Member Info for triumph1

Don't forget to stamp your duster express loyalty card on the way out.

I don't know why this company doesn't get into selling dust. They have a skilled team in finding that.

So Halifax says up, nationwide says down.

rightmove, zooplas and all estate agents opinions should of of course be completely disregarded as their very existence relies on a good property market, so tone will be optimistic and will talk up the market even if a gigantic asteroid was hurtling towards earth.

Only the ONS know the real story re houseprices. But data is 3 months backwards.

Fascinating day for first republic. Rollercoaster ride.

Syndicate of banks help first republic bank by depositing $30bn in unsecured deposits. This show of support coupled with SNB actions re CS should help bring down market temperatures.

Same here. Couldn't resist. Took out a couple of grands worth at 139.4. if it drops more then so be it.

Key is to buy in small tranches.

Yeah. These people can argue a banana is an orange to suit their agenda, no matter how absurd they make themselves sound. Reason or argument is futile with such people, and is best not to dignify with a response. I hope for this individuals sake that he has an agenda or links to russia. Even then, I seriously doubt the most ardent russian troll truly believes what bile they are paid to spit out.

If this poster actually has no links to russia...then god help them. Or perhaps move to russia? Nobody suggests the west is perfect. But boy is it better than Russia & Co. That is of course unless you are happy living in a hut and just go with the flow and whims of your dictator whenever they feel like a murderous rampage.

Best to just smile and wave at these people.

I'm not the only one that finds the timing of their reported financial reporting discrepancies very suspicious.

They really couldn't have timed that release any better to cause maximum panic on an already wobbly market.

If CS do topple, then of course all bets are off. The series of events that will follow are hard to predict, but they won't be pretty. Alas, we need to go through many stages to get that point.

Me and some colleagues because we are geeks used to categorise banks like nasa categorise meteors called a torino scale. 0 means no probability of impact, and 10 is certain impact from a meteor that will cause worldwide devastation. Main variables are size and probability of impact. Banks collapsing and meteors....some comparisons can be drawn in terms of devastation that can be caused.

Credit suisse is a solid 5.

The rodeo show has landed in London by the looks of barclays, lgen and others that are normally perceived best in their class. (I use the word best loosely).

Then again, this whole episode is not even a week old....even though a day can feel like a year in times like this. You are right in saying truths need to surface fast....especially the poorly timed, on cue groans from the long time elephant in the room that is CS.

It's a regulatory issue saihaj. Not so much lack of confidence. Saudi national bank cite regulatory reasons.

Saudi national bank would see no benefit watching credit suisse collapse, quite on the contrary. And for that matter...none of us would want to see credit suisse fail.

It's not just CS suspension. It's a whole load of other EU banks that have had stocks sell off heavily. EU circuit breakers are different to ours.

You can always rely on CS to rear It's years old ugly head at the worst possible times and bring it's problems to the table and magnifying the short term panic.

But I still don't believe the panic is of magnitude or has any significant logic behind it to be the nail that sends CS to bank heaven (or hell). CS will surely go to hell.

But...I still fail to see how SVB could cause the final downfall of credit suisse, or more the straw that broke the camels back. I just don't see this particular straw having enough mass. Even if I had money in there now...I wouldn't feel the need to pull it fast. SVB clients were mainly loss making startups who were burning through cash rapidly. The rate of cash burn of these startups given the environment now is what caused SVB to run low on liquidity. It started as a bank run nobody was aware about. Only when SVB attempted to raise funds through equity and selling off their fixed income portfolio did everyone lose their mind and panic, as they then grasped the extent of the issue. The case study (SVB) parameters are simply too narrow to be contagious on a scale. The only way this can go further is if a true state of panic were to happen and everyone decided it were best to just keep their money stuffed under the matress. But that makes no sense. Major banks have already seen very large inflows this week.

Issues are no stranger to credit suisse, and I still fail to see contagion here in the form of a bank run at credit suisse. Still a storm in a tea cup, much ado about nothing ect ect.....IMO of course.

Credit suisse announced today that they found some "material weaknesses" in their financial reporting process for 2022 and 2021. Also their main investor, Saudi national bank won't stump up more financial assistance.

Seems to be causing the panic today. Funny thing is....US banks are not nearly as much down pre market as what we are experiencing here. If any bank was going to cause us pain here, it would be credit suisse or DB.

It's also funny how these libertarian silicon Valley CEOs who lamented the government for bailing out the banks are now themselves asking to be bailed out. I guess it's not so nice for them when it's their interests and money on the line. Whats the term....practice what you preach?

