Member Info for triumph1

Users of myprotein do not see supplements as discretionary. As an avid gym goer myself, myprotein is by far the best value supplements, far better than PhD ect in terms of price and something I really cannot do without as it is the cheapest source of protein.

For people who use these supplements, they are in the same category as food. In fact, I would expect more gymmers to "downgrade" their supplements from brands like PhD to myprotein because of the price point.

The key here is to not have a position in times like this that give you sleepless nights. Yes, too late for some but stress causes anxiety which can be greatly magnified by things you will usually find trivial in normal times. This downturn is not strictly company specific, although some would argue it would have faired better under different management....but not that much.

But as always, the tide will turn and the bottom will be in before you can react (usually months before the data reflects the tide turning by which time the SP will have already retraced).

Some investors are going to get very rich buying these sorts of companies at this time and simply waiting for the tide to turn. Whether it takes 3 months or 30, eventually the tide will turn and THG will be valued higher than 64p as THG are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Buy small, buy often on the lows and hold. Certainly dont put your life savings here as the anxiety will be too much to handle. Softbank and other funds have suffered catastrophic losses so are forced sellers. Another 10k shares for me today, and will continue to do so on low days until this turns.

You make good points kando. But we are not talking about cancelling the shares which would be absurd, we are talking about shares to be kept in treasury which can be sold at a later date. Such is the deep value here that its hard to see anything outpacing the SP gain once the tide turns on growth stocks.

Share buybacks are not a bad idea when there is deep value to be had and surplus FCF in which the the potential appreciation of the stock will easily outpace any ROCE. Warren buffet frequently dips his toe into his own stock when the stock falls below 1x NAV like he did during 2020.

Just depends how much surplus FCF is sloshing around given the heightened safety nets required for turbulent and unpredictable times like this.

However the argument against would be investors questioning whether they have run out of ideas re growth, capital could be spent elsewhere growing business ect ect. But overall, FCF permitting it might not be a bad idea.

We are still languishing down here with that last trading update.

Upbeat on all fronts. October fy results could be when the penny finally drops here and the market begins to see how cheap this is trading at. Would be nice to have that upbeat trading statement with seeing a reversion back to profit with the added bonus of upward revision of aircraft valuations which would make the mcap look even more silly.

Just a matter of time now

Granted, dividend is nice. But on a downward trajectory which this very much is, the dividend correction in SP almost always outweighs the dividend itself. The last payout being case and point.

Coupled with inflation and the fact that housing market is slowing and will soon be going into reverse therefore higher building costs and lower sale price, its hard to see housebuilders recovering just yet.

Ultimate bottom post divi and before inflation turns south? 1400s my guess.

nice analogy sean. I have said for years that the interests of the big boys vs the interests of us pond scum couldn't be more different. The former only caring about ownership, and the latter only caring about share price which simply doesn't move in relation to the Mcap due to the never ending dilution and funding requirements.

That's why I started trading this years ago. A mugs game holding this unless you are extremely lucky and manage to get a spike. We basically pay to get this company up and running taking all the risk with zero reward, whilst the majors reap the benefits. for now, the mcap is only proportional to the amount of suckers SOLG can muster to take all the risk with zero reward at the next funding round.

Haha if only......

Errr no wiscos. Rising interest rates force people and businesses to stop spending and start saving as credit becomes more expensive and the incentive of interest earned on hard cash becomes a better proposition. This reduces demand, reduces prices and boosts interest earnings (assuming rates are passed on which they are not yet).

This is economics 101!

Once fears are realised and the property market finally begins to reverse, this will really begin to tank.

How much longer will the BoE continue to support the ponzi scheme housing market by raising rates by pitiful amounts with inflation print outs like that? The fed now seem to know the score and grasp the situation, but the BoE think they can get away with miniscule rises? Sooner or later, the BoE will have to break rank with the tories and send interest rates soaring to where they should be. A massive rate overshoot will be required to bring inflation back under control like what happened back in the late 80s. Most seem to think the world will cease to exist if interest rates ever went back to 5%+....but in reality the only thing that would cease to exist is the ponzi scheme housing market and ridiculous debt laden companies without a hope in h3ll chace of ever making a dime. A solid 10-15% housing market correction is nigh and couldn't come a day too soon!

Starting to feel more and more like Maggies days back in the 80s. Lure new buyers into the market until boom. Interest rates had no choice but to rise (peaked at around 15% if memory serves), causing hundreds of thousands to lose their homes.

Yup agreed Porsche. Its all about inflation now, front and centre. Everything else is irrelevant. Until central banks get a grip on inflation, things will remain the same.

