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https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/nodes/82016161

So how about Andrew Tinkler ? So he has been selling last week at between 10p and 12p having bought for around 6p while the shares were suspended.. He and William Stobart have been best friends for 30 years and according to press reports are still on good terms. Andrew Tinkler's wealth has taken a bashing due to issues at ESl and the Stobart Group, but he is a supreme deal maker, multi-millionaire and wealthier than all of us put together on this message board. So if you think he is an idiot who sold at 10-12p when a rise in the share price or a takeover approach would bring the share price to north of 20p in the next few weeks or months - then go ahead and hold ESL for the long term and see how you do. I am sure he would have had a chat with William Stobart about his views prior to selling his shares. He sold as he can't find a way to take control and hey selling for 10p-12p when you bought 3 months before for 6p is a good deal in anyone's book.

What about cash ? Many have said that ESL is now awash with cash - they got £55m from DBAY and a further £20m from other lenders in December. Well ESL have a lot of warehouses many of which were sold and leased back and rent is normally due for the following quarter in the last week of the previous quarter. According to the RNS from ESL last week they received £70m but "As highlighted in the Company's announcement dated 14 November 2019, the conversion of the Company to an AIM listed investing company is being considered by the Board which would entail the Company raising funds, prior to the end of May 2020, to co-invest alongside DBAY in private equity deals across Europe. " - I think that with the business still loss making they will seek to raise funds in May so they have enough cash for the Q3 rental payments.

Wincanton have had a look when shares were changing hands for 6p and walked away. Do you really think they will now come back and pay 600% more ?!

Due to the free float and the volume being traded, there is options to trade this stock as I think it will range between 5p and 15p over the next few weeks and months. I think the majority of the time it will be in the 7p to 12p range, so if this is your target and your timing is right then it is worth consideration. If you think with the debt and trading position the true value is 30p to £1, then you are going to have to prove that Andrew Tinkler is financially illiterate and a poor businessman.

For those that bought in last week at 4.7p and for those like me that sold at 12p, I think shrewd business was done, but would caution against ignoring the reality of the debt and current loss making.

Finally, if I was a customer of ESL I would be looking to reduce my dependency on them by moving some business to the other major logistics players, because that is just sensible risk management and no-one in Procurement will get fired for being prudent with regards to risk management

There appears to be still a large amount of misinformation about DBay and ESL on here, so for those that are interested here are the facts based upon the research I have done together with some opinions based upon personal knowledge of some of they key characters involved.

DBay acquired 19.235.327 shares in ESL on 07/05/19 which was their first shareholding registered in the company and gave them 5.07% of the shares. The share price at that time was about 98p. You can confirm this from the RNS on ESL.

Also on 07/05/19, Greenwhitestar Topco Ltd sold their 14.07% stake in ESL. Greenwhitestar Topc Ltd were registered in Douglas on the Isle of Man, where DBay are based and registered !

https://opencorporates.com/companies/im/010843V

DBay bought a further 19,121,973 shares in ESL on 18/06/19 when the share price was about 67.5p raising their shareholding to 10.11%. You can confirm this via the RNS on ESL.

So on the surface it appears that DBay were building a stake in ESL. However I believe that Greenwhitestar Topco Ltd is associated with DBay and vice versa, so all is not as it appears.

On 02/12/19 DBay via RNS confirmed that it had acquired a further 62,150,00 shares in ESL raising it's share to 29.9% of ESL. It is not clear what price they paid, this was done off-book as the shares were suspended at this time but I believe it was about 6p.

Although the above purchases only add up to 26.5% - the average price based upon this 26.5% would be 35.2p. Also on 02/12/19 DBAY confirmed it would lend £55m to ESL for a 51% stake in Greenwhitestar Acquisitions Limited which is the holding company of ESL with interest to be rolled but accrued at 18% per annum ! The discrepancy between the 29.8 and the 26.5% could be because in the RNS it said that DBAY and other associated parties including William Stobart had also invested.

So on the surface the DBAY average is 35.2p - but why did they go down this route, If Greenwhitestar Topco and DBAY are closely associated, they actually between them reduced their exposure from 14% to 10% before the shares were suspended. DBAY then bought more shares at the bargain basement price in December 2019 to make sure they got their PIK loan proposal through so that they controlled the debt and the company, which they now do. They are therefore now in a position where they can make asset disposals and pay down debt - including their own loan and interest - somebody mentioned dividends being re-instated, no I think debt will be the priority.

