Member Info for triumph1

Property hedge against Inflation? I beg to differ. You fail to take into account the most vital variable in the equation....first time buyers!

They are the primary engine of houseprice growth. The last couple of weeks events would have crushed and stomped on new market entrants, which would have caused a cliff edge style drop in demand. This is all because of inflation and the need to rise interest rates, exacerbated by stupid govt policies. Because of the nature of how our houseprice growth is driven by first time buyers, house prices can never be a hedge against Inflation.

This will take a few months to be fully reflected in house prices and housebuilder balance sheets/forward statements. Tbh I think it is about time house prices came back down to earth. Us homeowners have done well enough over the past 15 years, and if prices fall back in line to pre covid levels like stocks have, I would still be happy. As for new entrants suckered into extreme low rates and sky high prices....its going to be painful; very painful. Late 80s all over again. I say new entrants, but really those who have brought within the last decade who have known nothing but rock bottom rates.

However as jamrock correctly states, its all a cycle. Soon as inflation passes (and it will because obviously price increases cannot maintain 10% forever), then the government will drop the rates back low simply because they have to, especially with the ultra agressive trussnomics. Interest rates were kept too low for too long, and now have been effectively rebased. If the BoE put rates back to historical mean of c.5% for a long period of time, houseprices would tank 30-40% and the entire system would no doubt collapse.

I am not voting labour on a whim. I am voting labour to vent my anger at the tories and what they have achieved, or lack of, over the past decade and a bit. That mini budget was the last straw for many including myself; unfunded tax cuts for the very richest guised as helping growth is beyond the pale and a step too far.

The chancellor making the excuse of stress caused due to the queens death for one of the single biggest chancellor ****ups in living history is quite hilarious, but then again tragic and shows the calibre of the people now running the country. Sunak would have made a much better PM; at least he had a grasp of the dire situation this country faces.

And you must live on cloud 9 if you think public spending grew in the cameron years. Public sector spend as a percentage of GDP was down every single year from 2010 to 2018, and only picked up again once bojo entered! Education spending was slashed, NHS slashed, Welfare slashed! If memory serves, Labour would have protected these services, but of course at the expense of others like defence, transport ect who would have faced savage cuts. However education and health are the most valuable public services and should be the last on the chopping block, not the first! This should be protected at all costs.

We also cannot keep blaming Blair/Brown for the problems we face today. That excuse has gotten very old now and really doesn't wash anymore given the time that has elapsed since! Particularly the self inflicted issue of brexit caused solely by Cameron's idiotic gamble!

haha. I remember writing my masters dissertation about 15 years ago outlining then our desperate need for nuclear power for the next 50 years to bridge our energy needs whilst transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy. Everyone high up knew then that nuclear power was desperately needed to secure energy needs, but the UK have done literally nothing regarding building more plants, mainly citing costs. But they are more than happy to splash £150bn on the energy cap, which could have built several power plants!

Then came the austerity period. This would have been the opportune time to reignite growth truss style, but no! Cameron and Osborne saw it prudent to massively cut public spending...and for what? Penny shrift, pound stupid! Under the tories, this country has become economically and morally bankrupt, our public services are crumbling, we have diminished on the international stage and the desperation of truss & Co shows how out of ideas they really are.

Truss policies are simply in the wrong era. We needed them back in 2013, not now when we are in a midst of an inflation crisis. I don't like labour, but we literally need a change just to freshen things up and wake the complacent Tories up. We will get it come next election, because many including myself will be voting labour for the first time.

If i were at the helm, nuclear power would be national priority number 1. For someone to spout so much about growth, how does blackouts and lack of energy feed into her growth plans? Will we build giant hampster wheels for the poor and those wishing to continue to claim benefits to run inside and power the country like the old wheels used to power cotton mills back in the 18th century? With talk of candles, it feels like UK is heading back to that era!

Truss is another wannabe thatcher, but unfortunately for her she lacks the capacity thatcher had.

Inflation and growth are not not the best bed partners. You have to deal with these one at a time. Thatcher would have never done unfunded tax cuts given the current environment and would be rolling in her grave right now.

Deal with inflation first! Then start with growth policies.

There will be a lot of cash on the sidelines looking in on the markets. At the first hint of inflation peaking, if you blink then you will be left behind as everything relates, just like what happened on that faitful day when the covid vaccination was announced.

