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Zengas - On the basis of what you are saying, I think if we if don't receive news by end of November than it is fair to say we are probably in the same place as end of September. My personal opinion is that the first 2 weeks of December probably aren't going to change the position we are in at the end of November. I tend to discount December as a slow month as it's pretty hard to get things moving quickly leading up to Christmas and new year break. So in reality wouldn't put it past if there was another extension till end of Feb / March 2024. Again Jan tends to be a slow month as well going into the new year.

So if December 15th is not achieved than with every chance we are looking at 31st March 2024.....................

Interested to see the response you get from your strong email rocky that you sent on Friday

Rocky - let’s hope there is sustained newsflow in the lead up to December 15th………….. surely not another 2.5 months of silence……. From the company………………

Rocky - If the benin starts the pipeline that means ecowas restrictions will be lifted so continue to look out for what happens there..................................................

1) restructure accugas debt

2) If benin start the pipeline than I hope savnnah aggressively move to drill and flow testing well in short order and work up plans to connect 5,000 bopd to pipeline.

3) I believe they will be working on other deals in the background we know they are looking at Nigeria and Congo both being offshore assets, and i am sure there is plenty of other opportunities they have already worked the technicals on.............

Brilliant insight Scotpak thanks let hope we get some news on accugas debt restructure in October...............

they mentioned that we will get an update on niger plans in q4 and i believe it will be driven by this ecowas restricting. china will force benin hand................

talon seeks to reassure xi jinping over cnpc-agadem pipeline

the fate of the export pipeline for cnpc's crude, one of the most important potential sources of revenue for the new junta in niamey, now lies in the hands of patrice talon in neighbouring benin. he is under pressure from ecowas to delay its launch.

behind the scenes, the beninese president patrice talon is continuing to assuage chinese concerns over the export pipeline for agadem crude, whose launch may be delayed following the coup in neighbouring niger on 26 july.

though oil is a central pillar of chinese-beninese relations, the subject went unmentioned in both countries' official media coverage of talon's visit to beijing in september. but although the minutes of their talks were similarly silent on the matter, oil issues were indeed discussed by the beninese leader and his chinese counterpart xi jinping at their meeting on 1 september.

according to our sources, the latter expressed his concern at the potential repercussions of the coup in niger on the pipeline that exports the oil of the state-owned china national petroleum corp (cnpc) via benin.

his main worry is that the pipeline transporting crude from the agadem region to the beninese port of semè will not come on line in october as scheduled, economic community of west african states (ecowas) sanctions on niger having led to the closing of the border between the two countries. talon did his best to reassure his opposite number on this point.

ecowas pressures talon

meanwhile, the new nigerian president and current ecowas chair ahmed bola tinubu, who is hoping to orchestrate the return to power of the ousted nigerien leader mohamed bazoum, is pressuring talon to block the launch of the pipeline, which would throw a welcome financial lifeline to the junta if it comes on line rapidly.

had the situation not changed so suddenly in niamey, the pipeline was to have carried nearly 96,000 barrels a day. the putschists and their leader, general abdourahamane tchiani, are hoping to negotiate a compromise with ecowas so that the crude can flow to its destination.

on 8 september, tchiani, who appointed mahaman moustapha barké as minister for oil, mines and energy in the government of ali lamine zeine on 10 august, signed a decree featuring the name of his new adviser on oil, mahaman laouan ***a. having served as secretary-general at the oil ministry during the presidency of mahamadou issoufou, ***a held the same job title at the african petroleum producers' organization (appo) up until 2020.

Rockyride - I am personally hoping for more newsflow in the period leading up the the December 15th date personally I think it's poor if they go silent for another 2.5 months like they did since 27th July update...................................

Whatever that news flow is we need some rns to keep the investor base appraised. it's a 2 way partnership between us shareholders and the company. Happy to not to be informed about south sudan if it jeopardises the deal until the company is comfortable to do so but at the same time we deserve sustained newsflow and comms as well, not constant new blackouts...............................

