The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Looks like Equatorial Guinea is still trying to find some buyers for Zafiro and another field.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/02/08/teodorin-obiang-offers-zafiro-and-fortuna-fields-to-eni,110157308-bre
Interesting interview for IC, one thing I did pick up if the mention of credit guarantee of the accugas asset and if Savannah can get a similar credit guarantee on south sudan than it would be a great deal, could world bank provide a credit guarantee for this purchase as part of it's development goals for the country and seen as the country is heavily reliant on oil revenues to fund national budget ?
Gas shortage supply to Akwa Ibom Power plant, we supply 20 mmscfd which ended December 2023, Can we materially increase our supply with a new gas contract and significant volume or is there a constraint until CPF is completed. Definitely an opportunity here to increase volume significantly.
https://leadership.ng/power-grid-restored-as-tcn-blames-collapse-on-gas-shortage/
https://tdpelmedia.com/power-grid-restored-as-tcn-blames-collapse-on-gas-shortage/
GSA to supply 20 MMscfpd of gas to Ibom Power Company Limited, operator of the Ibom power station, for a ten-year period which ends in December 2023 with a take-or-pay commitment of 80% of the contracted volume. The GSA is expected to be renewed and discussions are ongoing. The Ibom power station has a current installed capacity of 191 MW and is owned by the Akwa Ibom State of Nigeria.
My timeline expectations and the patience timeframe I am willing to give for suspension to continue until maximum timeframe is 30th June 2024. My reasons are as follows:
1) Q1 2024 results released by than - usually comes 2nd week of April 24
2) Full year 2023 results released by than - usually comes 2nd week of June 24
3) Hopefully update on accugas debt re-structure by than
4) Hopefully update on ICC cases by than.
5) CPF completion + material increase in accugas contracts
6) Time to execute an additional deal or alternative deal whatever the SS outcome.
7) South Sudan oil and power 2024 oil conference last week of June so it will either support or expose SS government to drive investment. Our deal decision eill sway investor interest and confidence on event and investment environment in SS
8) Progress and update on Niger work programme and Niger export pipeline.
I believe in my mind 30th June 2024 is the upmost period I am willing to accept in my mind, which allows enough time for the company to progress all of the above but also underpin the company and protect and enhance shareholder value beyond our suspended price.
After 30th June 2024, I don’t believe there is any sensible justification for the company to remain suspended beyond this date if they aren’t able to progress a few of the above items and would happily accept coming to market whatever the status of progress on above.
Some may disagree but I believe that timeframe allowed is the ideal timeframe in my mind
Thanks Rockyride - I am still of the opinion that with accugas with CPF completion will transform the company into another level in a few months time. One thing I will say is that all deals in Africa are difficult even Nigeria as we witnessed first hand how long it took for the accugas deal to reach conclusion that being said we have 3 offices in Nigeria and big Nigeria staff base we should still pursue another asset base in Nigeria to fully utilize our Nigerian staff and maximise efficiency
I just had a thought this morning and wondered if anyone had a view on this and whether it's technically and legally possible. Could we complete another deal whilst we wait out decisions on SS government prior to the SS Deal. What I mean is return to market with another deal which enlarges the company so it doesn't need to stay suspended prior to the SS Deal, than the SS deal can play out in it's own time with the deal still intact in the background if it continues to take longer.....................
I wonder if that's actually possible in this same suspension window and whether legally and technically allowed given that we were suspended for the SS Deal in the first place so would be able to re-order the running order and execution of deals ?
Probably a legal or a Nomad question one would think ?
As with all deal making there is an escrow process so folks can google it, so all parties to transaction feel comfortable to commit to each other using a third party a legal firm. So the South Sudan government can feel comfortable that Savannah can finance the acquisition and has backers and the debt providers can feel comfortable that they have assurance on government approvals, It's a matching process and it happens in tandem, you can have the approvals happen later but in this case I believe Savannah and Debt providers would want approvals and debt execution to happen concurrently to give assurance to both parties, so the escrow process allows for this and both parties can not say you are not providing debt or you are not providing approvals, they can both satisfy each other through escrow.
It really comes down to SS government will to complete this deal and let's be frank that's the only thing that matters with this acquisition and nothing else really
Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review)
South Sudan acquisition update
In a short RNS this morning, Savannah has confirmed that (further to its prior announcements) the company continues to advance the various workstreams – including the receipt of relevant approvals in-country – required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International’s South Sudanese portfolio.
Regarding this major proposed reverse takeover transaction, Savannah reports today that AIM has granted a further extension to 2 April, with subsequent updates to be provided as and when appropriate.
Given the further eight-week extension that has now been secured, regarding this obviously significant transaction, we believe that publication of the related AIM admission document can be very realistically expected within this newly updated timetable – and will look forward to further news in due course.
Whilst acknowledging that publication of the admission document (relating to the South Sudanese reverse takeover deal) had originally been expected to occur at an earlier stage, we continue to sense that Savannah is pressing on to ensure that this can occur as soon as possible – noting AIM’s granting of the further extension announced today.
We will obviously continue to look forward to admission document publication, at which point we will be in a position to fully assess the incoming South Sudanese assets. Whilst the shares will naturally remain suspended ahead of this, we continue to forecast material organic revenues and cash flow in the meantime. Our last-published Risked NAV estimate stands at 45p/share.
Https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/petroleum-minister-backs-inclusive,-fair-global-energy-transition-from-fossil-fuels/548
Rockyride - That's how I read the article as well, plus they did mention one other acquisition by end of 2023 and this was in the half year report so they clearly had runway to do another acquisition alongside SS whatever the outcome.
