Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Lamps, maybe should try a different market; still, you could bring your average down a bit more:
Lamps56 Premium Member
Posted in: BMN
Posts: 392
Price: 15.75
No Opinion
RE: Impossible to buy29 Mar 2021 11:35
Just bought @ 16.0 no problem. It’s open season folks and ideal for bringing your average down.
Quoting Pdub - "What no one can predict with certainty is the volatile Vanadium price but the demand side looks strong given what we know."
And therein lies the problem, markets don't like volatility. Based on factors outside Bushveld's control, they can swing from loss to profit and back again, as has been seen before. This is not an attribute investors are looking for. Hence no big institutional investors are willing to take the risk on this.
I'm guessing all the the happy clappy rampers are drowning their sorrows in the beer garden
Harchris, if you're going to quote me, at least do it right. Read back on my posts, I sold most in the mid 20's, kept a few for old times sake thinking the tide would turn, and finally disposed of the last few in the 3.5p range. Luckily I haven't had my fingers burnt as badly as a lot of people in here than insist on listening to the happy clappy repetitive rhetoric.
Regarding your metric, I can categorically tell you its a complete load of hogwash, for example it takes no account of current liabilities and has absolutely no contextual meaning. What do you think it is proving? I would love to hear. Stop trying to pretend you have an understanding of financial statements when you don't.
Thanks for the clarity Harchris, your metric is a new one on me! Means absolutely nothing.
Harchris - re your post "And we’re already not that far off cash + inventory equalling total debt so any profits (which I believe we are still seeing) will be closing that gap further."
Just to clarify are you talking about bank loans only because in last accounts cash + stock was £79.6M & total liabilities were £160.5m? Are you not including trade creditors etc?
All means nothing when they're making losses - needs an upturn in vanadium prices in order to survive long term. No guarantee of that of course. DYOR
Sorry Codejunkie but it's a fact. Whilst not actively advising people to invest his rhetoric is very clever at encouraging people to, I bet there's a lot of people out there that wish they'd never heard his name.
Eatstocks, as HMHG says, a good balanced post. As for people getting annoyed over the share price, that situation is hugely impacted by Pdub continually telling the board for the last couple of years what fantastic progress is being made, despite the crash in the price; that's bound to wind people up. Maybe that's his intention, maybe it's not, but in his words DYOR, don't take his reports of progress at face value.
To quote Pdub:
Someone questioned the ability to sell the vanadium. I know …
Facts about sales in last two years by H:
2021 H1 1608 mtV
2021 H2 1706 mtV
2022 H1 1644 mtV
2022 H2 1939 mtV
Well by my maths that's an 8% increase in sales by volume year on year, not great when prices have fallen by 38% over that time, not exactly looking good however you try and spin it
Over 3 months (the period being discussed) it has gone from $38.25 to $34.55 - that is down, not flat
Pdub, so from your data it's dropped by 38% over the last year, are you really expecting them to make a profit this year? It's not going to happen, however wonderful the operational progress is, any operational gains will be more than wiped out by the fall in sales prices.
Production cost guidance for the year is $26.1 - $27 - if current pricing is say $35 (based on your figures) then that doesn't leave much for admin/finance costs - please explain how you see them making a profit as I can't see it.
Harchris, capex isn't an operational cost, it is amortised so will only reflect over a period of time. Also power costs increased by almost 19% in April as Eskom put up prices, that's going to make a dent.
And on the last published numbers, they made a loss on average selling price of $46.4/kg - with prices at $34.55 what will current losses be?
Pdub, I know you won't see this as you've filtered me, but for the benefit of everyone else you are placing a heavy reliance on an increase in vanadium pricing. Yes, there is likely to be a shortfall in the future, however if pricing moves too much then other more cost effective battery solutions will come into play on a larger scale, vanadium isn't the only type of flow battery around as you well know.
Brasi, this report is in relation to lithium-ion batteries!
Thanks Harchris, as it happens it went in ITS on Thursday and back out on Friday for a 180% gain.
Brasi, I've read more of it than most people on the board I suspect, the majority of whom seem to rely on Pdub's comments - try it, you might come up with an alternative view, there's a lot of useful information in there, the majority of which validated my decision to sell.
Marc, I personally couldn't give a monkeys about your losses, I just think it's sad that so many people are getting suckered in by certain posters rhetoric, I just hope you all have a balanced portfolio. Most of mine is in bricks and mortar but some poor sods have put their life savings in here based on what's been said over the years.