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Longshort - ideally scenario would be to close out 2024 with 10,000 Bopd without acquisition. Uquo currently producing 2,000 Bopd, debottlenecked to increase to 5,000 Bopd and scaling Niger to 5,000 Bopd. That would be a great outcome without any acquisition plus increase in gas contracts
Plenty of news outlets now reporting Niger pipeline commencement and oil production commencing in agadem
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20240302-le-pipeline-niger-bénin-officiellement-mis-en-service?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=x&utm_source=shorty
With our correspondent in Cotonou, Jean-Luc Aplogan
It was the Chinese company CNPC, in charge of the project, that informed its partners of the commissioning. The oil that comes out of the Agadem drilling in Niger can therefore now be injected into the pipeline to be transported to the terminal station in Sèmè Kpodji, Benin. Before arriving at the terminal, there are nine tanks to be filled on the route: six in Niger and three in Benin.
According to our interlocutors, this process conditions the first exports. It must be completed before considering the first exports of Nigerian oil. Experts give themselves a 60-day deadline, either at the end of April or early May. On occasion, an official ceremony could be organised.
From the extraction site to the terminal station, the pipeline crosses more than a thousand kilometres in Niger and nearly 700 in Benin. Estimates always remain on a production of 90,000 barrels per day. Benin will receive significant transit duties and tax revenues depending on the quantity exported.
When ECOWAS sanctioned Niger, many were worried about the future of this oil project. The Beninese authorities had said that the pipeline was not concerned. Since February 24, economic sanctions have been lifted.
Approvals or not you can help but be assumed by all the contradictions of South Sudan politics especially to do with the oil sector
Here is key addressing for the ministry of petroleum and joint operating companies to increase oil production
President Salva Kiir has directed the Ministry of Petroleum to increase crude oil production.
The president spoke at the inauguration of the Nile Petroleum Corporation (NilePet)’s new headquarters this morning in Juba.
https://x.com/radiomiraya/status/1763981973016518883?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Noix - seems like both are willing to corporate in oil and transport related matters so clearly that’s outside of scope of other relations.
With first loading targeted for 1 week of May seems like they both need the revenues from oil
Savannah and AK need an aggressive plan for Niger 1.5k Bopd is no longer enough, they should straight target 5,000 Bopd and plan a pathway for 10,000 Bopd. Have some conversation with CNPC to secure some pipeline capacity as well
Https://www.24haubenin.info/?Le-pipeline-Benin-Niger-deja-operationnel#google_vignette
Niger can sell its crude oil on the international market through the port of Sèmè-Kpodji in Benin. The pipeline built for this purpose is already operational.
With a length of nearly 2000 km, including 675 km on Beninese territory, the Benin/Niger pipeline is officially put into service. Production immediately started in Agadem, and the loading of the 1st ship scheduled for May 1, 2024.
Investments made in the construction of the Benin/Niger pipeline, according to a publication by Jeune Afrique, are estimated at $6 billion, including $4 billion to develop the oil fields (in Agadem), and $2.3 billion for construction work. The infrastructure commissioned is expected to produce 200,000 barrels of oil per day in 2026.
Https://visages-du-benin.com/benin-niger-des-signes-dassouplissement-cote-niamey/?amp=1
The Niger-Benin pipeline remains undoubtedly outside the field of tension between the two countries.
In recent months, the Beninese authorities followed by those of ECOWAS have reviewed their positions and decisions against Niger. However, Niamey remains marble for the moment except... on the issue of exporting his oil with the pipeline that crosses the entire Beninese territory to end up at the port of Cotonou.
According to several media, the Niger-Benin pipeline is officially put into service on March 1, 2024 and production immediately started in the city of Agadem. According to the same sources, the oil loading of the 1st ship is scheduled from May 1, 2024 at the Port of Cotonou.