One for the brave now. A comprehensive and complete wipeout of SH equity.

Its a tough choice for growth companies to make. Guise the losses as an "investment" in maintaining growth and attempting to grab and retain new customers and market share with lower prices, or let growth fade and lose hard earned and expensive market share in exchange for increasing goods to floating costs and reducing losses.

Fortunately for THG, they have a decent cash buffer so can afford to keep prices down for the foreseeable, and acquire market share for those who simply cant afford this option. Of course, this model is unsustainable and current losses are only sustainable for a couple of years max before they have to revert to the strategy of raising prices, thus losing market share to stronger competitors. However if things do turn and inflation fades, this will rocket, will quickly become cashflow positive, losses will rapidly turn to profit with the new customers acquired and the "investment" will pay off massively, and then some.

Its all or nothing here. I'm in for a small amount, but certainly wouldn't put the kitchen sink in. The next 12 months will be interesting to say the least.

come on steve. Financial status of buyers? No nobel prize for guessing that statistically, it is in a much more precarious position than it was just 3 months back. In fact, it is deteriorating rapidly on a daily basis.

Banks are slashing valuations by tens of thousands. You wont sound cheeky if you offer 10% or more below asking price, especially on london property.

Of course, all technically speaking is speculation as we don't have solid data that reflects the past months events. No doubt PSN can weather the storm, but how low will it go in 2023 which will undoubtedly be a gruelling year for the property market unless inflation suddenly disappears. The high yield also concerns me greatly at PSN considering the effect this will have on the SP if it is cut. It is near double the closest rival. I would be far more inclined to buy with a safer yield that provides greater cover than one that looks very dodgy that could eat into cash on balance sheet to maintain.

Look at the hissyfit the market threw when it finally realised that interest rates "may" hit 5%+.

There is no "may" in the equation. It is not an if, but when. Inflation is not going to come down with this government! What will the BoE achieve in the long run buying up gilts other than giving traders the chance to get their heads straight and ease them into the reality of a high rate environment? Nothing but further bloated coffers filled with more overpriced debt! They merely buy weeks only for the inevitable.

Supply and demand is king you say? So what happens when demand dries up instantly in the first time buyer market (the engine of the market) and households facing 50%+ increase in mortgages? I don't think buying their next house or moving will be on their minds. Demand is on the verge of tanking, houseprices will follow and lack of housing supply won't matter the tiniest bit.

It is so blaringly obvious that house prices simply have to drop to balance the equation of higher interest rates and cost of living crisis.

Something has to give here. Who will blink first, the govt or the BoE?

My money is on kwarteng reversing the mentalist scrapping of top rate tax next week and peddling back on further tax cuts despite him doubling down on his rhetoric. He will be lobbied and forced into submission as this is the only way to calm the markets.

I really hope other politicians, banks and the BoE give him an easy off ramp though. We all know how narcissistic politicians can be, and these tories would rather see the country burn than to lose face.

The political damage has been done however, and kwarteng will always be known as the guy who ruined the economy. Not a politically smart move for a very smart man on paper.

The conservatives are entirely spent governing this country. Morally and now economically, which was their strong point. Labour are having a field day with this

Indeed youngengineer! Try telling those who potentially face their mortgage doubling overnight that this is all just a bad dream; a figment of the media's imagination.

High interest rates will come crashing through everyone's front door. And I feel for these homeowners who were scammed by the government and lulled into a false sense of security by buying at the highest price and the lowest interest rates. The double edged sword of high interest rates and negative equity will prove fatal for many.

What a set of results! Back in black, NAV sitting at a huge £2.68. Also note, the FX rate used to calculate this was based on June 30 gbp to usd FX of 1.22! It is somewhere closer to £3 NAV right now.

As things stand, we have a p/e of around 4 (earnings will only get better), a p/b of 0.33 and massively reduced debt pre covid.

This has to be one of the best bets on the markets at the moment. If it were not for the rubbish markets, we would surely be much higher already

Better the BoE using the coffers to spend on long dated gilts that will actually help than letting that prat give away billions to the rich, actively promoting inequality and sending the markets into a tailspin. Spend the money before the tories can get their hands on it.

Finally the BoE have the balls to stand upto the govt and are beginning to do something about this utter mess. This is only a very temporary fix however, and higher interest rates will still be needed.

