Member Info for Trev21

The RNS at 7am repeatedly makes reference to its Third offer (19 times). At no point does it say that it is its 'best and final' offer.

I think there will be a last minute bump to the offer - which again, does not mean that any offer will be accepted, let alone considered.

In the UK, "best and final offer" terms are legally governed by Rule 32.2 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers, which officially defines them as "No Increase Statements".Under the strict supervision of the UK Takeover Panel, these statements carry binding legal consequences designed to prevent market manipulation.

The Core Binding Rules Irrevocable Finality: Once a bidder publicly states their offer is final, "best and final", or will not be increased, they are legally locked in. They are barred from raising the price, amending the mix of consideration, or improving the terms in any way.

Take up weights

Current Stance Ahead of the Deadline

Because Castlelake went public to explicitly urge shareholders to lobby the board, institutional investors are currently in intense private dialogues with both easyJet management and Castlelake advisors (Goldman Sachs).With the "Put Up or Shut Up" deadline hitting at 5:00 PM on Friday, 26 June 2026, institutions are essentially forcing Castlelake to prove the legal ironcladness of their EU regulatory structure before they break ranks with the board to support the bid.

AI

Major institutional investors (such as Wellington Management, Invesco, and Schroders) are taking a highly cautious, "wait-and-see" approach to Castlelake’s public 625p offer, balancing the immediate appeal of a massive financial premium against significant legal, structural, and regulatory execution risks.

1. The Direct Share Price SignalThe most clear-cut evidence of institutional sentiment comes from the live stock market movement. Following Castlelake taking the offer public on Monday, 22 June 2026, easyJet shares rose by roughly 4.3% to trade around 525p.This means the stock is trading a full £1.00 below the 625p offer price. In takeover battles, this large "arbitrage gap" indicates that institutional asset managers remain deeply skeptical that a deal will actually cross the finish line. If institutions were confident the deal would happen, buying pressure would have pushed the price much closer to 625p.2.

2.The Temptation: A Substantial PremiumFor fund managers judged on short-term performance, Castlelake’s pitch is financially compelling:The Premium: The 625p offer represents a massive 59% premium to easyJet's undisturbed price of 394p back on 28 May.The Macro Context: Major institutions have been frustrated by easyJet’s performance this year, with the stock previously dipping 22% due to high jet fuel costs and travel volatility tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. For some fund managers, a clean cash exit at a four-year high is highly tempting.

3. The Skepticism: Why Institutions are HesitatingDespite the price tag, big institutional blocks are largely aligning with the board's hesitation due to several glaring hurdles:

The EU Ownership Trap: European Union rules dictate that EU airlines must be majority owned and controlled by EU nationals. Since easyJet is UK-listed and Castlelake is US-based (Minneapolis), a standard buyout would ground the airline's massive European operations. Institutions are highly skeptical of Castlelake's proposed workaround—partnering with Irish aviation executives Peter Bellew and Mark Breen to use an EU-controlled vehicle. City analysts note that institutional compliance teams fear European regulators will reject this structure as "opaque" and legally unstable.

The "Cheap" Timing Argument: Asset managers like Wellington and Invesco typically look at long-term fundamentals. The easyJet board (led by Sir Stephen Hester) has aggressively messaged to major shareholders that Castlelake is "pouncing" at a highly opportunistic time when the share price is temporarily depressed.

Long-term investors are weighing whether they would make more money by holding onto easyJet as it rolls out its new fleet of 90 Airbus A320neo/A321neo aircraft and pushes toward its target of over £1 billion in pre-tax profit.

continued

Also - and i'm just thinking out loud here, if the shorters were wetting themselves here as someone posted - surely there would be much greater buying activity as they try to close their positions to limit the damage.

SP doesn't seem like it is being driven up with any conviction so shorters must be comfortable that they can close out at a lower SP ......?

Tomorrows update to short positions will be interesting...

It does say a lot - and the market is probably right that an offer will not be accepted.

But, that doesn't mean an increased offer will not be made? An increase to 6.60 for example - might bump the SP by 4 or 5% regardless of whether accepted?

Open to ideas?

I would think it is highly likely now that they will put a firm bid in and bypass the board. Too mush interest shown so far to just accept the rejection.

My limited understanding is that because the major holders have the power - any final bid that does come in would have to be very attractive. I would have thought castlelake will make a formal bid this week but will have to dangle a really big carrot.

AI

The board can block private approaches, but they cannot block a public offer. If Castlelake bypasses the board by launching a formal, hostile takeover bid before the June 26 deadline, the power shifts entirely to the investors:

The Haji-Ioannou Family (~15.3%): Founded by billionaire Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the family remains the largest single block of shareholders. Historically, Stelios has heavily clashed with management over growth strategies, but his approval is absolutely mandatory for any deal to cross the line.

Wellington Management (~4.6%): The largest institutional investment manager in the company.

Société Générale (~4.3%): Holds a substantial voting block.

Invesco Asset Management (~3.2%): A key UK-focused institutional holder.

