Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
You are right SB. They avoided consolidating their losses with debt through the recent fundraise. Which will go on if they go it alone. As you and I have both observed there are mixed messages about whether they want a sale or whether they intend to sell the product themselves. Not their core skills so that's why I think they want to sell. Being deliberately ambiguous. Bit obvious to those interested parties but not without merit as a bargaining chip for a small company positioning themselves to engaging with pharma giants.
I won't reference 'debt' again. I meant they're spending more than they're making. Lazy. Apologies.
I won't cry if they get £1.00. Neither will new bond holders? Unless some of them have previously invested, as you have, at much higher levels.
But realistically they should get £300 million. A big pharma with a high industry profile, manufacturing core skills or good outsourcing relationships will make a billion a year from the US alone. Add to this additional sales from ckd drugs already worth tens of millions to both AZN and TF and it's a valuable investment.
It's important to the US health insurance industry to get this right too. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed.
For us but not for the States. I can see Renx getting a lift on Monday without our day traders causing a bit of a drag.
Buddhabob, broker says £2.00. Ordinarily I'd say could go for £3.50. It's a finished and FDA approved product. If it gets LCD for which all the signals are very good, big pharma will make the most of first mover advantage. It will be worth billions and increase sales of their ckd drugs. But they're vulnerable because of the debt they have incurred in getting to this point as a small company. So they have some room to manoeuvre but not much. They will take £2.00 I think. Maybe a bit less.
It's going up in anticipation of lcd approval including Medicare and the whole US insurance industry. Imagine what will happen when it's approved. Market of 10 million at risk of chronic kidney disease, where the insurance industry have a vested interest in getting those at risk tested, because acute kidney disease is way more expensive and usually ends someone's working life if they can't get a kidney donor. 950 dollars per test is the approved price already agreed. FDA approved. US government contracting on behalf of public services and the US Veteran's already buying. LCD coverage is the last hurdle to first out of the box, comprehensive market penetration. Hold for a few months and you'll be well happy.
The price suggests a buy. Not showing in the tally so far.
Hope not. They have plenty of money to take them through to lcd coverage for the US health insurance industry. Expected coverage for 10 million people at 950 dollars a time. Might just be iis getting in, in expectation of a decision this month. Consultation ended March 23rd.
I've been investing in bio-meds for years. They have to clear all the ŕegulatory hurdles before they get sales. Sometimes new drugs for big markets get bought out at phase 3, rarely at phase 2. Big pharma are always happy for the little guys to take all the risk. And market makers/bond holders etc always make sure it's a bumpy ride for us too.
Diagnostics are no easier. They want a finished product with full endorsements. We're nearly there.
Be mad to sell now. It will multi-bag as soon as the LCD recommendation comes in. It's listed on Nasdaq. If it happens after hour trading hours it could be £1 the next morning.
SB, they can't sell much without the LCD. The rest is just skimming the edge of this market. LCD will set off the real penetration. Bit of a stand off going on. Bond holders behaviour is short termist. They don't care because they still have a hefty investment left anyway.
Blimey. £2 after averaging down. Maybe peaked too early there mate.
We're involved in a speculative activity. Everything is risky. I have made the averaging down tactic work for me. As SB has clearly explained the bond holders are converting their bonds by the looks of it. They're making profit right down to 20p. Not many buyers because RENX approach in the last significant RNS to position themselves as being prepared to go it alone is a mixed signal when they have also announced a bidder. I suspect that the bidder has put in an offer that Renx are not inclined to accept.
They are assuming that the talk of going it alone gives them more time for the enormity of the opportunity to kick in once they get recommended. They might get a couple of big orders straight off. But looks like a bit of a bluff to me. They don't have the scale to go large right now anyway. They're just trying to increase their bargaining power. Big pharma will be the ones who cash in. And any of us who are in at a low price like this obviously.
We'll get an update when the US insurance industry report on their decision. The consultation ended in the third week of March. We may have weeks to wait. We may have days. The current sp will soon be irrelevant. Not sure you'll get a great return from a £2 entry SB. I would take the opportunity to average down if I were you. The broker says it will go for £2.00. That's my assumption. Could be £1.50. They're vulnerable with their debt. Potential buyers will be quite aware of that. On the other hand potential buyers will be aware that there will be competition. Two of the biggest pharma companies in the world are in the space for chronic kidney disease. The insurance industry will back this and then you have a market of about 10million people in the US who will benefit from the early intervention available through this test. Ckd can be managed. Acute kidney disease is a personal tragedy that nobody wants. I expect it to be aggressively marketed by the insurance industry themselves. They don't want to endure the much more expensive consequences of acute kidney disease- dialysis, kidney replacements, kidney removal, early mortality when they don't have to. It's a lifesaver and it will help extend good quality of life for millions.
We're on the up.😊
They put out a trading update on 2nd May last year. If we get another this year after the last contract win announced in the RNS that should show a massive turaround from the previous profit warning, and get the sp up significantly to reflect the recovery.
Already raised at that price. 2 for 1 in the US. Different class of shares. But the same value taking the exchange rate into account. It's not a new document.
Have Ping picked the FPSO? The third license is also due. The next 2 partnerships have ORCA on 50% of the value.
Reported your post Steel. See that it's still here. Not really what you want to see over your breakfast. It's moving up. You can take a look on Google Finance. We'll finish blue I reckon. I'm guessing 18p by the end of the week. Great RNS. They're getting a run of government contracts. Over £19 million in this one. Looks like they're firmly embedded on the UK government commissioning radar for new IT. Several departments have got them in now.
Me too. It's been battered down but this contract win is the fourth government contract now and the largest by some way. Looks like they've really got their foot in the door with public sector IT.
Gross profit is £6million. Where do you get £300k profit from CS?
G8 find Kaeren. Thx for sharing. UKEF funding- looks like a tick then. Super duper.
On politics Xenor, the point I was making is investors should have no worries about a Labour government. And yes, imo this Labour team will be serious about boosting growth. It's going to be in their manifesto- so a massive priority. Clearly a big difference with the Tories I'm afraid. Growth has been crap. Granted there was a pandemic but every other major economy has recovered much faster than us. And I have had a massive dent in my pension because of Truss as has everyone else who has any private pensions, discounting SIPPs. Unlikely SIPP holders will have been immune to the carnage from Truss.
Yep. Truss knocked about £12k off my pensions in one swift move, the mad so and so. A sensible Labour government committed to growth to spread wealth, what's the problem? I will take it over a bunch of corrupt and ridiculous old boys network (and that includes women too- no names mentioned Baroness Mone).
I'm entirely unsurprised to see Labour bigging up British industry. As they should be.
Looking forward to seeing IM in those court proceedings. GLA.