Member Info for Tuggy

Reading all four articles in the above papers , I have to say for supposedly well informed journalists they seem incapable of grasping the fact the Americans are involved in the Falklands big time , not one reference to that fact makes me realise they have no actual material knowledge of their subject matter and still go on about the grave possibility of an Argentina invasion. Some of the facts about Fogl and there lack of cash were correct and RKH have taken over a company dieting on its feet ,but in actual fact they have only taken over former Desire territory . Of course it does make the potential production programme a liittle more exciting for an outside investor , but little was mentioned of PMO inability in sanctioning the production program. Here is the rub, Noble are investing hugely in the Falklands way more than any other company , and as such it would be normal to assume they know what they are doing, hence the drilling of Rhea will hopefully prove successful and trigger the launch of a production programme. They control 100 per cent of the licence and once Rhea is appraised the other 52 targets will be waiting to drill. Noble will probably look for another partner , as the have Edison already , a Gas specialist, Noble will ask PMO if they wish to participate or alien themselves with a third party. POO is crucial to all these assumptions but I think as Falkland investor mentions Argos was always the one everyone wanted to buy , but by clever manoeuvring by Argos they now stand to be the first into production which will make the share price extremely attractive both in the fact of zero dilution and the realisation of the 5 per cent royalty coming on stream which in its self should make the share price move tenfold. Macri will prove more commercial and could even suggest FI provide cheap energy for Argentina, now that would be interesting and something the Journalists would have to appreciate at last. One day all their doom and gloom will be taken away in one breath.

Totally agree Isetown, I think Fogl were getting extremely low on cash therefore far better to merge with RKH than go to the market for more share dilution. Shame PMO were not involved as Isetown cleverly notes Noble being in the driving seat as far as future production. The only way any shares will gain is primarily increase in POO and also a find at Rhea which will spur Noble and another party do start production preparations . Another point hardly mentioned apart from the Telegragh is the great news of the change of government in Argentina, one who is looking for sensible dialogue with FIG. The big IIs will suddenly cotton on , as this has hampered many prospective investors in the past. Hopefully spud ding Rhea end of Jan early Feb.

Brilliant news a new business friendly government have been voted in replacing that dreadful sabre rattling cow Kirchener. The perceived risk of constant battles with the Argies have now been removed , clearly a main reason many IIs would not touch the stock. Hopefully both Govts can now sit round the table and maybe provide resouces to Argentina!!!!! Good news when POO is still falling .

Due to the new Tax regulations which involve shares held in foriegn tax havens it is now known that,those who hold the shares outside thenUK have to repatriate the money somehow to avoid crippling tax , this doctrine has to be done by the end of the year, so in effect however ridiculous it is to sell before a Pre drill it is now known holders of Argos were in this position and had no choice but to sell , but will hopefully pile in once the money are repatriated . It does answer the question numerous posters have asked why the fall in share price , it is now answered , and from now on with the drill starting realistically in Feb , the share price should start to tick up , as will other Falkland oilers on the appraisal well on Isobel and the Chatham field which adjoins ArgosnTcyche field in the South east,of the licence.

Subject to POO which this morning is up I think you will find sediment will return as in the past Eegbvi thought Isobel could be a better bet than Sea Lion, however ER has a an awful lot of work to do capping various wells an dealing sure they are safe in and around the future appraisal well at Isobel , then onward to Chatham and finally Argos Rhea. If the POO prevails then all the shares will rebound from there current depths and prove to be an outstanding bargain.

Once the pendulum starts swaying the other way with regard POO all Oil shares including all Falkland companies will find it difficult to gain to any degree , but shortly the worm will turn and everyone will realise this is a huge buying opportunity .

Notice the trades sitting on the fence, they still do not know how to trade this stock. Drilling will not start until end of Feb due to the huge delays on Humpback and numerous tasks capping and plugging before appraisal well at Isobel which will be a number crunchier and Chatham then Rhea. Believe or not the delay will in fact benefit Argos in terms of the current POO. Hold the faith ,this will happen sooner than you think .

I am afraid to say this company is going to be in moth balls for years, it has no future nor has the SFB for the time being, the only hope is with Noble drilling Argos acreage Rhea, where if successful there is some hope of production , PMO have no intention of producing Sealoin as they have very little money and need a partner , who would want to get into bed with them , the only possibility being Noble but only on their terms.Borders time will come but I did say on various boards Humpback was very much the Curates Egg .

All looking good , plus Noble shares up

Again eegbvi you presume wrongly,about Argos. Argos have cut a deal which gives Noble 100 licence to control and pay for every conceivable cost during and after drilling and production , this was not the case with Fogl as they were always short of cash , as seen in the last two weeks on the drill of Humpback. Not wanting to cause offence on this board after the dismal last week for the shareholders , it was always very much a punt drilling in the SFB hence why BOD bought into the NFB. The writing was on the wall when NOBLE declined drilling the second well and bought into Argos. I do not think for one moment that Argos would go into an ORRI deal without caveats regarding the payments being forthcoming. However the threat of dilution will I am afraid always cloud the shares in FOgl but the Isobel field hopefully will be there saviour . But again they are dependant on the sanctioning of production by PMO. Noble if successful at Rhea will go into production probably in partnership with another company , knowing they are 100 per cent control , that is the rub.

