A little recap to settle everyone down again28 Apr 2026 18:56
14.9p Fair value with the possibility of 43p.
Zeus View: We value Strategic Minerals on a SOTP basis with a DCF for Redmoor forming the bulk of our valuation. We take a conservative approach to tungsten and use a constant $850/mtu APT price recognising that cycles are cyclical for a reason, but also look at a production rate at 1.0Mt/year (over Strategic’s 600kt/year as a 29 year mine life does not make an efficient use of resources in our view). Our DCF using a 10% discount rate produces an NPV of $1,755m and an IRR of 138% to which we only include 30% in our fair value – 14.4p/per share.
We believe Redmoor to be a high-priority project and one that could easily be a company maker for Strategic Minerals. We see fair value overall, after a contribution from Cobre magnetite mine, the sale of Leigh creek with an allowance for corporate costs and cash, at 14.9p per share. As Exhibit 13 below shows the Redmoor project is extremely robust. Even at low prices (i.e. back to where we were 9 months ago at $400/mtu) the project as modelled generates an NPV10 of $613m (5p of share value risked at 30%). If demand can’t be satisfied by new supply and the price remains high then at $2,000/mtu the project generates an NPV10 of $4,673m (43p of share value risked at 30%). The low case of $400/mtu produces an NPV10 nearly 5 times larger than that produced the 2020 Scoping Study. We expect the project to improve in size and scope throughout the period of its PFS and DFS. Redmoor still has secrets to give up in our view.