Member Info for TrustILie

Komakino - I am just assuming that is it a fools game by Petronas and Savannah or are their background assurances we will never know until official one way or another..................

It wouldn't surprise me one bit what the government say in public and what they agree in private are 2 different things.

Which is one of the very reason's why I believe the Caltech saga was designed to do as there is greater pressure in the political realms in South Sudan to either nationalise the asset or achieve the best possible deal possible, we know that they don't have the capabilities to run operations and nationalise the asset, so the only remaining option being a deal but is there a genuine party willing to match or better our deal only time will tell. Putting out press releases such as Caltech saga allows the government to at least say that they explored viable alternatives and none bearing fruit they progressed with the only deal on table etc...................

Soder - One would think after the whole Caltech saga which was about 5 to 6 weeks ago the Savannah, Petronas and Government of South Sudan would have had a frank conversation to say are all parties still in or out, and considering we haven't heard anything since and Rocky's update seems like everyone is still working as if the deal is still on.

In terms of the deal progress and approvals, it's hard to tell as every deal is bespoke and works differently. But one would imagine at each stage there are progress, milestones and checkpoints for all parties Petronas, Savannah, and government of South Sudan. We know that Petronas and Savannah being the sellers and buyers would be hitting those however one would imagine that the government of South Sudan must being also hitting those checkpoints or completion tasks from their side as well to still keep Petronas and Savannah still at the table.

It would be illogical to think that for 10 months Petronas and Savannah have been completing those milestones on pure word of mouth basis and the South Sudan government have just being a spectator for the last 10 months only to hinge on a yes or no for them, one would hope that no deal is structured in such a way.

In summary the point I am making is are Petronas and Savannah foolish to do all this work for 10 months without any tangible progress and continue to do so or have they started to get binding assurance at each stage of the deal over the last 10 months thus allowing them to progress to the next stage each time. Obviously we know the final approval is always the main approval from the government.

Rockyride - Personally we have come to the end of October already and on the surface it looks like we are probably in the same position as end of June, July and September deadlines. I don't believe the final 2 weeks i.e the first 2 weeks of the December deadline will see meaningful progress so if we don't have news either via the company or we don't start to hear via publicly available news sources in the next 4 weeks i.e by the end of November than it would be safe to assume we are in the same position. With every chance of the deal going into next year.

Although saying this i hope the company keeps us appraised on debt restructure and Niger and everything else amongst the deal extensions........

Rocky - I am sure if you send an email you may get an out of office with an alternative contact that you could link into in any case let's hope we are in the realms of completion or edging ever closer towards it...............

As ever do keep us appraised as and when you manage to link in or get updates from IR.....

Interesting comments and production update by Nilepet MD on current production

Dar Petroleum Operating Company (DPOC) Block 3/7 - 40% Petronas Share = Current Production = 104,000 * 40% = Petronas Net Share = 41,600 bopd

Greater Pioneer Operating Company (GPOC) Block 1, 2 and 4 - 30% Petronas Share = Current Production = 50,000 * 30% = Petronas Net Share = 15,000 bopd

Sudd Petroleum Operating Company (SPOC) Block 5A - 67.9% Petronas Share = Current Production = 10,000 - 16,000 * 67.9% = Petronas Net Share = 6,790 - 10,185 bopd

If these figures are as the NIlepet MD says than our net share of total production for these assets on Completion could be in the range of 63,390 - 66,785 BOPD likely production profile on completion of 60-70K Bopd. The average for the year may be lower in 2022 and 2023. Due to periodic interruption in production and operational challenges but not a bad if on completion we continue to produce at the said levels and material enhance the production post acquisition if or when we take operatorship.

Production Profile of the company post acquisition in the next 12 months if things go our way:

1) Current Production 25,000 BOPD, we can easily add 10,000 bopd once the CPF facility completes next year and bring accugas closer to 35,000 Bopd.

2) Petronas South Sudan Acquisition - 63,390 - 66,785 BOPD, easily get to 90K+ post acquisition

3) Niger start up production circa 5,000 Bopd

4) Unlikely but if we reach a settlement on DOBA oil fields and get our 40% share of the 30,000 bopd that DOBA field produces adds another 12,000 BOPD

Granted we need a lot of things to go our way but it's easy to see why we are not willing to walk away from the Petronas South Sudan deal easily until the government formally reject our deal and hence we are happy to continue the stalemate. As the success case is probably worth the wait if the South Sudan deal does come through than it catapults the company overnight into being a 100,000 bopd company.

