RE: Proposal to separate the price of Nickel Sulfate with class 2 Nickel?11 Apr 2021 13:54
Amur_isagogo
Anybody who has actually been here for 12 years will know my view which has been consistent. Improved grades and an improved nickel price have always been the issues for me. Well grades aren't going to improve much on what we currently have so it’s all now down to the price of nickel and in my opinion that still has some way to go before Amur will be able to go it alone. But let’s face it Amur will never develop this mine themselves. The options are a JV or an outright sale. The JV option is unlikely in my opinion so it’s down to an outright sale. How do you get a decent price out of a potential buyer? You have to have an alternative, either another buyer or the option to go it alone. It’s a bit like Game Theory you have to be able to execute the bluff if your bluff is called.
Don't forget, the commodity sector is cyclical. When you invested 12 years ago (2009) the price of nickel was on a roller coaster ride. In that time it peaked at $28,000/tonne and then cratered at below $8,000/tonne. Has Amur been viable during that whole cycle? No. Did you sell at any point in that cycle? It seems not. You've held for better days. I held assuming that further drilling would produce the grades that would make Amur viable. Grades have improved but not to the extent hoped for. It’s now all down to the price of nickel. I'm still here because I believe that nickel will eventually hit a level that will make the "go it alone" option possible. That's the point when it might be possible to squeeze a reasonable price from a potential buyer.
You say "We have all made the gamble..." then go onto to state
".....what I don’t get is someone constantly posting ambiguous, detailed and awkward to follow fluff under a pretence that he is waiting for the right signals....."
That in many respect sums up the difference. You are gambling on something you don't fully understand. RL, on the other hand, isn't.
You just need to accept that some people have a much better understanding than you, are happy to post detailed research and are generous enough to freely give their time and research. Just because you wouldn’t give as freely says more about you than it does anything else. You can’t understand RL’s motivation because you don’t have the same generosity of spirit. You’re just two different types of people
Wanting a happy clappy board where only positives are allowed would devalue this forum to the extent that it would render it useless. I think RL’s contribution is invaluable and I don’t, as you’ve decided, think it negative. On the contrary it helps me to determine whether the rewards associated with investing more here are outweighed by the risks.
TDT
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