Member Info for TrustILie

Niger - https://fluidhandlingmag.com/news/new-niger-benin-pipeline-set-to-deliver-barrels-of-crude/

Interested to see what they plan to do with Niger will they be aggressive we know that the port in Lome is open and Togo through Burkina Faso corridor is open for goods into Niger. Have they explored this option to get equipment into Niger ?

Rockyride - As much as the timelines have stretched if it means that we are still on a successful deal path and we extend to 31st March 2024 than by all means I am happy to buy into further extensions with limited information, but if there aren't any binding assurances and extensions based on hope rather than actual substance of definite binding agreements than there will come a point where a sensible choice will have to be made.

Longshort - My thoughts exactly takeover the assets for now and cede control over a number of years once the south sudan government and Nilepet have built up capacity...................

It would seem illogical to sit at the table for over 14 months and not get any deal in south sudan, even if it's 50% of Petronas current assests in south sudan........

But we will never know until we hear something from Savannah

Certainly is one thing I find very interesting is no one from government since the deal has ever commented publicly or mentioned the name savannah which is complete strange even.............

I would have expected some sound bites whether postie or negative mentioning Savannah. The information is some what strange...............

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jane-middleton-hr-recruitment_peopleandculture-clientfeedback-collaboration-activity-7148251685117726720-7UDe?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Https://energycapitalpower.com/attractive-investment-destinations-africa-2024/

I think the only country that we have had break interactions with is Senegal where we signed an MOU in July 2023 so I wonder if we have been able to identify opportunities in Senegal since I am sure there are plenty of opportunities up for grabs

https://twitter.com/GregoireTour/status/1678453479696736268

Not to mention the Akwa Ibom refinery due to commence shortly as well. 2 refineries commencing in our OML 13 licence area with accugas pipeline with 10TCf of gas potential and CPF facility to come on stream in a few months. Surely we will be able to wrap a material additional gas contracts this year.

Port Harcourt refinery due to come online, I wonder if demand for our gas will increase as I am sure a refinery needs a lot stable power supply and plenty of power stations in and around port harcourt and linked through 3rd party pipelines connecting to accugas pipeline as per the map attached provided by savannah below.

https://punchng.com/pharcourt-refinery-begins-test-run-rivers-11-others-get-supply-soon/

https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/New-Natural-Gas-Sales-and-Purchase-Agreement-signed-with-Amalgamated-Oil-Company-Nigeria-Limited-Final.pdf

As per savannah website port harcourt is a significant customer base

The Accugas facilities and pipelines have significant spare capacity and are strategically located in South East Nigeria, an area where there is both substantial undeveloped gas resources (c. 10 Tscf undeveloped gas estimated to be located within tie-in radius of Accugas pipelines) and significant expected demand for gas from power stations and industrial off-takers in the Calabar, Port Harcourt, Aba and Uyo areas.

Looks like Niger more or less coming online in the next few weeks, with the export pipeline.

https://www.facebook.com/100001187690951/posts/pfbid0w43oKCBWc6VGPJBL684KRaR1QZf8cChjFHkB81rN7ejmQyPnHX114XTASLff8SMdl/?d=n&mibextid=WC7FNe

Also port of Benin restrictions being lifted will slowly start to see progress in Niger.

Happy New Year All,

I wonder if AK stayed in South Sudan during the holiday period, or perhaps he returned with a view to go back this week…….,………

Surely if we are to see progress than you would hear from the company or other news sources within 2 / 3 weeks and if not that we are where we have always been with 1 February deadline likely to be missed

Rockyride - good to hear from you mate and I am sure we will hear a lot more from you in the new year.

We have all been really patient in 2023 let’s hope our patience is rewarded in the new year 2024.

Happy new year all

Also the naira has the chance of strengthening as Dangote refinery starts regulator mandates supply to refinery

https://www.arise.tv/in-compliance-with-petroleum-act-nigerian-regulator-mandates-oil-companies-to-supply-483000-bpd-of-crude-oil-to-local-refineries/

The start up of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria could potentially have a few impacts on the USD to Naira exchange rate:

Reduced demand for foreign currency: Nigeria currently imports the majority of its refined fuel products. The Dangote refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day could eliminate the need to import a significant amount of refined fuel, reducing demand for foreign currency like the US Dollar. This could strengthen the Naira.

Increased FX inflows: The refinery could also increase foreign capital inflows into Nigeria as foreign investors seek to invest in supporting industries and services around the refinery. More dollar inflows could lead to Naira appreciation.

Revenue source for government: The refinery is expected to generate significant tax revenue for the government. This additional Naira revenue source could support the central bank's efforts to defend and stabilize the currency.

Longshort - not sure but if terms have been agreed than surely it doesn’t take that long to do debt restructure so I wonder if they are controlling the timing of the announcement intentionally

I wonder if Savannah have considered using port in Lome Togo to get equipment into Niger, as that corridor is open into Niger. Looks like Benin backtracking seems like they don't want to lose future port revenues to Togo. Savannah should exercise all available options to get equipment into Niger to commence work

https://nouvelledafrique.tg/niger-levee-de-sanction-par-le-benin-niamey-privilegie-les-corridors-du-togo/#google_vignette

Following the considerable decline in the Beninese economy due to the country's sanction following last July's coup d'état in Niger, the Beninese state lifted the sanctions this week, but the Niger Chamber of Commerce is asking operators economical to continue using the corridors of Togo.

The Niger Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press release published on December 28, 2023, invites economic operators to continue to use Togo's ports and corridors to transport goods.

