally). That story hasn’t changed just because some weak hands are exiting in thin conditions.

This is classic AIM behaviour — overshoot on sentiment, then re-rate hard when the numbers reflect the real picture. The market is doing its job by offering deep-value entry points. The risk/reward is improving by the day — and once selling pressure clears, even a modest positive trading update could trigger an extremely sharp reversal.

Senator, your numbers don’t line up with reality.

• Consensus FY25 PAT is £21–23m, not £17m. On today’s ~£180m market cap that’s ~9x PE ex-cash — trough levels, not stretched.

• A 15% CoE is punitive. Debt-free, cash-rich consumer brands in AIM aren’t priced on PE hurdle rates. Sector-typical CoE is 9–10%, which makes W7 clearly value-creating (ROCE >30%).

• Normal (~25%) is growing rapidly and profitable for W7. Margins have held at ~37–40% even with that growth. The base is broadening with Tesco, Boots, Superdrug, CVS, Etos, Tigotà etc. in H2.

• “Dead in the US” isn’t accurate — W7 has ongoing sales through CVS, TJX and others. Not huge yet, but certainly alive.

• £17m cash (net ~£14m post-interim dividend) is strong for a £100m turnover, zero-debt company.

The recent CEO interview explained the H1 hit (client bust/overstock) as one-offs and confirmed double-digit growth with their biggest customer. H2 rollouts are already underway — hardly the sign of a business “destroying equity value.”

At 225p, W7 is trading on trough multiples with cash, dividends, and clear growth drivers. And again, that’s why the Schroders have now lifted past 11.1% and brokers like Berenberg (510p PT) and Shore (House Stock) still see upside.

Senator — fair points on concentration risk, but your valuation logic doesn’t stack up against the actual numbers.

1️⃣ Cost of equity at 15% is too high for a debt-free, cash-rich consumer brand. The market doesn’t demand private equity–style hurdle rates from AIM cosmetics — especially one paying a 5%+ dividend and with ~40% insider ownership.

2️⃣ Earnings power: H1 PAT £5.4m, and even on your “very generous” doubling assumption, £16.2m is realistic. At the current ~£180m market cap, that’s an ~11 PE, not expensive. On EV basis (net cash position), it’s even cheaper.

3️⃣ Valuation multiples: Today’s 1.3× EV/Sales and ~11× PE are trough levels. Back in 2017, W7L traded on ~5× sales when revenues and profits were far lower. Even Berenberg’s 510p PT and Shore’s “House Stock” rating acknowledge the current disconnect.

4️⃣ Customer base: Normal is ~25% but growing fast, and the top 5 ~40–45% is already flagged. The base is broadening — Tesco, Boots, Superdrug, CVS, Etos, Tigotà etc. are all significant H2 rollouts on top.

At 225p, W7L is not “destroying equity value” — it’s trading at trough multiples with growth drivers, cash, dividends, and institutional backing (Schroders now 11.1%). Upside potential here clearly far outweighs any downside risk.

OK, let’s agree — Normal is the major customer (~25% of sales) and is expanding rapidly across Europe. But that’s a growth driver for W7L, not a hidden risk.

Gross margins have held steady at ~37–40% even with Normal’s growth, which proves the wholesale economics stack up.

Customer concentration is well known (top 5 ~40–45%), and the base is broadening fast with Tesco, Boots, Superdrug, CVS, Etos, Tigotà and more all rolling out in H2.

So yes, Normal matters — but it’s expanding at pace, and W7L is riding that wave while diversifying into other major retailers.

Good posts 👌 — spot on that W7L is trading on a lower valuation than back in 2017/18 despite being twice the size, far more profitable, and sitting on a much bigger cash pile. Serious disconnect there.

On director buys: worth remembering insiders already own ~40% of the company — that’s serious skin in the game. A director top-up would be a nice cherry on top, but they’re already massively aligned.

Institutions are signalling confidence too — Schroders just nudged their stake past 11.1% during the dip. That’s smart money averaging in, not heading for the exits.

And let’s not forget: W7L is debt-free, cash-rich, dividend-paying, with its largest customer reporting double-digit H1 sales growth. Add in a stronger GBP (margin tailwind) and the rollouts into Tesco, Boots, Superdrug, CVS, Etos, Tigotà and more, and the fundamentals are only strengthening.

Once any overhang clears, the valuation gap should close very fast. Debt-free, cash-rich, dividend-paying, and expanding globally — not many AIM names can say that.

Schroders have just nudged their stake up past 11.1% (RNS today). It might look like a small % move, but context matters:

• Crucially, they were buying into weakness post-results, not selling down.

• Institutions don’t have to chase size all at once — they scale in quietly.

