A few Snippets from todays Note15 Apr 2026 13:17
As Exhibit 13 below shows the Redmoor project is extremely robust. Even at low prices (i.e. back to where we were 9 months ago at $400/mtu) the project as modelled generates an NPV10 of $613m (5p of share value risked at 30%). If demand can’t be satisfied by new supply and the price remains high then at $2,000/mtu the project generates an NPV10 of $4,673m (43p of share value risked at 30%). The low case of $400/mtu produces an NPV10 nearly 5 times larger than that produced the 2020 Scoping Study. We expect the project to improve in size and scope throughout the period of its PFS and DFS. Redmoor still has secrets to give up in our view.
Upsides to smelter payabilities While we continue to use the upper end of recent tungsten payabilities at 80% (as a proxy for smelter payments) there is an opportunity for tungsten miners to gain more of the price in our view. At an APT price of $400/t and a payability of 75% gives us $100/t to the smelters which we understand is the conversion cost plus a profit. At a price of $2,800/t this gives the smelters $700/t of the APT price an uplift of $600/t from where they were before. We think in the shortterm we will see a renegotiation of the tungsten refining contracts to reflect more value to the miners. Even a payment of 90% will give a share to the miners and the smelters.
Valuation on Resource multiples (EV/t) As a tungsten company Strategic Minerals is undervalued against its peers in our view with an EV/t of only $1,745/t (Exhibit xx). Companies with a project at a similar stage as Redmoor are valued on a much higher EV/t WO3 (e.g. Allied Critical Metals) with some at a less advanced stage and./ or smaller deposits (e.g. Guardian Metals) valued much higher on this metric. We should also point out that Tungsten West is also similarly disadvantaged, especially given its funding and its short time to production. We would expect that following the PFS, Strategic Minerals would rerate significantly. There is only a small sample size, but an advanced stage project should (Zeus est.) demand an EV/t valuation of at least 3,000 – 4,000x, so effectively double to triple where we are now. Therefore, we think, in a normalised market where full value is given to good projects at PFS, then the Redmoor resource alone should be valued with a market cap in excess of $300m (£230m, 8p/sh). We would argue given its grade at a higher level than this again.
The Zeus view is that the Redmoor project is a company maker for Strategic Minerals. It is hitting all the points we expect in a high priority project – it is high-grade; it is open along strike and at depth; it lies in an area known for historical mining and which needs further inward investment; it has tacit local and government support, and; it is progressing in a very robust tungsten price environment – and an environment in which we see demand only set to increase against a poor supply outlook. We update our fair value to 14.9p/per share which we see as a ne
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