Read: https://visages-du-benin.com/interets-economico-petroliers-entre-le-benin-et-le-niger-quand-loleoduc-se-passe-de-la-fermeture_des_frontieres/
And it is this framework that Niamey will send, from March 3 to 8, 2024, a strong delegation of senior Nigerian customs officials to Cotonou. According to Peace FM, this delegation is composed of:
- Colonel ABDOULAYE ALIDOU MAIGA, Director of Facilitation, Partnership, Economic and Private Regimes, Head of Mission;
- Colonel ADAMOU ABDOU ZAROUMEYE, Director of Regulation and Customs Cooperation;
- Colonel AMADOU ADAMOU SINKA, Director of Audit and Internal Control;
-Mr. KARIMOUNE KORONE MAMOUDOU, Computer Scientist;
- Commander AMADOU HIMA FOURERA, Central Customs Inspector, Auditor at the Niamey Airport Customs Office.
This decision by the current leaders of Niger, which comes a few days after the lifting of ECOWAS sanctions, is a sign of relaxation in response to the outstretched hand of President Patrice TALON and the other countries of the West African Community.
Caution - one of the main reasons why approvals are so difficult in South Sudan is that the ministry of petroleum control and seat was given to opposition as part of the peace agreement in 2012. Oil being the only revenue means that politics will always be played with everything to do with this sector. Clearly Kiir order if not compromised on could cause major chaos and can lead to another civil war in South Sudan.
My take is that the petroleum ministry and the opposition would be in favour of our deal going through and the president and ministry of finance clearly not hence similar to the caltech saga in September. This order is designed to block or put hi defence to our deal.
Even with the caltech saga if you remember the tone of the finance minister when talkigg no about the caltech deal was this deal has been done directly with the president. According to the petroleum agreement act the minister of petroleum approves asset transfers. So I wonder if the the ministry of petroleum was about to grant us approval that caused a panic with the president and he ordered the decree end of Jan to effectively change the powers of minister of petroleum.
Zengas - I believe the incremental extensions are more for AIM to keep tabs on progress and nothing to do with us being close to completion is my take to be fair, it would not be prudent to provide longer extensions when the company has been suspended for long so the shorter extensions provide periodic check ins
Zengas -whatever is going on it’s safe to say approval is still not forthcoming in the next 4 weeks. With a clear discord in ministries clearly our approval wouldn’t feature top of the agenda.
One hopes AK relationships are strong across the South Sudan political spectrum in particular those close to the president and the president himself to get this over the line. AK would have to be smart to grease all the wheels and stay neutral
Https://www.eyeradio.org/president-salva-kiir-inaugurates-nilepet-hqs-in-juba/
Https://x.com/southsudangov/status/1763921608228384815?s=12&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Nigeria trying to stimulate gas sector by isettling historical debts to power generation companies
https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1581559-improved-power-supply-coming-fg-finally-pays-120-million-gas-suppliers-boost-electricity/
SS president to inaugurate nilepet office today
https://m.facebook.com/Nilepetroleumcorporation
https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1763875514098356429?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Longshort - agreed on the Nigeria fx stuff I think naira will see a material appreciation in H2 2024.
Not still convinced we are on track to achieve deal closure in this suspension window so let’s hope for another extension and see the Q1 2024 results in early April to give us an update on the wider business
Zengas - To put it simply pulling out of the deal made more sense earlier, but with every passing month the deal becomes more favourable and tastier in terms of balance of payments so makes less sense.
It all comes down to south sudan government approval, I would imagine that Petronas and savannah want to see it through. I guess the question than depends on hard deadline approvals timeframe, as there comes a point where some sensibility comes into play.........................
Can petronas and savannah continue in stalemate on approvals for another 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 months, that's the question and it's safe to assume by the change of wording that savannah are not coming to the market without an admission document so definitely not an easy conundrum.........................
Longshort - In my mind I had set the 15th March as my expectation, one would expect if we don't get anything by than than the last 2 weeks of March are more about planning for further extensions that's how I tend to view each extension to be fair is if we don't have anything 2 weeks prior to deadline than we are pretty much in the same position in terms of progress.