Member Info for Treadstone

Apologies for going to sleep on this one. As you say things can drift on for months, though you would think that Aim would have in its rules somewhere a time limit to force a conclusion. Discussions involving a share suspension can't be allowed to go on forever, otherwise pi's money is locked up for too long. Reverse takeover by HB or walk away. It looks good for HB but not necessarily for ADS. HB get a market quote, but ADS risks being a minnow swallowed up by a shark losing its identity in the process. ADS staff not liking the new ethos may quit and go elsewhere. ADS directors will be well remunerated in shares and may not worry about the rest. If the reverse takeover does'nt in the end work for them, they will move on having done well financially anyway. The city is a people business, but in the end its just money that talks. It will be interesting to see which way ADS will jump. Should a deal be struck I hope that shares will be attractivally priced and that they will actively trade.

There's no shame in selling a stock for a small profit if you are not comfortable with your holding in ASC. The day to day volatility in the market makes it a distraction, but with this company you should only be looking at its future prospects. As has been stated at length by myself and others in past posts this company is making good profits with a rise of 58% in the first 2 months of the new financial year and with its expansion into new markets equipped with more websites profits will rise. You have to give the company time to make its plans work. The sp will rise accordingly with results. In other words you must hold it for a number of years to give it a chance and yourself some profit. It would have been better to have bought it as a penny stock in 2003, but there is a lot of growth still to come. Have patience and faith in Robertson to lead this company to the promised land. Hopefully he won't be stuck in the Sinai desert for 40 years and wind up in the only part of the Middle East with no oil.

Well if Amazon are interested in a takeover, it would be worth knowing the number of shares if any they hold currently on the register. I do not know under aim rules the max number of shares they can own before having to make a full bid. I think its 29 percent on the main board. There are two things that spring to mind. One is that Amazon have no expertise in this area of business. Its not like flogging books and music at discounted prices. The second is the fact that that the value of Asos lies in the staff, if they walk Amazon will be left with only the core assets namely a couple of websites and a giant shed in Barnsley. Like Guy Hands purchase of EMI, Amazon will be forced to pay a high price and land up with a ship impossible to steer because the crew have bailed out and they can't replace them. Assuming Amazon is a quoted company, then their own shareholders might balk at the deal as well. Asos only appears vulnerable to a takeover because of its share structure ie Robertson does'nt own 51% of the company and the majority maybe held by the general public and not even the institutions. This means Amazon can slowly buy up share on the market until it is required legally to show its hand. However takeovers are always complicated and not always beneficial to either party. I personally believe Robertson has no interest whatsoever in selling. He has set the expansion plans in motion and wants to see them through. He's not a wheeler dealer, who will walk away and move onto something else. If it was me buying the company (some hopes) I would leave the current team in charge and maintain the status quo. Buffet owns a number of private companies and has never even attended a board meeting or attempted to influence the direction of business in any way. He just reads the financial statements, pronounces his satisfaction with them and thats it. Rarely a phone call. Nothing. It seems like madness, but sometimes if it ain't broke don't fix it. Let those who know what they're doing get on with it. Amazon and Asos are not a fit and now with expections of a possible worldwide downturn in markets, Amazon may want to hold on to their cash and buy at a lower price later. Now if Philip Green took an interest here .....?

