Member Info for tropicalblast

Why so?

Before anyone mentions SP being down, it should be noted the closing price on Thursday 21/8 was reported as 4.18 as based on a UT for the price post 16:30. The bid-offer was 3.90-4.10, so mid 4.00

Let's hope the RNS from Thursday is the start of regular updates that give good reason for an upwards SP movement.

What with recent Li prices Q4 could be a nice period for long term holders.

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/emanuel-proença-b946b36_lithium-market-soars-as-catl-shuts-one-of-activity-7360693440050794499-1FhA/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABy1DXABRsDksKlowm8OvISrcqgYZeuf4Sc

Speaks for itself.

Once all the I's are dotted and t's crossed who knows where this share could go......and yes I do expect many responses saying no-where, downwards, MM manipulation, sold cheap to Portugal friends :-)

Though SP hasn't really moved in a week, any daily % movements have just been based last UT trade price versus each day. I expect the SP to stay where it is until 1) resource updates and 2) DFS

The 3.7 price for Thursday was not a mid price, it was last 'UT" trade price. Friday 3.5 is based on mid price. So comparing apples and pears. If you want to do Mid price to Mid Price, then it's 3.4 Thursday to 3.5 to Friday.

The SP is not down. If anything it's up. See earlier posts on the SP.

Nice little price adjustment upwards 0.1p in late afternoon after the presentation.

I could be wrong, but sure I heard the comment about it being 'weeks' until resource update provided. If so this might have helped SP today.

LOL Osaka......makes me wonder, but many many years ago I remember that for probate purposes the price used for determining the value of an asset was as per the Daily Official List (I remember days it was in printed format with a purple front cover).....Is that still the official source for a share price for probate purposes.

Imagine if this website price was used....that could have serious implications :-)

Got to ignore the price change % reported on here, it's really not a true reflection. The SP closed last night at 3.7 due to a UT trade, the Bid/Offer last night was 3.2-3.6 (so a mid price 3.4). The Bid/Offer today is 3.2-3.6 (so a mid price 3.4). So no change really.

Hi K...I don't think the RNS today suggests that the current %'s held are no 40% for Portugal investors, more that the Fundraise it's self was subscribed by 40% of Portugal investors. Which if you take into account the 2 known large holders + the Portugal BoD members then makes about sense.

I could be wrong. but regardless is still good to get local investors onboard.

On the overall outlook side, based on the numbers in the RNS it looks like SAV are spending about $1.2Mn per month based on going from $14.9mn (30 April) to $12.55mn (27 June). With $6.55 raised, this gives about $19mn or 15/16 months of funding.

Hopefully before next requirements are needed there is much more news to raise the SP, might even have more external funding available.

Have a good day all.

I agree, if the Portugal Government (who ever wins election 3 of 3 in 3 years tonight) is wise they would not take full ownership but instead use the Royalties/Tax/selling new licences/etc to fund into a Wealth Fund just like Norway did in 80's/90's with oil/gas income and not use the money for everyday spending like UK did in the same years. They need a long term view for what could be a very nice big earner.

Happy for price to stay in bargain bucket for now, and not whilst we're in production stage.

Hopefully should mean that existing producers cut back and the expensive mines in planning stage hopefully won't make it to through to production stage. Creating a lovely shortfall in raw material.

Then come late 2027 the price reflects the shortfall that's been created :-)

This is just become the norm for SAV....a modest rise on good news. Normally the rise due to those with a short term strategy wanting to make a few quid buying on the back of the news. Then when there's no followed on increase these short term holders sell up, meaning the price drops back a bit. Hopefully the rest of 2025 will be a flurry of good news meaning that the 'full back' period is short and price does remain closer to true value for longer/a new realistic baseline is set.

But isn't that the thing....there is very little/no real EU sourced Li so is it possible to give a Price for the product? I appreciate that it would be aligned to the global price, but if there's penalties for not using EU Li then does this mean the SAV/MdB Li could attract a higher price as it's Tariff/Penalty free?

But has the current US Administration (I will keep personal thoughts on what I would call them to myself) actually helped SAV out massively.

Hear me out, but if there is some truth in what Starmer said recently that Globalisation being over (maybe not fully over as there is more to Globalisation then just the USA, even if the US don't know that). Then does having items locally made, using local products the 'New Norm' for the next 10-20 years.

We already knew that the EU commission was wanting to have European Li in EU made EV's. Has what's happened over the last week just made this a much more realistic item and moved it from being a 'desire' to being actually what has to happen now?

If we don't want to buy USA Brand EV's (Tesla) and don't want to be a dumping ground for Cheap China made EV's (BYD's, etc) even if these are very good cars, but we want to still move to EV's then surely the EU needs all the ducks lined up nicely, not just the EV's being made in EU, but including local EU sourced Li which we know SAV/MdB is probably one of the very few viable short term options available.

If all the dates mentioned in the previous published presentation and in the update today are met, which would include the DFS being published with the updated resources, etc. Then I would see the SP being in close to, if not in the double digits. So ball-park 75%-100% from where we are today.

To me I would like to see this as a steady rise and the SP reaching these levels on the back of solid ground (no pun intended) and not spikes from one-off news items. Having got the scars from June 2018 I don't want to experience that again :-)

I agree on the resource update, to think how the resources increased in size rapidly back in 2018 before being being paused. At that point I believe we really had only scratched the surface of what was the true picture. x 2 - 3 could still be conservative.

It does look like the SP is coming under pressure now on limited volumes, does this mean that there's very little free stock available.

On the point of being taken out, I don't see this happening this year. I don't see it happening until all the i's are dotted and t's crossed, mainly because for now we're still wanted to be seen as a 'little player' with growing strong local shareholders and also most jobs in all levels (but importantly senior levels) being filled with Local staff. So unless it was to be a Portugal led take over I don't see it being something that would be in the project interest at this time. My that's just my own opinion.

SAV is not the only non-EU company on the 47 list. There's Anglo-American, which is obviously not a small company, plus then some from Canada. End of day, there is a Portugal company "Savannah Lithium Unipessoal, Lda" that is the MdB mine owner/main lead for the development.

This company will pay local taxes, fund local jobs, contribute to EU, etc. even if the ultimate owner is not in EU.

If anything, it means that UK probably don't get to get their hands on all this nice raw material and it has to stay in the EU to be used in EU made batteries/cars. Despite being heavily owned by UK. Probably a win-win for the EU.

You make a great point about the EMH SP. I see that even now EMH would need about 800% increase to reach 5 year/all time high.

Where for SAV it's about 20% increase for 5 Year high and 350% for all time high (those crazy few days in June 2018....I remember them well).

Yes there's been Up's (a few) and Down's (many) along the way, but we do seem to be in a period of solid/stable SP, which though not exciting must give as a great foundation to add value to as more News arrives.

Given the number of shares in PI hands, that have held these for sometime and that there's also a sizeable local share holder register these days. I personally would have thought a Takeover would have to be at a significant premium to be effective.

Even then I would not imagine any offer coming forward until more i's are dotted and t's crossed with the other outstanding items, including the DFS.

Then in addition for a bid to be effective it would probably need board approval. If board was to recommend a bid now, whilst the DFS was in progress, and the DFS showed true value to far exceed current values for a takeover at this point. Then there could be questions asked if the board acted in the best interests of shareholders at the time, possibly even leading to litigation, though if I'm honest I'm not sure how that works.

I personally think we enjoy the latest good news, and look forward to what the rest of 2025 will bring.