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Brilliant RNS from Harbour Energy yesterday also Afentra doing well and securing 2/3 approvals for their deals. Goes to show if done right there are always other deals out there.

I wish Savannah would pivot away from project that matter strategy in africa and look at other regions. It would be easier to finance those acquisitions and easier on the approvals front.

I must say I am slightly jealous to say the least that others are managing to do deals and we don't yet know what's happening with ours. Here is hoping to Savannah bringing south sudan or another deal successfully to the market via an admission document, no matter how big or small the deal is.

Angola has decided to leave Opec with Quota disputes, could this be a new trend amongst top african producing nations as they try to maximise there hydrocarbons, wouldn't surprise me if Nigeria is to also go down this path soon, other may follow.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/angolan-president-approves-opec-withdrawal-statement-2023-12-21/

African countries in summary are done playing with the west and now we will see many try to put their interest ahead of west. It would be interesting to see how Saudi and Russia respond to this. Are the wheels finally coming of the opec cartel. Don't think there will be any winners out of this if the market is flooded with supply than. All 3 top producers will suffer:

1) US will suffer as shale has a high price of breakeven.

2) Russia and Saudi budget is heavily reliant on oil price at certain level.

Fully concur we should really aim to to get accugas producing 50,000 Boepd at stable consisent rates and pay down as a much debt as possible, whilst re-financing. Work up a solid plan for Niger and be aggressive once export pipeline commences. These acquisitions are only good when they come of successfully but most governments in Africa will either nationalise or majors will sell to local players so the I believe the perceived opportunity from African investment is no longer exists would love to be proven wrong but that is just my view

Doing some further research I believe our partnership with AKWA IBOM Power company will turn into a material event. Here are a few articles why :

New oil refinery coming online in AKWA ibom for 200,000 bopd next year will probably need stable power and will be souced from IBOM power station

https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1568228-after-dangote-refinery-project-begins-consignment-arrives-china/

The plant produces current installed capacity of 191 MW and is owned by the Akwa Ibom State of Nigeria. But can produce up to 732 MW. The new deal shows that the aggregate maximum capacity of the gas turbine generator unit was capable of producing up to 732 megawatts.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/05/akwa-ibom-firm-seal-deal-for-732mw-ibom-power-plant-expansion/

New substation investment in region to transfer power from plant to national grid -

https://guardian.ng/news/fg-kick-starts-construction-of-n6-8bn-substation-in-a-ibom/

Power distribution licence approved to local neighbouring states from ibom power

https://businessday.ng/news/article/nerc-approves-electricity-distribution-company-for-akwa-ibom/

Akwa Ibom gives Fed Govt nod to offtake power from Ibom Power Plant

https://thenationonlineng.net/akwa-ibom-gives-fed-govt-nod-to-offtake-power-from-ibom-power-plant/#google_vignette

Seems like there is material potential in our partnership with Ibom Power company

There seems to be plenty of optimism in the Nigeria Gas sector and some recent comments from NNPC and total energy committing $6bn

https://championnews.com.ng/well-use-gas-to-revolutionise-nigerias-power-industrial-sectors-kyari/

https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/total-energies-plans-6bn-investment-in-nigerian-oil-and-gas-assets

I can see plenty of opportunity to have Amocon style agreements to use third party gas through our network. The beauty of our pipeline is that we have 10 TCF of undeveloped gas resource in and around our pipeline.

"The Accugas facilities and pipelines have significant spare capacity and are strategically located in South East Nigeria, an area where there is both substantial undeveloped gas resources (c. 10 Tscf undeveloped gas estimated to be located within tie-in radius of Accugas pipelines) and significant expected demand for gas from power stations and industrial off-takers in the Calabar, Port Harcourt, Aba and Uyo areas."

Rocky - the company and IR could be doing a lot more in keeping the shareholders appraised no matter how big or small the operational updates are and regardless of whether we are in a suspension period or not, there isn’t really any excuses there

Lets help ibom power with efficiency and optimal performance hopeful leading to a higher uptake in gas from us.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7142930068057595904?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7142930068057595904%29

Seems like we will have a greater influence in the running and making Ibom power plant efficient. Let's hope we can increase our take / pay gas from 20 MMscfd which is due to expire this month.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kuthompson_kuthompson-ariseagenda-umoeno-activity-7142765274172231680-_MMB?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

On a separate note looks like the CPF construction is running at full steam ahead we have hired a new construction co-ordinator

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adebanjoadebowale_im-happy-to-share-that-im-starting-a-new-activity-7142414769243820033-Bflu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

One thing that does intrigue me and can work in our favour is if we help power stations become more efficient like the Ibom power limited company link I posted below.

