RE: News due shortly11 Nov 2020 11:06
Shore Capital broker note from October thinks our price target of 35p
Given the company’s blue chip institutional register and a management team that has very
much put its money where its mouth is, Savannah’s share price will be a frustration for
more than just us sell-side analysts. We do, however, suspect that a scarcity of broker
forecasts won’t be helping as CEO Andrew Knott and team continue to articulate a great
story. We have therefore decided to break cover and issue fully updated estimates for
FY2020F and FY2021F, following the recent publication of interim results for the six
months to June. The interims (issued at the end of September) were notable in that they
provided the first clean-and-complete set of numbers for Savannah following completion
of the Seven Energy acquisition, taking in a full six months of Nigerian revenues whilst
avoiding last year’s transaction-related costs. Our forecasts have admittedly been
reduced, partly as a result of slower progress towards first oil in Niger, but nevertheless
paint a picture of solid earnings growth and cash flow, accompanied by rapid
deleveraging. Savannah lacks (temporarily at least) high impact drilling excitement but –
to quote the views of one value-biased fund manager – the best catalyst can sometimes
be no catalyst at all. In our opinion, the numbers must eventually speak for themselves,
with a prodigious free cash flow yield forecast and the potential for a maiden dividend
next year. Our rebased Risked NAV estimate stands at 35p/share. Reiterated BUY.