Member Info for Treadstone

A bid of price of 0.4p and hopefully creeping up. Only a 12.50% spread and 9 trades recorded here though there could be more as the figures are not reliable. Trading is still thin but not dead like it used to be, so lets hope your losses will be made up at some time this year.

Interesting post. iI have'nt been on here for a while, so I hope you don't mind me darkening your towels for a while. I believe ASC are about to report sales figures for the winter quarter up to december 2010. I am going to bet that they will be good. I don't think the snow has hit their sales much pre xmas, because their clothes are prepaid by credit card. The fact that deliveries were probably delayed does'nt hurt their pocket book one jot, it just leaves the customer wondering how long will it take to get his goods. Assuming communications did'nt pack up due to the weather customers can order online as I did from Ebay and the delays were'nt too bad at all. It has of course wrecked the high street which is sad as I like to see people do well. I think ASC business model will even survive the rise in vat, because their goods are'nt that expensive. if you buy something for £40-00 it will only be an extra £1.20 which is'nt so bad. The thing that is bad is the cost of food for one and fuel is the other. I hope you are well and I await the sales figures with bated breath as they say.

I tend to agree with everything you say. Unfortunately the average PI is like a mushroom, ie kept in the dark and fed on bull...t. We don't really know what's happening in the company, unless we go and interview the management and ask a lot of pertinent questions. Otherwise investors have to believe that the management will be able to grow the business annually in order for it to make profits. We can all see the enormous sums generated by the big boys like Barclays, but for a minnow like ADS to acquire wealthier clients to generate serious income growth will be difficult. While we wait for events to unfold, we may see trading falling off again with no news and the bid offer spread remain high. Like you I will watch with interest and see what happens here.

I hope you are still checking on this stock and did'nt get out at a loss. I f you bought at 1.25 - 1.50p I think you will get your money back with patience. When directors start buying big at these dirt cheap prices, you can guess that business prospects are looking up. Failure to buy Hoodless Brennan did'nt help in the sense that advisors fees had to be paid with a rights issue and caused the company to make a loss. Yet that is behind them now and lessons have been learnt from this experience I believe. One of the attractive things about this company, that I have mentioned in previous posts, is the fact that it has a market quote which is worth a lot in itself. A deal with Hoodless Brennan would have given them this and saved them the enormous cost of an ipo - saving them the rip off costs charged by whatever investment bank would been charged with the launch. This is hardly a great market for ipos at the moment as anybody reading the financial press will know. So perhaps internally generated business is starting to look better or another deal is in the offing with a more suitable private firm. Either of those two or maybe a team from another company is interested in jumping ship bringing its clients with them. Having worked in the city I have seen this type of thing going on all the time. Its chiefly a people business and mergers can cause a massive disruption in the culture of a company, causing many to leave who don't like the new guys and the ethos they are working under. Its a quicker way for ADS to grow but to do it successfully and keep a happy ship can be difficult. I'm almost certain this company with its quote is garnering interest from others even if no formal offers have been announced. Above all they can't afford advisory fees of around £250,000 plus evertime they receive an approach worth looking at. Turnover is rising checking the most recent figures, but so are costs and such incidental expenses must be kept down if possible. However the only comfortable way for ADS to grow this way is buy a small private operation outright so they are in control and not swallowed up, which I believe would have happened with HB. ADS has no spare cash, so it can only happen with a major rights issue. Thats not necessarily a bad thing as long as the price paid is fair and not over the top and its a good fit. I have been watching this one with interest for more than a year. The sp was 1.50 p and a 50% plus bid offer spread due to no trading for weeks on end. I phoned a broker and made an offer for a few hundred thousand shares at 0.70p. The 2nd word was off, the first you can guess. MMs had no need to drop the price. I laughed and said I'll just watch the share for a while. I would'nt buy a stock with such a spread and no trades but this little company could be a Warren Buffett acorn that over 5 to ten years grows into something resembling a tree. Its starting to trade and attract a wider investment interest. Directors say its worth holding

The conditional placing was to cover costs incurred through employing advisors on the rejected reverse takeover of Hoodless Brennan. Being a small loss making outfit ADS do not want to pay out of their own pocket by taking a bank loan, which would probably be the only alternative. Unfortunately hiring advisors does'nt come cheap, so I hope that this experience has taught the directors what to look out for in any future negotiations with other suitors, otherwise this will happen again. I think that the only way this company can grow quickly is to do a similar deal with a company that's a better fit. After all ADS has a market quote that makes it an attractive deal for a small private setup. Much cheaper than an ipo. The sp is very cheap and falling a bit today, which tempts me to buy a few but I would have to lock it away for a while to make a profit. Its practically priced as a shell company. Another way to grow is for ADS to attract a specialist team to join them bringing new clients into the firm. Still worth watching this share.

I see the spread is now 50% again. The trades are as slow as ever but a few trickling in. If the buy price falls a bit to 0.25p maybe I'll park off a few hundred quid for a few years for a bit of fun. Just to see where it goes. How's your PF doing? Mine's moving sideways except for BMR which appears to have come to life. Made a little trading GKP on its run up to £2. Other than that its a waiting game.

Exactly. Its in over bought territory.