Utter joke that the BoE and govt are so out of sync. We are a laughing stock among developed economies.

BoE spending the cash and splashing out on long dated gilts before the tories can give it away to the rich?

Buying back debt is a better use of money than tax cuts, but why were they forced to take such drastic action. Just shows the dysfunction up the top at the moment. BoE and govt are not in sync.

A very temporary patch job however. But at least the BoE beginning to do something about this tory governments. Could settle frayed nerves here.

Wow, what an endorsement of the budget by the IMF and Moodys. That's pretty big news!

Then again, a 10 year old could have told you that cutting the top rate tax from 45% to 40% is sheer lunacy, completely unnecessary and will do nothing but exacorbate the crisis we are in and go down like a lead balloon with the markets. This top rate needs to be reinstated immediately.

One way or another HPs are going down! I really don't know what all the fuss is about letting them drop 10%? Look at how they have performed over the last year alone.

Sure there will be casualties, but there always is! There will be far less casualties than this insane budget.

Boy do we need sunaks economic nuance now.

AVAP making all the right noises. The fact that revenue is in USD should help lift the SP significantly too.

Have to agree paddyboy, and the government's efforts to keep houseprises high has, quite expectedly, backfired. Barely a day into the new budget and it already looks like a dismal failure. They have accelerated the housing market decline as the BoE really have little choice but to jump rates higher to prevent a fully fledged currency crisis. The BoE are plating a game of tug of war with the government now, and if they fail to act this week, then the pound will be less than the dollar.

David, UK domestic consumer demand has never been enough to reach critical mass in UK to self sustain, and MMT is purely theoretical in nature and overlooks one key point...credibility and belief.....of which there is none in these tax cuts. And I'm sure foreign UK debt holders will have something to say about that too. UK is not exactly a hermit kingdom.

We are at a cusp of a currency crisis now. Bets are on that the BoE are forced to intervene and hold a meeting next week to jack up rates immediately to steady the pound. 50bps next week to steady followed by a 100bps in November will then start to turn the tide on inflation. But boy will those tax cuts be expensive, and for what? To save the housing market? Good luck to those wanting to jump on this current market once rates for a mortgage hit 7%, and there is only so much you can pass onto the tenant before the whole thing collapses. Tenants have rights here, and tenant defaults are rising. The issue is the lag between getting the old tenant out and a new tenant in upon tenant default! Doesn't matter about demand or another persons willingness to pay the rent if you cant get someone who refuses to pay out, you can't just throw an old tenant on the street, and court backlog is huge. 9 months of no rent equals forced seller! The rental market is a ticking timebomb and the whole thing will implode.

The housing market is well overdue a correction! This government is throwing the kitchen sink at keeping them artificially high as of course most homeowners would be tory voters. However it is obvious that no matter what they do, the housing market is going to correct one way or another. I havent seen yet an object or asset that can defy gravity.

Looks like the government and central bank have very different ideas how to deal with the current economy, and you get the sense that the government has just slapped the BoE in the face with today's announcement.

When has it ever been a good idea to give people more money during a period of spiralling inflation? I get the differing roles of the two institutions, I.e. BoE job is to dampen inflation and the government job is to promote growth, but the fact that both are at loggerheads does not bode well for us at all.

Was this a masterstroke from trussnomics, or an absolute disaster where interest rates will have to be jacked up into double digits in order to prevent a looming currency crisis and runaway inflation? History is not on their side

So the government have elected to spend their way out of this hole. Well let's just say history is not on their side for this one.

Cutting SDLT is a good idea but at the wrong time. You also have to question how this will help the property market given these cuts are not temporary, so no time pressure in terms of rushing to completion, and the fact that interest rates are going to continue climbing therefore still making mortgage payments unaffordable at this time.

ITV's response was cringey. No apology to the public (right or wrong, given the mood of the public they had to sound a bit sympathetic and apologetic).

Instead, they come out all guns blazing and call the members of the public "trolls" for voicing their opinion on the matter? What brainiac thought calling mourning public trolls was a good idea? Well now there are 65k trolls and rapidly growing.

This is PR 101. Whether right or wrong, profusely apologise! Whoever commissioned their response needs the axe! Options to contain this situation are evaporating fast.

This is not going away. SHs will want a full explanation of how this has happened.