Apologies for delayed reply but my attentions have been elsewhere ie not on LSE. RadDad what the hell got into you to sell this stock. You have agreed in the past with my long posts about finding growth stocks and sticking with them like Warren Buffet. Generally speaking its no use being a grasshopper hopping from one stock to another trying to pick up a quick 25 per cent rise here and there, because at some point you land up with a dog and it sends your pf back down again. Finding a potentially explosive growth stock like Asos is not easy to do but chances are this could still be a good one for all the reasons I have made clear already. We all basically agree about this here I believe. To make money more safely, its best to invest in a company thats making real profits with little or no debt, profits that look to grow well into the future. This is Buffet's way of thinking and I reckon he's done quite well for his shareholders over the years. Steady compound growth from seemingly uninteresting dull businesses that sell everyday products we all use and will continue to use. Like an analytical tortoise he accumulated steadily such companies and using the magic of compound interest/growth over a long period of time rolled up a giant snowball of money. RadDad patience is the key here as you have said. Try and ignore the day to day volatility of the market and concentrate on what the company is doing. This company is ready for the next big leap in sales in its new markets as well as old, assuming profits go up in tandem the sp will look after itself. You also have to avoid worrying about other shares seeming to rocket away when you are not in them and stick with the plan. If you want to get back in, best way is to wait for a pull back, then put in a bit and keep adding at lower prices. Like tomo think of it as a five year plan. Don't beat yourself up about it, after I was the the jerk who passed it up at 17p in 2003 because I asked opinion from a stockbroker who dismissed it because it was a minnow. If it is'nt Rio Tinto they don't look at it.They get their opinions from Evolution and the like and don't appear to have any research notes except on Rio. They charge you fees, are nice people but are no use. You have to look after yourself in life and find your own acorns that will grow into trees and give them time to grow. If you believe in the further potential of Asos give it time to prove itself. I hope you are all well on this board.

Well well this share is beginning to pick up a little steam guys though volumes are relatively slim. Best of all the bid/offer spread is almost zero unlike much else on aim. Can't be better can it. I assume all the positive publicity plus the USA website kicking off soon is attracting new investors to the stock. Hopefully this is the start of the sp slowly climbing upwards in expectation of continuing rising sales worlwide for the company. The only lon term fly in the ointment is the shaky state of the American economy. Whereas we in the UK are seeing growth in some areas of our economy like manufacturing assisted by a cheaper pound, Barack Obama seems to be repeating Roosevelt's New Deal by offering massive road construction projects to soak up unemployment. It does'nt sound good there and fears of a double dip are in the air. Short term market sentiment seems positive, but next year we must keep our fingers crossed that things won't go wobbly on us. Debt repayment is the dinosaur out there and demands to be fed. We shall see. How this will affect Asos sp we can only guess. Probably the best thing will be to trade the volatility until things settle down again because the underlying Asos story will remain positive. Nevertheless the level of American debt is truly staggering and still growing and until I can see how they are going to get out of it, I am going to worry because its a problem that's not going to go away. Never forget that we follow the Dow. I'm not trying to play captain killjoy here but its something to be aware of and to keep in the back of your mind.

No idea at all. Apologise for not responding earlier but took my attentions elsewhere as no response from Ipred. It looks like a cheap way for HB to come to the market instead of an ipo. We shall just have to wait and see if ADS wants to get swallowed up by a larger operation or carry on alone. I shall keep watching.

You keep telling 'em RadDad. The future for this company still looks excellent. The only blot on the immediate horizon is the Dow possibly taking a knock, which may push the sp down for a bit but that's nothing to do with the intrinsic strength of this business

Thanks your reply, have received the following info from Brewin Dolphin - Quote ADS - Alexander David Securities Group Market Cap £2.25 million Year High 1.75p Year low 0.45p Today's Price 0.55p Yield 0% P/E -3.75% Beta 0.06 The group's principal activity is that of an investment broker and corporate adviser. It is listed in the AIM. The company is in talks with Hoodless Brennan Holdings PLC , which may or may not lead to an offer for the firm, subject to due diligence. The shares are currently suspended pending an announcement and publication of an admission document. The potential acquisition would be considered a reverse takeover under Aim rules and needs shareholder approval. The company say there is yet no certainty on whether an offer will be made. Share trading was suspended by the company.- unquote. So there you have it. HB should make an offer in excess of current sp for shareholders like yourself. We will have to see what the BOD have to say to see if they recommend the offer. Its obvously a cheaper way of coming to the market for HB than all the hassle of a ipo. What do you make of it?