To be continued....

Well I thought we would be North of 36p but looking at the futures and Middle East sad to say we could be sub 30p - which is bad but also good as I will be doubling down

Not likely to have much of an effect at this stage but worth keeping an eye on

https://unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2020/february/wynnstay-drivers-deliver-strong-mandate-for-industrial-action/

I've passed your condolences on to my wife Dana, as I said before with a weak immune system she would be one of the first to go. She thought your condolences were a kind thought but also a tadge premature lol - let's wait and see !

Hi Dana - another great post and totally agree with your view. I remember RDSB dropped to about £12.85 in January 2016 and I think the dividend was about 10% and everyone said it would be cut and it wasn't. Needless to say the share price recovered to £25.67 by January 2018. Looking at the position now I would expect 2500p within 2 years, ie a 50% plus gain plus 8.9% on the dividend. I always held RDSB as opposed to RDSA as understood the Dutch withholding tax on RDSA was disadvantageous to UK taxpayers ?

Great post Dana and well done for topping up. I did top up at RRE but the size of the drop here concerned me as it was so irrational ! I agree I think we will be relatively stable next week, all be it with a few bumps but not as crazy as last week. When you think of the economic carnage being caused by CV it makes you wonder whether we should just give in and and accept that 50% of the population will get it and 2% will not survive - as we may end up in that position in any case. I guess the issue is it might mutate and also my wife who has a weakened immune system and would fall into the 2% was not appreciative of my perspective in order to support our retirement planning lol - Anyway regardless of the markets wind the clock forward here 12 months and we know that the fundamentals here will drive this share 100% of where it closed on Friday.

Have an average of 38.1p here and nearly doubled down when it went to 30p but given the carnage talked myself out of it thinking we might go to 25p next week - now it seems we are back up to 35p lol - Not bothered as in here for the long term but investing surely is an interesting prospect in these times

@wdelboy2 - glad you are expecting the dividend to be scrapped, as it was already scrapped on 16/09/19 lol

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ESL/eddie-stobart-company-update-jepgrtk5rkxjdti.html

DYOR lol

As I said Icartz you invested and then asked the question lol - dividend was suspended on 16/09/19 - try and keep up lol

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ESL/eddie-stobart-company-update-jepgrtk5rkxjdti.html

Your asking about the dividend here having invested - and I use the term loosely lol - you could not make it up

Was that organic growth or acquisition growth funded by debt that they could not afford, now funded by more debt at 18% per annum via the PIK ?

Morning Chaps, just checking in to see how preparations are going for the 30p party ? My IG platform is saying ESL is down about 15% today - surely that can't be right ?!

Maybe I should check back in again at 16:30, should be at 30p or at least 20p by then right ? Simples !

So having been out of Metro for a while I bought in on Monday on a mad whim thinking that post results it might go back above £2. Bought in at 188p and results were not that bad imho / but shocked to see the price down st 160p around lunchtime - doubled down at 160p and close my eyes and logged in later and cashed all out at 191p for an £800 profit - wasn’t intending to trade but am trying to stay in cash given market turmoil. Now maybe it goes back to 160p tomorrow and we start all over again ? Really think Metro will be taken out although think it might be for £2.50 to £3 - which seems low but it’s a strange world at present

I’ve been travelling during the day ! Well I will be back tomorrow, either to eat humble pie or see how correct I am / the facts are clear but sentiment can be powerful - I have a spoon and plate ready for humble pie just in case - good night and let’s see what happens !

Well I’ve just done an 18.5 hour day with 5 hours sleep last night and not ready to sleep - trying to be as honest as I can ! If you are holding and or buying I hope sentiment keeps propelling you and the sp forward - I don’t invest on sentiment, maybe I should but that’s just me

Not sure why the drop today, yes market down but TRX is in a unique position and market sentiment not really relevant here. Will be looking to double down tomorrow as there maybe a further drop given the poor finish in USA across the board - @Mark1973 hope you do as well here as you did across on ESL today - thanks for your posts

Maybe your Mummy tells you still when to go to bed and what to post where - but I make my own decisions so won’t be following your instructions, even if that seems hard to comprehend lol

@prionace - another false fact I’m afraid / I was a lth with an average of 76p and sold at 12p - so your statement that I sold for a good profit is a load of *******s - as many statement on here has been today - if you check my posts again you will see I’m yelling the truth ! Even if it goes up I don’t regret selling at 12p, I do regret buying at 76p !