I hope AK and IR are cognisant of this matter of fact

Agreed Komakino - The accugas business is resilient I think most on here would agree that H2 numbers will bring the net debt number back towards the downside as the baits charge was a one off.

I guess most on here now that there is still value in this business with Nigeria alone to be greater than our suspended price.

A lot of the sentiment is frustration around going into suspension without anything to show for……………………

Also one would hope with the number of individuals that have joined the business from lawyers to geologist to corporate staff to field staff that there would be significant news flow that would correspond to the headcount build. Granted AK May be focused on closing deals. But I expect others within their business to pull their weight as well specifically in Nigeria…………………

I believe the thought process for the continued extensions are AK knows this is probably the last window of suspension he will get to bring in a significant deal in successfully. Otherwise there would be major push back to come to market without a deal and then ask for a suspension again which takes a few more months. So I believe the thought process would be to extend the current window to bring a deal home. Now we can all guess whether that’s South Sudan or another asset but I believe that’s probably the high level thinking

Welcome Scotpak - I concur with rocky and zengas keenly your posts coming, and brilliantly articulated

Rockyride - I am not disputing it i was just putting it out there for debate. I fully conquer there is a lot of work that needs to be done. If I was AK as a minimum KPI he should be able to re-finance the accugas dent no questions whats so ever if not he needs to explicitly say why ?

then he needs to continue with additional gas contract that utilise full processed capacity up to 200 mmscfd and so additional third party gas as well......

My take is we could potential use some bridging finance in the short term before we agree a long term debt package for South Sudan assets and Maddox have provided us bridging finance in the past

My take is as follows - I don’t think approvals is the only hold up here. Perhaps debt providers need some certainty before they finance our deal.

1) Accugas Debt re-financed. Prior to new debt package wasn’t an issue when we struck the SPA. As we had chad / Cameroon funds and revenue to rely on…………..

2) Also when we struck the SPA there wasn’t a civil war envisaged in Sudan which could threaten our ability to service the debt for the South Sudan assets.

I know that approval is a sticking point but I don’t think it’s the only reason that the admission document has not been released. Perhaps a couple of additional months of $90 plus will help drop the economic adjustment price of the asset and also time to re-finance the debt as well………

J.D - Work some magic whilst you are out there buddy................................................

AimHardy -Welcome mate..............................

Good to have you on board. I am confident to that we will have another acquisition as well. let's hope with the next one we can actually return to the market with an AD...........................

Perhaps we need Sunbed from Advfn to put a call into the Nomad think he has spoken to them before...................

I think this extension will buy us time to complete an SPA where we can release an admission document...............................

We know that the company have worked up all the technicals on assets and it wouldn't surprise me if another deal lands prior to SS and there is plenty of evidence of that from my linkedin post.

I believe if we should ideally strike an SPA on a Nigerian asset and release an admission document covering the new asset and let SS fester in the background.....................................

One thing I still cant get my head around is the SS admission document does not need explicit approval to release the admission document so I get the wish is to come back with approval but not required.

Are we all just assuming that the government approval is the only thing that's blocking this.................................................. who knows...............................................................

Zengas - Shore and Cavendish have posted on research tree so if you have access to those, and happy to share apologies i dont have access to researchtree

https://twitter.com/research_tree/status/1707667828671733776

https://twitter.com/research_tree/status/1707672849341632574

I am interested to see the tone that south sudan take at africa energy week and also what savannah do. I believe we had a poster on here who was going to it so let's see...............

It's all well and good going to these conferences saying the country is open to business when in reality they are not willing to sanction any approvals....................

Thanks Mate - I know it's a lot to ask........................................ Only if it's not to much bother.......................................

At least you have kept us up to date in the quiet peroids when there has been radio silence from the company and I know we all appreciate the time you take to do it.........

Also if you could check if that additional significant deal that they talked about still on before December or not.