ADS - I gather the sp has been suspended pending a possible deal with HB Markets thats being put out as a likely reverse takeover. I have been watching this share for quite a while after it came to my attention in the media and I put it on my watch list. The company is growing the business nicely, but has a liny profile because the shares rarely trade and back in 2009 the 50% bid offer spread reflected that. ie controlled by mms. Like you I should have had a bite at 0.45p and put them away. After all in 2009 they started at around 1.50p. I can only assume that the proposed takeover if it takes place will give the new operation a bigger presence in the market. Its the only way to grow quickly in size rather than organically and I suppose that will mean funding. I have been looking at this as a possible acorn that can really grow in future, and the best time to buy is around now, provided that the shares start to trade and are not wholly a mm controlled market. The directors appear to be ambitious to grow the company, so how do you see it?

I am in broad agreement with your post, however as I have stated before the sp has had a meteoric rise up to £10 at one point a near doubling this year, so a downward correction is inevitable but where is a suitable entry point? This is always a difficult one to answer. The p/e is high but reflects the growth rate of the company and it would take market perception that ASC had reached market saturation for it to fall back. However we know from the company that that is a long way from that situation. In fact ASC is about to undertake the biggest expansion ever with the potential for a huge rise in sales, revenues and profits. Furthermore all the building blocks for expansion have been financed by resources within the company ie new websites and the giant warehouse sited on 30+ acres in Barnsley that will be up and running next financial year, A site geared to handle a five fold increase in sales to £1 billion. With business up 58% in the first two months (April &May) of the current financial year, everything looks positive to me. You know all this from earlier posts, which are mainly gleaned from information provided by the media or Nick Robertson's own statements. As I have said, it would be good if quarterly sales figures were provided, because that would help keep the market better informed as to the companies performance. A bit like Rio Tinto the miner. Otherwise we small investors get pushed around by market insiders who influence share prices with rumours true or false while there are no RNS for months and months. Its a nuisance. I don't like surprises. This can be a great long term hold, so you choose your entry point and ignore the short term fluctuations in the sp and keep an eye out for news and comment. Just look at the size of the US online market and if ASC can get a slice of that. I keep repeating myself but I still think its so important. This company has real growth in sales and profits which still have the potential to keep on compounding up. It deals in a commodity we always will need ie clothes. I don't understand the 18-35 year old women's fashion but Robertson and his team do. As you say its a long term hold and what other company has brushed past its detractors and proven itself. It takes courage to hold, because there are always exciting shares bobbing up and down in aim, but its easy to get caught out as I know to my cost. Impatient for quick results and rapid money, I am afraid to put money away in something long term. If you read the first Buffett book I mentioned to RadDad, you see how he has held shares and other investments in companies he checked out for ages compounding up growth into a staggering sum of money. It may seem slow and dull but over time (if you are young) it can work. This was a 17p acorn in 2003 and because I did'nt research it properly I let it go. Researching acorns can be interesting but getting effective advice from anyone is difficult. One to watch is ADS, now suspended over HB mar

I can't see ASOS in the Footsie 100 but 250 is a possibility or is it there already? Time will tell. My other holdings are down but not too much, so I will wait awhile hopefully they will improve and maybe put the money in here. Since I sold my GkP stock last december, I have just sat on the cash earning nothing for 8 months. The market is so volatile I can't read it anymore. I see GKP is back where I sold it at 108p. Its an amazing oil find, but the political problems are stopping the oil being sold. If a solution can be found the sp will fly so it keeps me fascinated. Iraq is a mess so I'll leave it there. I think my problem is I like being busy in and out of stuff and not thinking long term . Quick profits and move on. It is'nt sensible, but the market always appears unstable and makes me afraid to stay in. I think that affects all of us. I suppose the other thing is that we all feel its difficult to lock money into a longer term stock incase we need the money elsewhere. I dont feel my savings are large enough to park off for five years or more, which is'nt entirely true but eats away at my thought processes. I think what I'm trying to say is that there are too many distractions in the market,which an investor should try and ignore when making investment decisions - including inane waffle on some boards. Off topic take a look at ADS a securities brokerage. In the FT the co is looking at a tie up with HB Markets and raising more funds. The shares do not trade very much and are at 0.45p. It had a bad bid offer spread and an sp of 1.38p last year. They seem ambitious and new to the market and made a profit in the last quarter of their last financial year. Their turnover doubled in their last statement as well . This maybe another acorn that will germinate into a healthy tree. Do a bit of digging. Eventually if it does tie up with other companies, it might attract more attention and the shares to change hands more regularly. I believe its worth at least watching. Tell me what you think?