Here is the press release

“By Notice No. 2325/23/PAC/DOPS/DI/DAF/DAJC/DCM/SC of December 27, 2023, the Autonomous Port of Cotonou informs the public of the lifting of the measure relating to the suspension at the Port of Cotonou , imports of goods to Niger.

However, the Niger Chamber of Commerce and Industry reminds economic operators that illegal, unjust and unfair ECOWAS sanctions remain, in particular those relating to the closure of borders, with the aim of blocking commercial transactions with our country.

To do this, the Niger Chamber of Commerce and Industry invites economic operators to continue to use the ports and corridors which have served our country since the events of July 26, 2023.” indicates the press release

Streetsofgold - I would still imagine that we can have incremental gas deals ahead of the CPF completion mid next year. However post CPF accugas business can easily x2 or x3 easily. So the period once the CPF is complete would be most interesting. I also posted that we have started some work with Ibom power company, to improve efficiency of the plant. If we have more gas available than we need more buyers / customers to be able to successfully take up gas . So I believe all areas of the supply chain would be worked on in the background to make the cluster development of 5tcf of gas in OML 13 feasible using the accugas pipeline once the CPF facility is complete.

You mentioned a guesstimate it’s hard to put a guesstimate as everyone knows but I would like to see our production from accugas alone to be in the 50,000. - 60,000 Boepd by the end of 2024 especially post CPF. Again this is me just making assumption so let’s see but all the potential is there and ready it’s about how savannah are able to convert aggressively. The pipeline is there, the gas is there, the cpf once complete will enable us to transport more treated gas but there is nothing stopping us from transporting untreated gas at the moment.

I am feeling more optimism with the accugas business for the next 6, 12, 18 months and beyond and if they are able to also convert the accugas debt into long tenure than the cumulative effective will be massive stretched debt payments over 10 / 15 years and substantial increase in gas revenues will have double the effect on the accugas business.

OML 13 development is a key NNPC's Seven Critical Gas Development Projects and thus will affect is and massively underpin the accugas business and provide for material growth.

Cluster development of OML 13 to support the

expansion of Accugas Uquo Gas Plant

400 mmscfd expected volume or circa 70,000 boepd

Cluster gas development of OML 13 with 2Preserves of ~5Tcf

Expansion of the existing Accugas Uquo Gas Plant

Development of the Trans-Nigeria Gas Pipeline to transport the processed gas further to the domestic market from Ukanafun

A detailed report - https://www.ashurst.com/en/insights/nigerias-energy-transition/

Looking at the list of 7 gas projects our project is most likely to be monetised quickly with existing pipeline in place but also the Uquo gas compression project already under way and we all know our pipeline has a capacity of 600 mmscfd with accugas probably only utilising 200 mmscfd fits perfectly with that 400 mmscfd expected volume.

Some additional info on OML 13

https://www.offshore-technology.com/data-insights/oil-gas-field-profile-oml-13-conventional-gas-field-nigeria/?cf-view

https://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-oml-13-67681449/

With our pipeline being the only gas pipeline that runs through the OML 13 licence I am sure we can be big winners of the planned oil and gas development . In this licence area

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/04/10/with-89-expected-assets-nigeria-to-top-africas-upcoming-oil-gas-projects-by-2027

https://saharareporters.com/2019/07/24/nnpc-signs-315bn-deal-financing-oml-13

https://energycapitalpower.com/top-upstream-oil-gas-projects-nigeria-23-27/

“Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) through its upstream subsidiary and Natural Oilfield Services Limited (NOSL), an indigenous operator, are jointly handling exploration work on OML 13.It’s a large block in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria’s oil rich Niger Delta and is reported to hold in place volumes of over 900 million barrels of oil and 5 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas.Nigeria has also recently concluded the bidding and award process for about 57 marginal fields which, other things being equal, would likely begin to produce first oil from the end of 2023”

Savannah has previously said there is 10 tcf plus gas in OML 13 licence which is basically our pipeline network runs through.

The CPF completion is perfectly timed in my opinion and I can see us fully capitalising on the developments happening in OML 13. Plenty of Amocon style deals are likely to be done. They did say Amocon deal will serve as a template.

Probably makes sense that they might want to keep some spare capacity available in readiness for when OML 13 production kicks off..

Our pipeline in someway was probably the smartest move AK made when going for accugas asset. Having the right geographically placed midstream asset can be invaluable as demonstrated by the accugas pipeline.

I believe when we went for Exxon chad DOBA asset it was the same thinking to have the Cotco pipeline as midstream assets in and around oil and gas fields can prove to be invaluable every producer has to use them if there are no alternative export routes.

If oil and gas fields come online in OML 13 then we will be massive winners of this. Which is why I believe Savannah energy has continued to hire in regions like uyo and eket as they might be ready to exploit the potential development that is to come from OML 13 lease

Longshort - with or without South Sudan deal I would expect a comprehensive operational update on Nigeria and Niger and also the forward strategy considering we have had nothing of that sort for over a year now.

Hope everyone had an amazing Christmas break

Looks like Benin has opened it's borders for goods import into Niger, time for savannah energy to now be aggressive and start importing goods into Niger to get things in motion for well test.

My guess is this move is driven by both the countries alongside CNPC to get the pipeline exporting crude in the new year and that probably requires goods and material for oil fields operation

https://www.africanews.com/2023/12/28/benin-removes-suspension-of-transiting-goods-to-niger//

With import of goods opening from benin port and starting of export pipeline let's hope savannah can now take Niger a lot more seriously and start to be aggressive.

I am quietly feeling optimistic about Niger now and it's slowly starting to come back into play.