Member Info for TrickyDicky2

"Breakout this week??"

Unlikely??

TDT

Hazbeen

Have you given much thought to the below extract from the link you posted?

"However, Hoffman said he hopes that Tsingshan’s plans work, as every U$1,000 increase in the nickel price adds about US80¢ per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to the cost of an EV."

“If prices increased by US$10,000-US$15,000 per tonne, you’re looking at about a 20-30% increase in the cost of the battery,” he explained."

My understanding is the battery pack (not the batteries themselves) in an EV accounts for 35% to 40% of the overall cost of the car. Take a Tesla Model 3 at $50,000 and at the upper end that means the battery pack will cost $20,000. The battery pack in a Model 3, depending on the configuration, will contain approximately 70kg. of nickel. Nickel is currently around $7.75/kg which means the cost of the nickel in the battery is $542.50¢. If the price of nickel goes up by a further $10,000/tonne or even $15,000 it will add between $320 and $480 onto the cost of the nickel in the battery pack. That's 1.6% to 2.4% onto the cost of the battery pack or 0.64% to 0.96% onto the cost of a $50,000 car.

Any idea where they get the 20% to 30% from?

TDT

If Amur were to hit 25p I'd be able to afford a Tesla for myself and one each for the missus and two kids. I don't see that happening and time soon although one can dream.

TDT

EVs are still very much in the nascent phase of their development/evolution. There's still a long way to go before they reach their optimum.

TDT

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/gold-digger-instos-pour-back-into-gold-as-bitcoin-loses-spark/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Closing%20Bell%20Friday%20May%2021&utm_content=Closing%20Bell%20Friday%20May%2021+CID_a671116970a88e2121ffd29962ab0974&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Read%20More

TDT

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/21/65m-households-uk-electric-car?utm_term=9d49003f839767e27bd4c0c4a7e5d2b3&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUK_email

TDT

Justinterested15

"....you can choose how much you want to put in."

Very true but with petrol/diesel it takes a couple of minutues to go from close to zero to 100%. To go from near to zero to even 10% in a battery, depending on the charger, can take an awful lot more than a few minutes. Charge time is the real issue not range no matter how many people say it is.

These problems will be overcome in the fullness of time with either better battery chemistries or faster chargers or quite possibly a combination of both.

TDT

shammc

The issue isn't really about range. There are more plug in re-changing points (13,000) around the UK than pertrol stations (8,380). The issue is the time to re-charge. Filling up at a petrol station, if you pay at the pump, takes less than a couple of minutes. Re-charging the battery in your car takes considerably longer.

The two articles posted are interesting becuase they merely highlight the one simple truth which is nothing stands still (I can hear you now JB "Except Robin Young"). The current issue with EVs is price. To bring the price down closer to the ICE equivalent the price sensitive component to play with is the battery. If you can reduce the price of the battery at the expense of range then that's what you do. Once the price of nickel rich batteries falls to such an extent that their use in EVs doesn't push the price up beyond that of an ICE equivalent that's what will happen IMO.

I've seen a few projections that suggest LFP batteries will take a significant slice of the market. I've also seen other projections that suggest the LFP solution is a short term one destined to tail off towards the end of this decade. I think the truth of the matter is nobody really knows how this market is going to develop and, more importantly, what innovations there are waiting in the wings.

TDT

Amur really needs to get a wiggle on.

TDT

"Since Chinese EVs are far more likely to use cheaper, lower-range LFP battery chemistries than their western counterparts, CRU predicts that an increase in sales from Chinese NEV manufacturers worldwide would have strong implications for long-term nickel and cobalt demand."

https://www.mining.com/chinese-ev-makers-may-be-looking-at-western-markets-report/?utm_source=Battery_Metals_Digest&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MNG-DIGESTS&utm_content=china-ev-makers-targeting-western-markets-has-tremendous-implications-for-metal-mix

This was always going to be a potential problem for nickel.

https://www.mining.com/ev-metal-index-jumps-85-in-a-month-despite-nickel-cobalt-price-drop/?utm_source=Battery_Metals_Digest&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MNG-DIGESTS&utm_content=ev-metal-index-jumps-85-in-a-month-despite-nickel-cobalt-price-drop

How much of the market LFP will take remains to be seen.

TDT

Paul Gazzard is a non-exec at Dukemount.

TDT

https://stockhead.com.au/experts/guy-on-rocks-resources-supercycle-is-hitting-its-stride/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter-05-17-2021&utm_content=httpsstockheadcomauexpertsguyonrocksresourcessupercyclei****tingitsstride&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20ASX%20Small%20Cap%20Wrap%20Tuesday%20May%2018&utm_content=Morning%20ASX%20Small%20Cap%20Wrap%20Tuesday%20May%2018+CID_167d4a44d27d83eb8abc2fad0fb414a2&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Guy%20on%20Rocks%20Resources%20supercycle%20is%20hitting%20its%20stride

TDT

Done and dusted with everything passed.

TDT

This is worth 40 minutes of your time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVEL1RaQ7iY

TDT

Hi Garf

We're in Russia. That's the issue and the one which will have the biggest impact on what Amur can get for Kun Manie.

TDT

wasarunner

That Friday 19.57 hrs. post was a bit cryptic so let me elaborate.

I can't remeber who it was that said this but they suggested that the recent fund raise might have been to bolster the balance sheet prior to discussions commencing on a sale. You would want to have as healthy a balance sheet as possible if you thought these discussions were likely to last for any length of time. I put that idea to bed until yesterday when the Q1 results were released and there was no mention of any long lead time orders being placed. Maybe they have placed some orders and they just didn't feel it necessary to say. Three months since a fund raise to facilitate placing order for long lead items but not confirmation of any order being place in Q1 results. A bit odd that don't you think?

TDT

dusterinmong

Quite possibly but once funding is in the bag and construction on site at A1 has started the share price should start is slow trudge north. 30p by the 1st. Q next year, especially if the price of nickel keeps on climbing, is not out of the question.

TDT

Reggie's post at 08.06 hrs. IMO hits the nail on the head.

The 18th. February fund raising RNS said:-

"The net proceeds of the Fundraise will be used to initiate specific early works and advance long-lead time items linked to the start of construction of the Company's Araguaia ferro-nickel project in Brazil........."

Apart from the award of the power line licence can anybody see anything else they've done that would fit the long-lead description in the February fund raise RNS? I would have thought in the three months since that fund raise they would have ordered something and that it would have been worthy of mention in the "Post Period Events" section of the quarter's results.

A 30p take-over price now or 60p to 90p in 2 to 3 years time once production at A1 starts, A2 is under construction and V secures funding. What would most on here prefer?

TDT

Garf

The web site states the following:-

"The limits of the mineralisation are not yet defined and substantial potential remains to be tested in multiple areas within the production licence boundary."

The problem we have with the web site is they haven't been updating it so we don't know if that statement is pre or post the 2018 drilling campaign. Even if it is pre 2018 you would have to assume that there's still more nickel to find both within the current licence and immediately adjacent. There has to be more of the stuff still out there.

Whoever buys KM will have a fair idea of how much more it's likely to contain. I would expect a reasonable chunk to be left for the buyer to discover, if/when we find a buyer. I don't think there will be many potential buyers but you only need one. It then comes down to what there prepared to pony up.

TDT

TDT

TDT

"I suggest that you listen to the recent Tom Winnifrith podcast where he interrogates AB."

TW interrogating his buddy! That reminds me of Denis Healey's famous comment about debating with Geoffry Howe "Like being savaged by a dead sheep.”

TDT