Seems to me that South Sudan is not ready for nationalisation so the only option would be to extend the PSC beyond 2027.

CNPC, ONGC, Petronas or Savannah would never commit to investment in licences until government formally and legally grant an extension through a revised production sharing agreements and not just word of mouth.

Interesting interview from Nilepet MD on eye radio. Watch from 3 mins onwards he touches on nationalisation and says that they are not ready etc……

https://fb.watch/nZVNEPIP1q/

https://www.eyeradio.org/amuor-urges-parliament-to-ensure-nilepet-independence/?fbclid=IwAR02ZfGlzQKr1qPbhFqYZiEljBvPwP9qkpffZhos_-wp9qraOlx6Lnyk9sQ_aem_AXdAZHI4BhHORj8cr98KBfUZyvXaSApLJA5-BiMJvoh6g6l_5sUy53Ynkzi_araqVY8

The company has got nothing to do with savannah energy

Definitely see this reaching a conclusion much sooner than the icc arbitration. where it’s currently at seems like no one is winner with funds frozen. So I would think a resolution will have to be reached pretty soon.

I find the below quote interesting in the article ‘ but also a nationalisation of Chadian oil that would not go as well as he had promised.’

Clearly the chad nationalisation is not going as hoped and clearly there are issues:

1) is it because they are likely to lose at icc arbitration ?

2) is it because there is a real risk of long term asset seizures and frozen funds has led to nervousness ?

3) are they having operational issues at DOBA fields affecting production it is not easy to become an operator overnight without experience of operating oil fields?

I believe over the next few days, weeks and months will be interesting to see how this unfolds……..

It is clear that the current stance around all the icc arbitration and nationalisation of assets is not going to be sustainable to continue and if it was there was no need to sack the last minister.

So the question is what is the new plan ? Will it be positive for savannah ? Surely it can’t be any more against than it currently is as they have nationalised the asset already which is the worst case scenario so it can only move towards a more positive outcome ?

Definitely on the new minister agenda…..

https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20231027-tchad-les-dessous-du-limogeage-du-ministre-des-hydrocarbures-et-de-l-énergie?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=x&utm_source=user

Chad: the underside of the dismissal of the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy

The Chadian transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, appointed, on Friday, October 27, a new Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy: Alixe Naïmbaye Ndolenodji, several times minister already at the time of Idriss Déby. She replaces Djerassem Le Bemadjiel in this position. Back to the underside of his dismissal.

The transitional president had promised, on the day of his inauguration on October 10, 2022, that "y by January 2023, energy production capacity will be tripled in the city of Ndjamena", under the perks of his public, before making it known that this "will make it possible to meet current, but also future needs".

The promise was not kept, on the contrary: electricity production has fallen sharply since then, because of technical problems, to the great displeasure of the Ndjaménois. Enough to make Mahamat Idriss Déby look red, who threatened, during the Council of Ministers on Friday, October 27, to "take all his responsibilities" in the face of these "repetitive shortcomings on the eternal energy issue", according to the official report of the government spokesman.

The cleaver fell a few hours later, with the signing of a decree dismissing Djerassem Le Bemadjiel in the early evening. "The president felt it was his fault and he thanked him," explains a high-ranking source. "But that's not the only reason," she adds. She mentions in particular problems of embezzlement, very bad relations with the big boss of the National Electricity Company (SNE), but also a nationalisation of Chadian oil that would no

I personally feel the chad government were willing to back the old minister in nationalising perhaps believing it was the right call at the time and would probably bear fruit, with the risk of losing ICC cases and potential frozen asset until the case is resolved which could still be 18 months away and a case which would like go in Savannah favour. Could they now be willing to come to some sort of an arrangement much sooner, let's see......................

I think in the first instance they may be willing to accept Savannah shareholding in the midstream business and pipeline as that was always considered a stretch to far and plus they don't have total jurisdiction over pipeline, that may be the first point to sort out so at least all partners are able to access the dividends / funds generated by the pipeline equivalent to their shareholding which I believe are frozen at the moment apart from paying salaries and suppliers........

Whether they are than willing to come to the negotiation table on the nationalised doba oil fields in chad or perhaps a settlement in terms of a payment to Exxon / Savannah or the unlikely scenario of accepting savannah as operators of the doba oil field.

I believe 2 separate issues but both would be on the new minister agenda especially with the backdrop of pending ICC cases.

