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Latest RNS a form 8.3 shows Fidelity (FMR/FIL) sold over 13 million shares on 25th at 98p per share. Presumably a private purchase at a premium by an entity that believes a little more could be on the table? I'm a long-term holder of KCOM and given how sick I felt in Nov when price slumped, I'm feeling very grateful for this offer. A few pennies more would be nice, but in the scheme of things I'm wiping my brow with relief.
I checked regulatory news in case I missed something! It would be great if some good news was in the offing but it may be as you said that some people got wrong footed, thinking the price was going to fall even further and kept waiting for that before cutting their losses. Or perhaps an investor or two or more are accumulating. Whatever, I hope the price rise is maintained. Happy New year to all holders.
The interims made clear reading, with no new surprises, and some cautious confidence, and encouraging words from Graham Sutherland. Finncapp revised their TP today to 80 reiterating the stock as a 'buy'... " the broker added that its new target equated to a multiple of 9x 2019 EBITDA, “a reasonable sum of the parts, and still generates a 3.8% dividend yield”. It does look as though Graham Sutherland has seized the day and got legacy problems out in the open. The £32mm writedown of goodwill in NNS is a big number, 60% of the goodwill for that business, but the new goodwill figure of £20mm is, presumably/one hopes, healthy and modest. If I wasn't in deep already I would buy at these levels, as Graham Sutherland does appear to be upfront and transparent, and I think conservative, which is the best strategy for him personally as well as the business.
PS, just to clarify the comment in yesterday's FT:
"Roger Phillips, an analyst with Investec, said the dividend cut was a “gut punch” but necessary to restore a margin of safety after a “kitchen sink” cut to the forecasts."
I agree with all you say. I'm holding and hoping! It was a gut punch as one commentator said. I just hope the actual results will relieve if not please rather than disappoint. Barclays have reiterated equal weight with a sp of 55 while Peel Hunt have reiterated with a sp of 127! Finncap also reiterated. would be great if the two optimists knew something we don't!
Yes, there was an article that referred to the increase in net debt as 'staggering' but needs to be taken in context. From their RNS: "Net debt and cash flow Net debt at 30 September 2017 is £67.8 million (30 September 2016: £45.7 million), representing a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.0x. The increase in net debt compared to the year end position arises as a result of continued investment in our fibre deployment along with a working capital outflow. As in the prior year, much of the working capital movement relates to timing which we expect to unwind in the second half of the year. Underlying working capital continues to be well controlled. Days Sales’ Outstanding (35) is an improvement on the 30 September 2016 position (39) and our Days’ Purchases Outstanding remains consistent with the 30 September 2016 position."
The short answer is no, but I think based on volumes that sellers have predominantly been PIs who have sold due to concerns and jitters. On 28 November Finncapp reiterated it's recommendation on the stock albeit with a slightly lower target price of £1.20 and Peel Hunt reiterated its buy recommendation with a target price of £1.50 and on 29th November Barclays Capital reiterated its equal weight stance with a slightly lower target price of £1.00. And on 4th Dec, less than a week later, Peel Hunt again reiterated its buy recommendation and target of £1.50. And as we know Telios have increased their take to 6% and earlier this year PrimeStone Capital increased their stake to 7%, so these stakes were taken in the full knowledge of what KCOM is doing in terms of restructuring, which gives me some hope and confidence.I also think some other bulletin boards have had negative messages posted to which there was no positive counter arguments, which unnerved some people, me included, but for reasons to do with admin changes I could not have sold or reduced my holding even if I hade wanted to, but not sure I would have anyway. Hindsight is great.
"Teleios Capital Partners LLC has taken a 6.01% stake in London-listed KCOM Group PLC as of Monday" Encouraging news, copy and paste link to London Stock Exchange site for article from Alliance News: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/alliance-news/detail/1512568536065096800.html
I agree and I continue to hold, but some better than expected news would have been good, which can still come of course, and I am encouraged that size can be traded without major price moves...Today's trades appear to show sells of over 7 million versus buys of just 50,000 or so yet the price is up!
Hmm, yes, not great to watch, but there's been some chunky buys today at least, which is helping to underpin at this level.
I agree, safe haven, decent divi etc, the only other thought that crossed my mind was people switching from BT given slump in their share price, but as you point out volumes are low... if someone tried to buy size in this gem the price would rise quickly as has been seen from the relatively small but consistent buys that have pushed it up to the current level. Long may it continue.
I thought the same so I'm surprised share price has come off a little, maybe one step back two forward and a buying opportunity, as the overall volume is tiny.
Thanks, that had passed me by but having now read some of the news reports I see that Three were fined £1.9 million in June for the same thing, and it looks like, given the share price has gone up today, that the market was expecting worse. Or perhaps it would have gone up more otherwise, who knows. Anyway, thanks for posting.
Given KCOM share price can react to very small trades, does seem a tad odd for there to be no significant movement in price, on the other hand it could have been a cross trade, where a big investor sold but simultaneously bought back in order to put into a different account or something, in which case the share price wouldn't be impacted.
I did a double take when I saw that too, could be a glitch or maybe Primestone have bought a chunk more, although I would have expected the price to move to accommodate that many shares.
With Mark Brewer from Finncap...
Different beasts but BT sp has followed similar pattern to KCOM's - BT £3.70 last Oct and now £2.98, Kcom £1.18 and now 92.5p. The plus for KCOM is that company is undergoing transformation/modernisation and Primestone Capital obviously like what they see, as they've increased their stake to over 7%, and for our patience and loyalty we continue to get a very healthy dividend.
Agree, and I appreciate the candour of their RNS's, they put the necessary but damp news first and the encouraging layer. Primestone have recently added a hefty chunk and from what I gather they focus on companies with a solid core business and significant upside potential.
Agree. And good to see that Primestone Capital LLP have just increased their stake to over 7%.
Good to see the price of this gem finally beginning to move, and if anyone missed the interview of 29 March 2017 with Mark Brewer Research Director Life Sciences at Finncap, it is definitely worth a listen. In his view this stock is much undervalued compared to peers and he proffered some eyewatering forecasts, and even his lowest forecast is plenty inspiring. In the interview he makes some excellent points. https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/58da7bfde742d95c634a1f6e/lidco-analyst-interview-finncap