Bottom line: while retail are fretting at 215p, smart money is accumulating on the dip. Once the seller clears, moves like this will help underpin the floor and set up the next leg north.

W7 now in Tesco — branded stand, £2.50–£4.60 impulse price points, right in the main aisles. Confirms the rollout is real and visible. Exactly what H2 is about: wider UK reach, value cosmetics in high-traffic channels. Fundamentals playing out on the ground.

Interesting to see movement on the short side – declared short interest in W7L is now about 1.77%, with JPMorgan trimming back 0.33% on 10 Sept. Arrowstreet still holds 0.50% but isn’t adding.

That’s a shift worth flagging: when large institutions start cutting shorts instead of piling in, it usually means the easy downside may be done.

Technically, as pointed out by others, the Bollinger bands have started widening after a spell of tight trading around 220–230p. Combine that with shorts backing off and the set-up looks primed for a sharper move.

H2 rollouts are still in their early innings. Institutions may not want to be caught heavily short into a newsflow cycle that could flip sentiment.

Signs are building that the balance of risk is shifting back to the bulls.

https://shortdata.co.uk/company.php?isin=GB00BYMF3676

Gross vs operating margin isn’t distortion — gross margin is the clearest sign of brand strength, and W7L just delivered a record 45%. Operating profit was pulled down by FX and one-offs, which is exactly why brokers and the company focus on adjusted EBITDA (£10.8m) and adj. EPS (8.5p) to show ongoing profitability.

On BA: yes, it contributed to online/UK, but group revenue is still guided £107–112m vs £102m last year, so it’s growth either way. The test is H2, and that’s where the upside sits — Tesco, Superdrug & Boots Xmas already locked in, plus GBP/USD now moving in their favour to help margins.

Meanwhile, balance sheet is robust (£17m cash, no debt, dividend up 14%), founders still own ~40%, and brokers remain bullish (Berenberg Buy 510p PT; Shore Capital House Stock both post update).

45% gross margin shows pricing power, £17m cash, no debt, divi up 14%. UK LfL hit by Bodycare/timing but H2 rollouts locked in (Tesco, Superdrug, Boots, Xmas…. ..). Plus GBP/USD has markedly moved in their favour, which should help margins. Brokers still Buy (510p PT; House Stock), looking forward to H2 and beyond.

Yes, ex-BA growth slowed, but UK was +16%, Online +48%, Rest of World +144%. Group still guides £107–112m revenue vs £102m last year — that’s growth. Margins didn’t collapse, they hit a record 45%. W7L has always traded in mass retail yet still sits with £17m cash, no debt, and a rising dividend. Brokers (Berenberg Buy 510p; Shore Capital House Stock) still back the outlook as achievable.

@thewakokid, Good point on Justin Waite — his case (cash generation, debt-free, growing margins, brand rollouts) still holds. The H1 RNS showed +8% revenue, record 45% margin, £17m cash, and dividend up 14%. Guidance was trimmed but brokers agree fundamentals are intact: Berenberg still Buy with 510p PT and Shore Capital call it House Stock. That lines up well with Waite’s longer-term view — and as ever, markets overshoot in both directions, which is what creates opportunities. This looks to be a great one.

Now simply just way too crazy Oversold here, hoping much better days/weeks/months ahead.

Not “fictional” at all – under IFRS 3, if you buy assets for less than fair value, you must record a bargain purchase gain. W7L paid £13.9m for £17.8m net assets, and that included £6.2m cash on day one. That’s value, not finger-in-the-air accounting.

On cash flow, H1 delivered +£4.8m operating cash flow (vs a £2.0m outflow last year). The jump in cash from £5.5m to £17.0m wasn’t just from the share raise, it’s a mix of BA cash acquired, positive OCF and a debt-free balance sheet.

Yes, PBT fell, but that was largely down to a £4.6m FX hit, of which £2.7m was unrealised and had already reversed after June. That’s why adjusted numbers matter – adj. EBITDA £10.8m and adj. EPS 8.5p still show a profitable, cash-generative group.

BA wasn’t “buying losses” – it’s already contributing, with £0.5m EBITDA in 4.5 months while overheads were cut and 3 non-core brands exited. Management have been clear it will be earnings-enhancing in FY25.

Meanwhile, the group just reported record gross margins (45%), £17m cash, no debt, and lifted the dividend 14%. H2 has locked-in rollouts with Superdrug, Tesco, Boots (Christmas), CVS in the US, plus Etos/Tigotà in Europe, alongside price increases still to flow.

The guidance trim is a reset to reflect macro caution, not a thesis break. The fundamentals, margins and pipeline are all moving in the right direction.