I meant to say that the there is no threat of dilution , hence why it is so attractive for long term and for that matter short term investors. Long term will hope for a very generous Royalty payment in three to four years time for a period of twenty or so years and short term the reality of Noble possibly buying back the ORRI and making a one off payment to rid themselves of years of dividends to 220 million shares yearly, which amounts to an awful lot of money .

Noble have announced in their latest statement along side there Israeli gas programme, the commencement of drilling Rhea at the end or beginning of the year and results by the end of the 1st Quarter. There is a full diagram of the the prospective drill with expectations of in excess of 250 mm barrels of oil. With 30 per cent COS which in laymans terms is very high. As EEghvi has commented on the FOLG board , they have probably have found something in Humpback but with the POO they require a strategy of more definite and secure and less risky exploration , hence why they declined drilling a second well in the SFB and was obliged to carry on drilling Humpback for far longer than they wished. The threat of any share dilution will make this share a favourite punt for many PI , not just the short term but also PI who take the risk of buying at a MKT CAP of £16 m, when if the drill is a success and sets off a stream of other finds on the licences area 52 prospects in all , imagine the share price at the end of March 2016. The market will at some stage cotton on to this possible gem .

That is what the MM want, getting any stock by depressing the market, an old ploy before the action starts, especially when there is so little stock in private hands I would say less than 10 per cent

I should think that 50 p is achievable and a pound if the oil price remains at a steady 60 dollars during 2016 but the biggest spike will be when they do the hopeful appraisal well six months later , when Noble will put into action a production programme and also know how many barrels per year etc , then I think they will proceed with the ORRI payment scheme or as I have mentioned before a total buyout. emember they have 100 per cent control over the licence and have a further 52 prospects and Argos hold a third of Johnson and a feeder into Chatham and also potential prospects above PLOOI . The shares will attract all sorts of IIs as it will be all in tense of purposes a cash cow without the threat of any dilution.

The general sentiment of all Falklands oilers are at allow ebb and is reflected by the decline in our share price on such low volumes , the MMs are making hay. A good time to top up but the they have spread the bid and offer price by 18 per cent. Noble announced Rhea drill end of year or beginning 2016 , we are at a low and feel sorry for all FOgk shareholders ,regarding Humpback but at least they have the benefit of having a presence in the NFB something they did not have before . Borders and Southern are the ones on the ropes I am afraid. When the oil price recovers all this will be history .

They now have no money left and are ripe for takeover, quess who!!!!

The answer as I explained in my last post . Of course as a long time investor in Argos , I was never convinced of the SFB, due to the huge territory and the limited knowledge of the area, but it would have been good to have an element of oil discovery but as I have always said the oil is in the North. Argos were here 20 years ago and have more knowledge about the Falklands than any other company, they are led by oilmen and geologists with 40 years experience . Look at the personnel at all the other companies they are not Oilmen . Rockhopper lost their only oilman soon after he hit SeaLion ,unfortunely he left soon after. NFB is going to be huge and Noble are going to be the major player and quess what Argos have them as partners!!!

Although I feel sorry for SFB holders the bad news is good news for Argos , as it now concentrates Noble on Rhea and finding and then producing from a field they have total control. They were evidently not that convinced in the SFB as they abandoned the second well there to go and take control of Argos operations but due to contractual obligations had to perservere with Humpback. This leaves Argos as a true target for financial institutions showing interest in a potential cash cow, all we need is Oil to stay above 50 and Rhea to come in and this share will fly as opposed to a dormant Rockhopper stranded in there partnership with PMO a company with neither money or the gumption to intince a partner to start Pre production work, it will take three years so what price oil then !!! The next four months are going to be the most crucial to the whole of the Falklands story as if Rhea is not a success the whole idea of oil in the Falklands will remain a pipe dream for at least another ten years. Noble as I always sais back in April will be first to Production ahead of any British company which in its self a crying shame but that's life. Isobel and Zebedee and Sealoin are all proven but realistically owned by companies without the clout to go into production without heavy dilution , something Argos does not have to worry about!!!

Folg humpback very much the curates egg, and I think they knew for some time. Now they can concentrate on Rhea, as I recall Noble gave up the second well in the SFB to get into bed with us.

I met over the weekend someone who works for a weathly American who receives a yearly ORRI form an investment he made years ago with an American major oil company and receives a royalty payment of around 15 dollars per share. This is common place in the USA but has been used sparingly in the British Oil industry. Maybe that is why when this deal was struck by the BOD , it was misunderstood by not only PI but also the IIs , however I think the money may drop soon. They are convinced Rhea has oil and will I think proceed with another appraisal well later in the year , to ascertain the finer details of what volumes and pressures the oil is found. Then they can fathom the cost of production and probably discuss with the others companies as how to share the cost or just produce the territory they have 100 percent operational control. And of course proceed to drill many of the other 52 prospects on the licence. We need Oil to recover next year which all experts now think is realistic but as long as the price remains above 50 then the investment makes sense, experts are collectively looking at 65 to 70. But to be honest the world changes so quickly and schedules are missed, but personally this is an opportunity Isetown has shown, a big fat pension , not many investments offer especially with no dilution.