And now pleading with the government to not raise interest rates haha. The hypocrisy stinks. I say the world was overfilled with junk that labelled themselves "tech companies". Im sure the world will continue to revolve in the absence of another crapie game or another loss making fast food delivery. This is nature's way of cleaning out the closit.

Who picked themselves a bargain over in the US yesterday? Crazy first hour.

First republic bank and charles schwab. First one not for the faint hearted, but the rewards could be huge if a fully fledged bank run doesnt occur (already starting to peter out), and Charles schwab....very odd why that dived so much. Their primary business is not even banking. All bank stocks are a steal. Especially some regionals in USA.

First republic* dont know why I keep calling it first national.

And of course, being in the age of social media and misinformation, this is adding fuel to the fire big time. FNB average individual account balances are below $200K anyway. Deposits are insured upto $250k, so it literally makes no sense to withdraw if you hold less than 250k.

But in panic mode, rationality of course goes out of the window. You see a big queue at the bank...you are going to join it. Just like the petrol fiasco and the idiots buying up toilet roll a year back? How that started is still a mystery to me.

Beautiful. Near 5% discount. I'll have some of those thankyou very much.

I'll have a play with fist national Bank today. On the surface, the bank finances are actually not bad at all. Their makeup is completely different to SVB.

But this is what panic does....perfectly good banks can succumb to panic in the form of a massive Bank run. Nethertheless, if this little episode subdues, first national Bank looks to be an absolute steal right now

Of course, im not talking about a relatively small amount like 85k. I'm talking about sums vastly over govt protection that runs into millions/tens of millions (most of SVB corporate clients and a lot of individual clients). Who would let $10m sit in an account when news is released ( from a credible source) that the bank has to sell assets at a loss to cover withdrawal requests? Sure, you know that if everyone panics then the bank is doomed, but you would immediately withdraw funds. There is no doubt about it

Twitter-lead bank run....I like that. But you can't take away the fact that SVB caused this and their mismanagement are solely to blame, and I dont for one second blame the participants of the bank run. In this industry, the slightest hint of trouble looming (and there was the biggest hint possible in the form of selling underperforming assets at a loss to cover withdrawal demands), it will cause twitchiness and people to draw deposits "just in case". You would do it, as would I! As one put it, there's no risk pulling a deposit just in case and redepositing once all is fine, but there's all the risk in the world if you leave it put.

Eventually, SVB would have found some sort of liquidity from somewhere to plug this lack of cash, but then again once they are at the point of having no cash, however they attempt to raise funds will send alarm bells ringing, and a bank run at lightning speed will ensue. A more interesting interesting question is...If social media didn't exist, or this happened back in the 90s, would this have happened? I suspect no. But that doesn't mean the bank was "unlucky" as we are not in the 90s, and they cucked up big time. No bank should ever be in the position to not be able to meet short term deposit outflow obligations. How on earth did they pass stress testing for this to happen? How were they allowed to keep such low yielding assets whose value was rapidly deteriorating on the balance sheet? So many questions need answering as they were not a tiny outfit.

They cant just dump 200bn of mbs and bonds overnight as that could tank the market and cause waves. Thats predominantly why the us federal government stepped in; for an orderly wind down of these assets as to not cause any reverberations as SVB could no longer contain the runaway bank run and panic.

But on the macro scale, thats as far as this will go. Theres simply no way mainstream banks will face this problem. Banks that are classified crucial for a functioning society are under such tight restrictions that barring a mass panic of epic proportions, they simply can't run out of cash and be forced to firesell underperformimg assets. If (very very very very unlikely) a bank such as JPMorgan or hsbc reported this issue....it would be 2008 on steroids and we wouldnt be talking here, we would be desperatlely pulling deposits from every account we own. Fortunately, the US govt will fence in SVB, or at the very least stop the travel upwards. But with many fintech banks and small startups in the financial sector, who knows how many of these could have similar issues where they have blown all deposits on low yielding assets, with no new inflows to diversify and increase PF yield. When you deposit money with these companies, unless they are backed by FSCS you put your money in the hands of the CEO and their competence. But this will certainly bring in new levels of scrutiny for this sector, despite govt lobbying for red tape to be cut to bring in innovation to this sector. But this incident once again highlights the massive risks involved if you let your guard down.

There will be repercussions for companies/individuals who have huge sums tied up here however...and we will find out how deep of a hole SVB put themselves in. I expect many will be forced to take a haircut, perhaps even a buzz cut.

A lesson out of all of this. Dont put all your eggs in one basket. Those fortunate enough to have over £85k in cash deposits....diversify. This way, your deposits are backed by government and no matter what happens...you get your cash back.

As for companies who had millions tied up in this bank who say they can't make payroll....they should find a new CFO. Unacceptable risk to not diversify deposits and have contingency accounts for such an event.