Yes you're right there and ASOS is thus attracting increased attention from the business press. I believe it would be useful if Nick Robertson would provide quarterly sales figures. It would help the sp no end and keep up the confidence of investors, that are likely to waiver if the Dow takes a knock. I don't like what I'm hearing from Alan Greenspan, the Fed and others about the state of the US economy and we follow the Dow slavishly. Maybe it does'nt matter because ASOS will keep growing, but regular sales updates if positive can help mitigate this threat and protect the sp from possible wild gyrations. However the first 2 months figures of the new financial year are extraordinary, and maybe reflect the increased attention this company is receiving from the young in 167 countries due to Mr Robertson's successful publicity drive. If things do get worse for the worlds economies I believe this company could head in the opposite direction - a bit like KAH in 2008. We shall see.

I don't think mr Robertson wants to flog the company according to the article, he's young and full of energy and with the potential of massive growth in sales so who would in his position. He's just put together the building blocks to enable expansion of the business and he wants to be in the driving seat to ensure it happens. Interestingly he claims not to really understand clothing, just employs 350 designers/buyers who do. I'm not sure I swallow that line but then again how many men understand the fashion industry who are not fashion clothing designers by trade. Maybe he's good at hiring talent and sticking them under one roof. Whatever it is he's good at it. As for Sir Philip Green, noone has risen as quickly as that guy. Apparently real success for him came when he bought a jeans business for about £60,000 and sold it 18 months later for several million and the rest is history. Now as you say its Monaco, flying to London in his own jet and living in a London hotel during the week and flying home for weekends. Nice if you can get it. Going back to a possible take over of ASC, a potential buyer would have to lock in the the talent, because if others follow Robertson out of the door would what have you really bought. A shed and some websites. Its not like Marks & Spencer with a large valuable property portfolio. ASC has a ton of goodwill but few fixed assets. The value is in the talents of the staff. Lose them and the goodwill can be severely impaired unless you can bring in the right people yourself. However I'm sure ASC is being eyed up by others nevertheless.

Further Clarification: ASOS is investing £20million in its Barnsley Warehouse. It is situated on a 37 acre site and due to be operational in the next financial year. The process will assist ASOS in delivering its ambitious aim of £1billion in sales in five years from five main markets. Group revenue rose by a third to £223 million, while profits climbed 44% to £20.3 million The first 9 weeks of trade in the current financial year ie April & May 2010 saw sales increase 58%, which if continued through out the remainder of the year could produce strong growth. Robertson believes that online fashion will continue to outperform traditional retail channels. Looking at their overseas markets Robertson sees enormous potential especially in America. According to data compiled by research group Forrester, the US online clothing market is forecast to grow fom $23.60 billion to $42.70 billion by 2014. However ASOS has no plans to set up warehouses directly in their main overseas markets (I got that wrong), especially with the new move to Barnsley in mind. ASOS believes it can match the delivery performance of international companies, especially in America, after setting up points of return in the country. Looking at current and future trading patterns, the growth potential here is staggering. The size of the US online market alone is bigger than some countries GDPs. If any of this comes true it kind of takes your breath away does'n it? Now should I jump in or not? Barnsley - capital of the fashion world? who would believe it? If I had gone in at 17p in 2003 I could now look forward to compound growth that even Buffet might envy Oh well we can all dream !! To all shareholders hang in here, its going to be an interesting journey. This after all is a Buffet type company with compound growth in revenues and profit Look how well he has done playing the long term game, investing in companies making products we will always continue to buy, instead of short term speculation in companies who promise jam tomorrow but never today. Sure he has taken a few knocks but overall it is he who is the tortoise that won the race, while I run in and out of stocks along with everyone else making profits & losses, but not really in any way being an intelligent investor and that my friends is what really matters. I must go and buy Benjamin Graham's book RadDad and change my approach. Anyway I hope you guys find this to be of some use to you. Keep well.