On Assala Gabon assets the articles implied that the bid deadline set was 20th Jan 2024, so I wonder if things are much more progressed on the Assala assets that yesterday article suggests, Yesterday's article may have been delayed reporting by Africa Intelligence
Fair Point Scotpak the article I posted yesterday seems to suggest that us pursuing Assala assets in Gabon is more a substitute for Chad rather than south sudan so let's see. Africa Intelligence still seems to suggest that SS is still on or at least the article yesterday seems to imply that. Now we can all sit here and guess how much we trust AI news sources, however they were very early in highlighting our interest in Petronas South Sudan assets so here is me hoping there comment is based on more credible actual intelligence from people close to the deal as supposed to a throw away comment based on conjecture on whats publicly available so far.
Vitol seems to be the only trader / financier considering but they want a credible operator to manage the assets, I am guessing that's where Savannah comes in.............. I wonder if we go 50/50 split as yesterday article suggest that we are going for these assets due to Chad nationalisation. If we did get Chad Exxon and Petronas assets as originally intended that would have been circa 20,000 bopd. If we get 50/50 on the Assala assets than that would replace the 20,000 bopd that was intended from chad initially.
Plus going in with a joint bid with the government means approvals will not be an issue as long as Carlyle accept the bid and the Gabonese government want us a partner.
An extension on yesterday article referring to Gabon assala assets..........
"Vitol seems to be the trader most in tune with the government's aspirations. But it does not want to commit to a deal worth nearly a billion dollars without a serious operator capable of helping GOC in the management of complex oil assets."
Gabonese officials are working on a financial package that would enable them to pre-empt Carlyle's assets and to counter an offer from Maurel & Prom.
A team from the Gabon Oil Co (GOC) were in Paris on 17 and 18 January to address the crucial issue of the state's pre-emption of Carlyle's Gabonese assets (45,000 bpd). The delegation met with Carlyle managers and in particular Guido Funes Nova, the Italian who is in charge of the asset sale project. Carlyle wants more details on the financial package envisaged by GOC, and has given it until 20 January to submit its final offer.
After several months of negotiations between oil companies and Libreville, Vitol seems to be the trader most in tune with the government's aspirations (AI, 11/12/23). But it does not want to commit to a deal worth nearly a billion dollars without a serious operator capable of helping GOC in the management of complex oil assets.
Among the firms contacted by GOC is TotalEnergies, from whose ranks its managing director Marcellin Simba Ngabi comes. But the French major does not seem genuinely interested in investing in Gabon, and has in recent years been selling off its assets there (AI, 25/11/21).
Time is of the essence. By the end of 2021, Carlyle had launched the process of selling its Gabonese assets, which it had acquired from Shell in 2017 and then entrusted to Assala Energy. The US group announced last August that it had reached a sale agreement with Maurel & Prom of the Pertamina group.
Game-changer
Gabon's coup d'Ă©tat on 30 August was a complete game-changer. The new regime quickly announced its intention to pre-empt these same assets (AI, 19/10/23). This was confirmed by junta leader Oligui Nguema in his address to the nation on 31 December. The new Gabonese administration has since then been scrambling to find the funds to counter Maurel & Prom's bid.
Maurel & Prom has since made it clear to its Gabonese counterparts that it is prepared to compromise. If the government agrees to its offer to buy Carlyle's assets, it will gladly sell part of its new holdings to GOC. However, during a trip to Libreville late last year, Maurel & Prom CEO Olivier de Langavant was not received by either the junta leader or any of his ministers.
Given the high value of the transaction, Maurel & Prom is confident. Its directors believe that it will be difficult for the government's teams to put together a convincing financial package and find a technical partner familiar with Gabon
Gabon
Savannah Energy joins the race for a share of Carlyle's oil assets
Savannah Energy, the oil company owned by British national Andrew Knott, wrote recently to the oil ministry with an offer to help it pre-empt the oil assets currently held by Carlyle group subsidiary Assala Energy (AI, 26/01/24). Savannah thus joins half a dozen other oil companies trying to cash in on the planned sale of the assets, which currently produce 45,000 barrels of oil per day. Previously owned by Shell, they have been operated by Assala since 2017.
A few days before the 30 August coup carried out by General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, Maurel & Prom, a subsidiary of Indonesia's Pertamina oil group, announced that it had reached an agreement with Carlyle to acquire the latter's activities in Gabon. Since then, however, Gabon Oil Company (GOC) has officially exercised its pre-emption rights to prevent the sale from taking place. GOC is now looking for an operator and financial partner for the blocks.
Savannah is all the more interested in the Gabonese blocks for the fact that it faces having nationalised the Chadian assets it bought from ExxonMobil in 2022. Situated in the Doba Basin, these are currently producing 30,000 barrels per day. Savannah is, however, represented in Nigeria, Africa's biggest leading economy, thanks to the gas assets it acquired in the Niger delta from Seven Energy in 2019. In the next few weeks, moreover, it is also expected to complete the purchase of the interests of Malaysia's Petronas group in South Sudan in an operation it announced in 2022.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/01/30/savannah-energy-joins-the-race-for-a-share-of-carlyle-s-oil-assets,110153645-bre
To add further to that Zengas even Shell recent onshore sale to local independents will drag
https://blueprint.ng/coalition-rejects-shells-divestment-threatens-nationwide-protest-2/