Seems to me that we are acting like techincal partners helping the power station become efficient and de-bottling the station to be able to handle stable transmission as part of this I am sure we can sell more gas to the Ibom power limited. It seems like we can act as technical partners and advisors for our customers and in return for more gas uptake, sounds like a win win model. We get more stable gas sales and potential increase in volumes.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we are doing that with a lot of our power station customers or plan to adopt this strategy.

Longshort - agreed it is frustrating to be suspended. But even without another acquisition there is a credible path to circa 50,000 boepd based on accugas alone in the next 6 -12 months if they pick up a few more gas contracts which I am sure they must be keen to get a few more.

Accugas has and is the crown Jewel of our portfolio and its organic growth and projected growth more than underpins the company regardless of acquisition outcomes and Nigeria being probably the most stable country to own an oil and gas asset.

Hence I was and still i am a bit surprised that they haven’t been able to secure another asset in country yet or perhaps they might in the not distant future.

Nigeria has signficant number of development assets which are capital starved. I am sure they are quite a few that could give 5 - 10 k Bopd per asset they should be more aggressive with these too and not just assets that majors are selling.

Yes granted we all want the big deals as that is overnight transformation and all I want for Christmas is deals for savannah whether SS or another.

If raising debt for SS is proving to be difficult and there are other assets going in relatively attractive jurisdictions we should go for those considering our ability to finance deals is hedge on the jurisdiction as we always opt for ring fenced financing perhaps it’s time we went to our lenders with an alternative deal which isn’t SS.

Based on the below growth rate of new gas contracts in motion and potential more gas contracts with hopeful debt restructure will have a material impact on the accugas business significant increase in revenues with debt restructure to match contract life can easily shift the Risked NAV estimate well beyond 45p/share.

I did a spreadsheet table this afternoon looking at the gas contracts we have shame I can't post the table on here for all. Our H1 2023 run rate was H1 2023 with an average of 25.3 Kboepd. Here is some of my highlights:

1) Notore Chemical Industries PLC - 10 MMscfd (1,772 BOEPD) Contract July to September 23 have averaged more than twice this at 26.3 MMscfpd (4,661 BOEPD) 12 Months Extension in H1 2023 + 16.3 MMscfd (+2,889 BOEPD)

2) Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited - 6 MMscfd (1,063 BOEPD) Added +3 MMscfd (+532 BOEPD) August 2023

3) Amocon - 20 MMscfpd (3,545 BOEPD) -Delivery Commenced April 2023 at 18 MMscfpd (3,190 BOEPD)

4) Ibom Power Company Limited (owner of the Ibom power station) - Contract till December 2023 (Extension Discussion Ongoing Potential opportunity to increase supply materially here I reckon as we are working with the local government to make this power station efficient and stable so as part of our assistance we could perhaps increase the current 20 MMscfpd (3,545 BOEPD) Take / Pay materially would be nice to double it to 40 MMscfpd (7,090 BOEPD)

https://thesouthernexaminer.com/why-eno-is-seeking-partnership-to-enhance-nigerias-epileptic-power-sector-p11079-202.htm

"Then we also have the Savannah Energy that supplies gas, they are willing to assist by coming up with solutions."

I would expect our H2 2023 average to be a lot closer to 30,000 boepd (H1 2023 (25,300 BOPED + Notore increase (+2,889 BOEPD)+ Shell increase (+532 BOEPD) + Amocon (3,190 BOEPD) = 31,911 BOEPD or circa 180 MMscfpd

I believe there is still additional scope sell more processed gas up to 200 MMscfpd (35,448) or 240 MMscfpd (42,538 BOEPD) as per Rocky IR update, and that's without the CPF facility to come in H1 2023 next year so in theory we can add anywhere between 20 MMscfpd (3,545 BOEPD) - 60 MMscfpd (10,634 BOEPD)

Would love to get daily production stable and in the range of 35,000 - 40,000 BOEPD, prior to CPF facility. Let's hope the company is hunting for additional gas customers aggressively perhaps we might get it through number 4 above Ibom Power Company Limited (owner of the Ibom power station) contract up fro renewal December 2023

Anyways I am hoping the board are able to provide an operational update and perhaps close out the ever illusive accugas debt re-structure before the end of 2023.