Confucius say man who keep ear to ground him get run over. Seriously I thought I owed you guys a post on ASC and not on off topics. I simply started rummaging through the internet trying to look for analysis of ASC's results and came across this ST article. I actually wanted to find out more about their American venture and could'nt at this stage, but I think this feature says it all. Robertson comes across as very confident and bullish. His family sounds very entrepreneurial. His brother made about £26 million in a business he started up and a forbear I think founded Austin Reed the mens outfitters. He owns about 12% of ASC stock worth around £50 million plus, three homes and is only 43 years old ie unlike me he is full of get up and go. He was formally employed in advertising before starting up ASOS. One of his clever moves in my opinion has been employing talented IT technicians, who have helped to create a really good and exciting website. I see there's even an ASOS blog for the ladies to chat about their purchases and a quick flick through shows that most are happy with what they bought. Its a lot different than looking at various clothing chains' websites. Mary Portas of Queen of Shops tv fame writes each saturday in the Telegraph magazine a report on her shopping experience at a different well known clothing store. One of her regular complaints is always about their websites, how dull they are and that they need sharpening up even if the in store experience is reasonable. I realise ASOS lives solely off its online activities and others don't, but you can imagine what a major chain might achieve with a similar drive for online success. Yet it appears they don't. ASOS has the lions share of 18-35 women's buying power and they have'nt yet got a serious competitor. This keeps getting more interesting. Real sales, revenue and profits growing at 60% yet again if we are to believe Mr Robertson. Unreal if you can keep this up before it flies too near the sun. I will keep digging for anything interesting. Right off to put my head on the weeping willow.

From THe Sunday Times article dated 13.6.10. Quote - These are good days to be Nick Robertson. "I just love it, can't get enough of it. Our management mantra is we can be big as we want to be and it is really like that. This world is unravelling in front of us and we're going to get one shot at the title". Its a bull's eye not to be missed and he's been like that all week, making presentations to analysts, talking through the firm's record reults with the press. ASOS the mass market fashion e-tailer he co-founded 10 years ago , just keeps on growing. Not for nothing does one broking house describe it as the small cap company that big cap investors shoul now consider very seriously. - unquote There is more to the article. The most important points are as follows. ASOS has 350 fashion buyers (used to be 25), the ranks of young women that are buying in the stock that is flying out of ASOS warehouses. - in the main maxi dresses, festival wear, denim shorts, wellies&clogs. Sales of £223 million should grow 60% according to Robertson. He is putting ASOS into America and launching a new business so that customers can re-sell their clothes e-bay style. That way his core market of 18-35 year old women can raise more money for ASOS purchases. Soon the company will have dedicated websites for Germany, France and America. ASOS is already taking orders from 167 countries and distributing its own freebie magazine. "This about fashion going out to the world", says Robertson. All from a new base in Barnsley, a mega shed giving a potential capacity for £1 billion in sales. Critics are saying that cracking America from Barnsley is a sign that Robertson is over reaching himself. He has to go quickly for overseas sales because growth in Britain is slowing and online competition is fierce. Top Shop, New Look, H&M, River Island and Zara won't sell ASOS brands. THe next 5 years will be more challenging than th first ten. I still think this business has further to go. After the buncefield fire, he managed to pay his suppliers, refund his customers and then rebuild the business. Its a tough outfit with talented motivated staff. Success breeds nay sayers but are they necessarily right? When other retailers are limping alog ASOS has found a successful formula with new websites abroad leading to strong export led growth. There is probably in the pipeline expansion of distribution centres abroad as well. As long as the business does'nt become unwieldy and management is able to cope effectively with its overseas operations ie keeps the customers satisfied, I believe this company is on an interesting journey with plenty of road ahead.