Artemis & BlackRock (~3.1% & ~3.0%): Major institutional players that traditionally vote alongside broader market sentiment.

The Vanguard Group (~1.0%+): Recently confirmed a reportable position under UK Takeover Code regulations.

The board (along with major shareholders - blackrock etc) rejected all three bids.

560 to 600 was a 7% increase and 625 from 600 was a further 4% increase.

The big holders are the key here. What sort of price would get their attention (enough) from them to bypass the board - and what increase would castlelake be willing to increase from 625 to make something happen (and) leave enough in it for them to make a decent profit.

Another 4% increase takes the offer to 650 strangely enough. Enough of a rise to interest major players? Doubtful ?

Appreciated Thumper.

I haven't made all that much on ezj (10%) as joined the party too late because as you (or someone said) it depends on risk tolerance.

I presumed early on that this could be a storm in a tea cup. It still may be - but what I've learned is that it's worth riding something that appears to have legs (early on), then decide. If I had played this your way I could be out today with circa 20-30% gain.

I have always 'fitted' this game in on the side. I've now got the time to pay more attention and take it seriously.

I can only presume those who defend their position by attacking others are either not holding, small holders or so naive that they think they can protect their position by going at others to discredit them. PIs have unbelievably little sway in large companies like ezj.

Anyone with substantial skin in the game would value (or dismiss) others opinions in a respectful way.

The big boys are out to rob all of us PIs of our meagre wealth with our limited inside information and yet the minions attack each other. Real shame that some can't step back, see the big picture, and try to learn from one another.

I'm happy with my 10% but great for you (and others on here who are clearly decent) if an offer comes your way and you make a significant uptick on what you've already made.

All the best Thumper (and others) and hope the offer comes in early next week.

Trev

There really are some small minded buffoons on here.

As if a private investor like me (bearing in mind PIs only account for about 6% of all holdings) could move the sp - even if everyone on this board was brain washed by me and persuaded every man and his dog I was a trading genius.

The sell blue button was greyed out. Signed in and out 4 or 5 times and eventually let me sell - which I did.

I don't try and influence others on this board - but do ask opinions occasionally because at times some people have valid POV

Unfortunately, there are a number of prize nobs on here in addition to those who are worth sharing views with

I have sold everything. May be a mistake, but mine to make.

All the best

Doesn't look good.

All other shares I am in offer a buy and sell option. Easy only a buy.

Looks like large offloading - any other possible reason?

Will do cheers Thumper.

I really went at AI yesterday and put all sort of scenarios to it and it summarised loads of previous takeovers and attempted takeovers.

It flagged up that in most takeovers - if no offer forthcoming 5 trading days before deadline - price starts to slip on the Monday .

It did however say that it would not drop back to the 3.98 price prior to 1st June and would be supported around the 4.70 -4.80 mark as institutions bought out of their shorts, stating that at current trading volumes it would take a week of buying to close them out.

Also said that at this stage (5 days before) if a n offer is seriously on the table - the sp should have seen far more buying action than it has by now.

I realise that the small minded here will try and slap me down for using AI - but it clearly seems far more clued up than I am with past examples and typical trading patterns.

Think I will get out today and keep hold of what I have.

If a bid does come in, well done to all those who hold.

Top notch. Never seen live - shame.

In this world.

Two Sigma - 1.15% before news broke on 1st June and as was D.E. Shaw.

Thats 0.35% increase in short position for TS and 0.26% for D.E.

So - not 0.10%.

Try harder......what an anuse

Hello all.

I realise that overall, shorts have reduced over the last couple of weeks, but the 2 companies above have ramped up their short holdings significantly since this surfaced. Anyone have any thoughts on this. Recklessness or an expectation of no offer and sudden SP collapse back to pre rumour levels?

Similar drop at exactly same time..

I've only just switched the TV on and seen this.

Is no one concerned this will now escalate with the US retaliating against Iran

Trev

Hello Patsy.

I am not in. I wish I had been at the start of these rumours and then I'd be happy to sell on the current 20% gain, regardless of whether a tangible offer comes in.

Have you seen many other takeovers other than the on e you mention (Spire) where the SP suddenly shot up.

I ask because what is seems that huge conglomerates (BlackRock - managing 14 trillion) has sold roughly 500,000 - 650,000 shares a day over the last week. I notice they have disappeared from LSEs list because their holding of shorts has dropped below 0.5%, now at 0.48%.

Do you suspect this is just a rebalancing act or a huge institutional investor running for the hills before an offer comes in?

I'm in two minds at the minute.

Easyjet was in total 5.39% shorted yesterday which was about 20th shorted stock of 900+.

Today it has moved to 6.34% and 13th most shorted stock.

Its the largest of all shorts as well @ 1.21%

As I have said previously - Im no expert, but you would think a company on the verge of being bought out would not see an increase in short holdings?

Any thoughts / opinions / alternative views

Trev

Trailing stop losses only work if the downtrend is steady. When the SP drops very suddenly, it often misses a limit sell (This has happened to me on a number of occasions.)

More interested suitors, good for EZJ SP.

See what happens tomorrow - Trev