Thanks for confirming rocky, I wasn't aware that debt providers had pulled away since.

The Africa Energy quote I was referring to below was an article from April 2023 - "African Energy understands the expropriation of Savannah’s upstream assets in Chad should not affect the deal, as financing for the South Sudan deal is ring-fenced."

It's clear the chad nationalisation as not affected our ability to raise finance for Petronas deal, that quote was April 2023 and we are in December so one would imagine with economic interest date the debt needed would be even lower thus making in more easier to access financing.

Clearly the challenges for this deal lies elsewhere and not related to companies ability to access capital.

As for financing is concerned for this deal. My understand is that the financing for Petronas deal is ring fenced meaning the chad revenues and fx loss has not affected our ability to finance the Petronas deal and this was highlighted in the Africa energy article earlier this year

So with African energy being quite a credible news source it’s safe to say funding this acquisition is not what’s holding this deal up.

Rockyride - I for one believe the company should have reasonable inclination of whether government consent is forthcoming or not as one would imagine that there is some financial incentive tied to this deal for SS government as well and by that I mean a signing bonus and not just revenues from an incremental production by a new operator. If government approval is only thing outstanding that you would like to hope that the South Sudan government have agreed commercial terms as I am sure there are payments to them attached to this deal.

Personally If I was AK I would use every day of extension period to secure another deal and walk away from SS deal if we are going no where but obviously it’s hard for me to say when we don’t have all the facts from the company

I was just carefully reading the wording written on the Thursday RNS and they have purposely omitted the word “admission document”. I could be wrong but I reckon from our side the admission document is complete and until we get explicit government consent I believe savannah will not come to the market with the Admission document without approval as they don’t want another chad situation potentially so hence I believe Admission document is complete and we have got an extension till 1st February to get explicit consent so we can release admission document / feel comfortable enough to release AD or if SS government don’t give Explicit consent or if they drag their feet than I don’t see us releasing the admission document and perhaps we will just walk away at that point without admission document actually being brought to the market.

The above scenario might be credible considering rocky has always insisted in his IR updates that AK only wants to come to market with admission document and government consent.

Personally and being very realistic something drastic would have to happen in the space of 5-6 weeks for government to grant approval so is this extension more speculative hope that government of South Sudan approves or is it backed by genuine and credible expectation and progress made in firm approval timeline backed by pre-conditional agreements already which are binding toward explicit consents we will see…………….

“Further to the Company's announcement on 29 September 2023, the Company continues to advance the various workstreams required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan. In this regard, a further extension to the Company's cancellation date has been granted to 1 February 2024. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.”

Rocky SCAP update alluding to a shorter timeframe “ Given the relatively close proximity of the prior 15 December 2023 extension deadline, and the beginning of February 2024, we maintain confidence in Savannah's ability to publish the related AIM admission document within this newly updated timetable”

The above comment from SCAP is interesting - the use of the word “confidence”. I am hoping their “confidence” is credible and backed with genuine expectation as they might have better insight and access to the stage the company are at with this transaction and hopefully they know how approvals are progressing or whether we have made significant progress i.e if we had to get 10 approvals in total than we have secured 7 is what I mean.

Also this is interesting “ within this newly updated timetable”. That says to me that admission document should be published much earlier than 1 Feb 24. The use of the word within the timetable. So if we start to head into the final 1.5 - 2 weeks of Jan approaching the 1 Feb 24 deadline than it would be safe to assume we haven’t made any progress s

Let's hope positive things to come in Niger with export pipeline potentially starting Jan 2024 and potential ease of sanctions

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/niger-junta-agrees-plan-restore-democracy-togo-minister-says-2023-12-15/

Thanks for sharing Rockyride - I do truly believe the downside risk is limited Accugas going from strength to strength. You have to remember that we would have been suspended for a whole year and Accugas has continued to grow with Amocon gas contract as well all of that will be factored in when we return, plus if they finally get the debt restructuring out the way than that will contribute to the sp as well alongside the CPF facility completion in a matter of months, if Niger and CNPC start pipeline export i can see some positive sentiment filtering through from that as well as the market will anticipate a potential higher chance of us starting work in Niger.