But kudos to the fed for having the balls to raise by 0.75% compared to the cowards we have here who thought 0.25% was sufficient to control inflation. Tome to get serious late 80s style on interest rates. But its all about propping up and keeping elevated the biggest ponzi scheme of all....the housing market and saving face for sunaks disasterous free tax scheme for buyers. When those 2 year fixed terms are up....timberrrrr.

Markets are all about overshoot and undershoots anyway. Who actually thought the nasdaq could sustain such ridiculous levels, meme stocks/crypto were actually worth anything, a shoebox in london worth over £500k? Sooner or later central banks will have no other choice but to jack up and overshoot interest rates in order to control inflation.

This should be interesting to hear! Who else does high housing prices benefit then but the wealthy? Homeowners doing well I hear...err not really in real terms! The rungs on the ladder are wider than ever and are in almost the same position as first time buyers if they wanted to upgrade or even move like for like. Only those who use the housing market as an investment benefits....the wealthy elite!

The spinless cowardice of the BoE raises by a pip again. When are they going stop artificially propping up the catastrophic mess that is the housing market?? Trust me, when those 2 year fixed rates end on all of those lemmings who jumped on suniks bandwagon of no stampduty and practically were spoonfed leveraged capital, then siht will hit the fan. Tick tock!

Back to the late 80s/early90s baby yeah!

With the aggressive interest rate rise. Time to get serious about this now! Let's see if the spineless cowards in the BoE have the balls to follow suit.

Fcuk the housing market and the fools who got suckered into paying pathetic prices for a property using ridiculous amounts of leverage which partly got us into this mess. High time for the property market to now feel the burn! High property prices benefit no one but the super rich elite!

Yup. FED are loving the red hot inflation as it essentially makes it easier for them to buy back the massive amount of QE as money value goes down. If things turn to a recession though, jobs market is hurt and no tax revenues....hello massive debt yields and crippling debt servicing. I wonder who would pay for that...hmm difficult lol. And you can be sure they haven't insured against rising interest rates just like the BoE didnt. I guess they are using nature as a hedge though in the form of inflation....net zero really which is why interest rates remain stupidly low. God forbid a 50 bps interest rate rise that may wobble the pathetically high and 100% rigged housing market to benefit the top 0.1%.

As for the crypto market, and many here shouting about inflation hedges....the market has spoken!

Anyhoo, the wheels have well and truly come off on the crypto wagon. Those ridiculously leveraged Co's such as argo buying up the world's transistors and having insanely high AISC will capitulate soon. Tick tock.

Debt pile going down (although still high), revenue going up (although still a long way to go), profits improving (still making a loss, but that should flip to a profit soon). The key thing is that things are definitely improving on all fronts. NAV of around $2.20 which should only go up as we continue to come out of covid. Also Japan opening to tourists should certainly help here.

AVAP is still far below the radar, but am convinced that eventually value will out as its a well run ship with a decent track record pre covid. I'm a buyer at these levels and will hold for another couple of years at least.

Which is around the £2.50 mark. Despite me nearly 3 bagging if there is a bid at this level, this still significantly undervalues the business looking ahead and would be dissapointed if it went this cheap and personally i would be voting against!

As things are today, £3 is fair value, or around £3.5bn. Looking ahead a couple of years, £4 to £5 could easily be achieved. Not bothered what happens in the interim regarding offers and counteroffers....just enjoy the ride up.

I agree how the macro situation stands today, a bid north of £3 is unlikely to happen. I happen to think around £2.8 - £3.2 is fair value as of today, but again I agree that PE won't want to offer this today.

In that case, MM will most likely contine to reject bids and as the bids get higher, so will the SP and should continue to see step changes as bids develop. Fast forward 18 - 24 months, this could be a very different animal once inflation comes crashing back down to earth (and it will with a bang!). North of £3 once growth is reignited and bottlenecks recede is very much a possibility.

I wouldn't be surprised to see bids come in circa £2 in the coming weeks....but will probably stall around that level.

That trade didn't age well at all!

I knew the offer would be between 150 p to 200p. Very happy MM rejected offer, and happy for a bidding war to commence and keep seeing step changes in the SP.

As things stand, inflation whitholding, 2.8 to 3.2 would be a fair offer. Anything less should and will be rejected

Most of my holdings were got back in the 80s when the SP flatlined, so am well up here and chuffed others managed to smash their averages down to breakeven today. SHs here have been through thick and thin, an onslaught of trolls and shorts alike. Let's hope we can all be handsomely rewarded here.

I personally will not sell a dime as I'm in it for the inflation turnaround....as they say what goes up, must come down. £2+ really isn't silly money for this company, and easily achievable in double time.

Let's hope asos and boohoo do the same in my cyclical portfolio.