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1p for me please. Am not completely convinced all will be agreed by end of Q3 so think we will hold at near current levels.
I look forward to reading the RNS that says that everything is agreed however. Any other stumbling blocks that we should be aware of that could halt progress, other than the seemingly lack of movement from the Tanzanian government side?
GLA
topsharepicks - whilst an offer of 40p would see funds almost double, I'm holding out for something a little higher. Something has to give with the SP at some point.
I understand that past misdemeanors have held us back but I believe we've turned that corner now. Looking forward to a "boring" H1 report; no talk of takeovers/rights issues, just working down that debt.
Today sure beats the majority of others that we've had to endure the past 12 months
Members
Whilst I agree with a number of things you wrote, how did you come to 15 for the SP? If we're trying to compare apples with appples (i.e. ENQ and PMO) then based on PMO's current SP of 77 then a SP of 15 would indicate that the company is one fifth of their worth.
But ENQ's debt isn't 5 times greater, our production isn't 5 times less and we're not paying down our debt 5 times as slowly. So why 15?
I'm not saying that both companies are on par with each other but I would like to know more into your thinking into the price of "15 and no more".
Hi Ndalla
I cannot comment on the production curves - I'm sure some of the more members on this BB will know. However, I feel that ENQ is still being tarred by past performance and is still surrounded by a large debt and supposed failure in bringing this down.
It has been a long few years here but I do feel that provided POO can remain at similar levels to current (hopefully more) then the debt will be paid down and the market will have no further reason to ignore and undervalue.
Until then I will wait.
Hi all
I was invested in Ithaca before the take-over and Delek managed to get them at a good price (was around 12% above current market price) but at a time where they were only moving upwards and so felt massively short-changed.
I can understand why there is an interest in ENQ, particularly as we seem to have steadied the ship. How serious are these talks? Sorry I have yet to read all the posts from today.
Either way, I would like to SP to rise significantly before Delek step in, as they would happily pay a 30% premium, which on the surface sounds good, but knowing full well that it would rise more than that in the future.
GLA
Romaron - I agree. It wasn't long ago that there was talk that we were unable to pay debts and words like insolvency and liquidation were being thrown about.
I for one do not see a dividend being paid until the RCF is paid off. However there should be (hopefully) significant capital gains as a result of this so am happy for them to go with:
1. Pay off RCF
2. Small dividend to reward loyalty
3. Further ventures in NS region
Another Magnus deal (or two) would be music to my ears!
Pelle - using your models, what does FCF look like at the end of the year if we have all further production for the end of the year at a realised price of $67 (or something similar to that).
Trying to decipher what the scenario would look like if we had to rely on hedges (a sort of worst case type scenario) and assuming guidance at the bottom end of recommendation.
Thanks
Overall I'm not happy blown away by today's update but do see it as a small step in the right direction. Did anyone get anything out of AB today regarding expected net debt at year-end (more specific than 2x)
I believe the builds continue to be down to the US calling upon their reserves to give an inaccurate reflection of the current state. I’m likely to be wrong that my opinion. At the same time I believe their conflicts with Iran are motivated by the need to tap into their oil reserves, as they do not have long time plays in place once shale gets found out for not being as effective as heavy crude.. again all IMO.
Let’s hope for a market shaking day. Personally I don’t honk the SP will react too much tomorrow, but the results will begin the turnaround for what could be a very profitable remainder Of the year for shareholders.
Good luck all!
Pelle, E121
I agree with you both. This is one of the main questions to ask (from shareholder standpoint) at the AGM as a way of making positive steps towards improving the SP and the attractiveness of the company for outside investors.
I would be interested to see his response; does he give a response which indicates that he has thought about it previously or simply laughs it off, in which case there a little chance on one in the short to medium term
And does anyone have ANY idea of if / when the licence decision could be made?
I understand that's like asking the question how long is a piece of string but do we have the faintest idea?
Kraken - I think we may get some very short-term spikes off the back of recent tanker performance. However I can't see it sticking until we get official confirmation via RNS.
If we get anything along the lines of what Pelle wrote over the weekend (around 70k production if memory serves correct) then we have to see a significant rise.
Krakenoil - I agree. However if we get 3-4 more offloads within the same time period as the last then I see this gaining short term momentum again.
The one good thing is that with POO at current levels we are taking good bites out of the overall debt.
https://apple.news/AkeGkhVbURnatZaTnCcg29Q
Hopefully you can access. Gives an insight into how much of a say we could have in ENQ.