Re RRL I've read everything on the website and some of the posts. Used to see bynari's posts on GKP, always manages to find info that we all miss. It does look good and that's reflected in the high turnover of shares and a decent effort by BOD to keep pi's informed coupled with a strong drilling program on all fronts Success looks assured particularly in Texas. As for Puntland Somalia its a difficult one like Georgia also an unknown quantity, but if Burren Energy had success in Turkmenistan then why not RRL in off the beaten track. I will watch the sp for a suitable entry point, but must'nt wait too long. Thanks again.

I know its the wrong board, But I see you are in RRL which I looked at long ago. It seems to be having some success in its Texas wells. I just wondered what you thought. Thanks!

This is my second go as the computer kicked out my first attempt. Anyway I'll keep it shorter. Thanks for your post. I am in oilies myself but a bit down at the moment awaiting AEX's latest drill and later joint one with Tullow in Tanzania. I see you've had some luck with RKH and awaiting the results of their Ernest drill. Then I would consider selling up before the expenses of infrastructure on the Falklands for shipping out their oil finds. Oilies are great for quick profits and losses depending on luck with the drillbit, but they are gambling chips not investments. I've been in a number of them the best GKP made me 9 times my money, should have been 18 but I tried to hold instead of trading the the ups and downs. My mistake. No complaints I got lucky and I made a profit. Since I sold GKP last december I have bought nothing and am sitting with £100K to invest lying around in cash. I've lost my nerve or read too much Buffet. CHAR BTC RGD ACTA etc passed me by while I watched, but only BTC of those is growing its port revenues and profits. I hate over paying for something that does'nt appear to be making profits just hype about the future. Very clever if you ride the wave but it is'nt investing in anything with real growing revenue and profits. Acta was 6p last year the right time to gamble on it being the new trendy clean energy stock that investors might take a shine to, not now when its 60p plus with high expectation built in. Time to sell and bank your profits. Buffet argues that you should always try and buy low and sell high, a rule I'm inclined to break because I wake up to things too late and don't think. He's right and patience is the order of the day when you invest. It makes sense. In the meantime when you can't find anything to invest in, have a gamble on an oilie or two. Just don't confuse gambling with investment. Re ASC if your girlfriend really has filled up her or your wardrobe with their products it must be testimony to the quality of the clothes. Women always have at least 4 or 5 times the wardrobe of a man so we know now the secret of ASOS' success. Please tell her to keep buying or the sp will fall.

Your post is interesting. Buffet quickly became a disciple of Graham searching through company financial statements looking for cigar butts with a last puff or two left in them ie cos that were cheap and undervalued verging on the ridiculous and investing in them. I don't personally have the skills to do that, which is a pity because then you can analyse a business more effectively and work out its fair value. However as Buffet points out that does'nt always mean that the market will adjust automatically to such a sensible value or not for a long time. Longer than you can wait sometimes. As we have witnessed in the last few years markets can get things totally out of kilter destroying blue chip banks and other institutions into the bargain. Markets get stuck in mantras that are treated like holy writ until it blows up in their face. House prices will rise forever, money will always be cheap so borrow to the max. In the dotcom boom it was turnover that mattered. profits will sort themselves out later but they did'nt. Being 58 and having lived through a number of bad recessions I quickly realised that no one under 35 had ever seen a recession and believed Gordon Brown that he had ended boom and bust. AS if with a magic wand the economic cycle was no longer in existence. Despite what has happened it seems that history will repeat itself at sometime in the future. If the p/e of ASC scares you try RRS I think its double this. Despite warnings in newspapers about this it has'nt altered. If you check on businesses you think are similar their p/e are not similar for reasons that do not make sense. The p/e here is high but the compound growth rate is also in double figures. I do agree that the doubling of the sp may warrant a short term correction below £9, so wait and see then select a suitable entry point. I'm not in this because I missed the boat in the beginning, but like you I think there's a lot more to come especially from the USA. I might change my mind if it falls far enough but somehow I don't think it will. All the best