I for one still believe that out of court settlement is the best way out for chad, either they pay up and officially takeover the doba oil field giving savannah and exxon a clean break or they handover operatorship to savannah. Judging by the fact that the hydrocarbon minister was sacked this week deliberations on the topic are definitely happening in the background and clearly there must be views amongst the political elite in chad in regards to what their next step is one which avoids a potential ruling against them well before ICC hands it's official verdict. Perhaps through their lawyers they must have already gauged probability of success in their favour and the advice they must have received isthat it's strongly weighted in the favour of savannah, let's hope whatever the outcome it bears fruit for savannah which ever way the dart lands.

Chad definitely looks like it's back in play in terms of news front and we perhaps may not need to wait 18 months for an ICC outcome....... ..........

Another interesting article - https://www.yenisafak.com/fr/international/tchad-le-ministre-de-lenergie-demis-de-ses-fonctions-14895

Chad: the Minister of Energy dismissed from office

The Chadian Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy, Djerassem Le Bemadjiel, was dismissed on Thursday, October 26, 2023 from the Government of Saleh Kebzabo.

This hasty departure from the government team comes eight days after the resignation of two ministers involved in a scandal, which led to a slight reorganisation of the government on October 21, 2023.

The decree of his dismissal, published on the page of the General Secretariat of the Government, gave no details on the reasons. However, some observers believe that the inability of the National Electricity Company (SNE) to regularly supply the city of N'Djamena, the Savannah Energy case and the freezing of assets are related to his departure.

Djerassem Le Bemadjiel was Minister of Oil under the late President Idriss Déby Itno from 2013 to 2016. He was the one who negotiated the loan of more than a billion dollars with Glencore, which plunged Chad into a financial crisis.

Accused of illicit enrichment, embezzlement of public funds and corruption, he was arrested in September 2020, then provisionally released in February 2021. He regained this position in the first transitional government put in place upon the death of President Déby. Then he was reappointed to the second government currently led by the opponent Saleh Kebzabo.

Under his leadership, the transitional government engaged in a legal standoff with Savannah Energy, a British firm, in the purchase of Esso Chad's shares. This showdown led to the nationalisation of Esso's shares and the creation of Chad Petroleum Company.

Interesting MR B - they have just announced the new hydrocarbon and energy minister it’s a female. Interested to see how it plays out for us in terms of out cases and also the nationalisation of doba assets.

Let’s hope she is more pragmatic in her approach and come to some sort of an agreement. Surely cases at ICC and potential frozen assets could not bet a good look for the departing minister and perhaps that’s what led to his departure.

https://www.facebook.com/sggtchad

Thanks JD, that's useful to know

Thanks JD, I heard the same as well. I believe Julian Horn our renewables director was the only Savannah Energy representative at the AEW......

Brilliant find MR B and thanks for sharing. It is indeed interesting to see what this means for us, and cant be such a bad thing as our chad position as it stands is already nationalised, so either it means no change and we wait till ICC ruling or could be some shift along some of the political lines that they may start to pivot from the nationalisation stance and be willing to come back to the negotiating table it remains to be seen, but one thing for sure is the chad petroleum minister sacking is probably significantly due to the nationalisation of assets and everything else around it with the number of cases at tribunal and the number of ICC cases. Perhaps the petroleum minister stretched his hand to far let's see where we get too on this............................................

Agreed Komakino - just interesting that the media coverage has started to come alive in regard to South Sudan oil and gas sector so must mean plenty of deliberations going on in the background

Https://worldoil.com/news/2023/10/24/south-sudan-asks-cnpc-to-boost-oil-production-recommits-to-partnership/

Seems like South Sudan may be scrapping there plans to nationalise assets if they have asked CNPC to boost production, so highly likely that there will be an extension on the PSC that were due to expire in 2027, I wonder what this means for savannah one would hope positive if they approve the savannah deal than we can work with CNPC to increase production as well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-24/south-sudan-asks-china-s-cnpc-to-boost-oil-output-stay-longer?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&leadSource=uverify%20wall

Thanks Scotpak for your analysis considering that Savannah have already said they have a term sheet in place one would assume that they have a provisional agreement. I am hoping that they are able to execute this in short order. Considering we have waited a very long time for the accugas debt to be re-structured.

Agreed rocky shame that savannah only refer to work streams as to avoid speculation they have really kept this really water tight. Agreed it could be a number of things. If there are a number of things I would say highly likely that this deal gets further extensions into next year. Personally if we don’t hear any news by mid to late November then I would assume that they are in the same position as end of September. I personally don’t think we need to wait till December 15th as per day to gauge if there has been progress