No I have'nt bought any stock here, but perhaps if I can buy a few but then again you're not going to make much investing £500 and its not worth putting in serious money at this stage. You never know whether the trading is suddenly going to cease leaving you stuck with it. I might get tempted as its so cheap. If ..If...If .. Its that man Kipling again. I should stick to his cakes.

Tomo please accept my apology for my last post. It appears that the p/e of this company is indeed 70.85 and not what I quoted before. However here it says 75.775 on this page. Its a while since I looked at the figure and forgot it would naturally increase with the recent rapid rise in the sp. Its far too high, but should come down when the next annual financial statements show rising revenue and profits. There's a lot of expectation built into the sp, which I hope will be fulfilled.Thanks.

I suggest you look up what a price/earnings ratio is on google. you appear to totally misunderstand it.

There was a time this never traded for weeks on end and in that sense even if 7 trades so far today seems paltry, at least something is happening. If you had bought at 0.25p you would be at par today and then wait. I agree this all looks a bit silly now, but this could be a buy now and wait awhile. After all the sp is still a joke at this price and may not last. I said it might spike a bit having been walked down to 0.20/0.25 spread. It could tick up to 0.50p soon. With patience you could do much better from these levels. No more than £500 and leave it in. The spread can come down as trading volumes improve. Just a thought for the weekend. It was'nt so long ago as you know over 1p and I think it will go there again soon

Yes but there's plenty of substance and growth under the froth as you can see from its last figures. I missed getting aboard at 17p in 2003. I'm wondering if SD77's purchase of Char at 17p will the same for him if it strikes oil next year. Another boat I missed. I've never seen a company grow its sales and profits like this one since Polly Peck until it blew up.

I would ignore the daily volatility in the sp. Its been on the up for a while and getting good support from banks and analysts. As long as the Dow does'nt fall dramatically there's no need to sell the stock to buy back at a lower price yet. Nothing has changed as regards the company, no bad news anywhere so by Xmas we should see some exceptionally good sales figures coming through. The only fly in the ointment is the high p/e of around 47%, but double digit growth I believe is set to continue as the expansion plans are rolled out, so that will not be perceived as a serious problem. Another worry is rising interest rates but I get the feeling that it won't come until the second half of next year. Nevertheless the issue needs watching carefully. I will dig around the net to try and find more articles on ASC. I am particularly interested in its activities in the USA and will report anything interesting. However its early days for its new website there, so I may not find anything new for a while. Thank you.

Well don't beat yourself up about missing investment opportunities, that happens to all but a few. I thought about buying ASC at 17p in 2003 and now its £14. I asked a stockbroker for advice but they did'nt know. Far too small to be on their radar. I recently read a good book called Warren Buffet The Business of Life by Alice Schroeder. Buy it and read it. Its a great lesson in long term investing and how to make big money in growth stocks using the principal of compound growth year on year over a long period. ASC/ASOS is exactly that. Basically it sells fashion to the 18-35 yr old group mainly women through a series of websites. It has grown 21% in the UK and 126% in worlwide sales With new sites in the USA and Europe just opened growth in sales and profits look good for the future. Like you I dither about in oilies like GKP, VOG, AEX and miners like BMR and RRR. I made 9 X my money in GKP, the others are a bit down but will come good soon. However I see Buffet's point in the sense that none of oil explorers are making any profits. In the excitement of discoveries the sps fly up, but the costs of bringing the oil to market particularly offshore are very high unless this is mitigated by a serious find . Great if you had bought RKH at 40p, but a reality check at the small size of the Falkland find should make any pi think in terms of rights issues. There's no terminal port down there so I bet there will have to be mergers to one in place. That will need others to find oil in the north basin. Then think of the transport costs to the major markets up north. Its mere speculation and gambling. Great fun but erratic unless you know how to keep picking winners. Its like a feeding frenzy of rumours in the oil sector hence the DES circus of the last few days. Its speculation not investing. Investing in a company thats makes rising profits year on year may seem unexciting but over time it can be a real money maker. When I look back I've been grasshopping all over the place in and out of stocks and I would have been better off in ASC and gone to sleep. I realise that watching the market daily is fascinating, but it leads me to make loads of poor decisions like overpaying and buying wrong stocks. Patience is key and research where you can. Getting good advice is difficult to come by. To make money you need to buy an acorn such as ADS at a low low price and give it time to grow. Buffett once said that stocks markets are machines that remove money from the impatient to the patient. The mms are walking the sp down daily and a few buyers are appearing. I think there could be a small spike coming. With patience things maybe on the up in the near future. Worth researching and watching. Thank you

I had no idea this was connected to Griffin Mining. Looking at the regulatory news its given 6 months figs until june 2010. I assume that the next 6 months until xmas won't be out until march 2011. A bit behind in reporting but not bad. They have some new corporate clients and net losses down £55,000 to £294000. turnover up and gross revenues up, so not so bad considering the times we are in. The HB deal would have been good for shareholders but not for ADS, unless they wanted to be swallowed up and disappear into a larger corporate entity. Having lived through a few city mergers, cultures change and even directors quit their jobs as a result. An ADs takeover of HB would have wound up the reverse. Promises and assurances given at the timeof takeover about status and job security are pretty meaningless as they are unenforceable. Directors can be squeezed out or sidelined. HB wanted a market quote on the cheap if you like and could swallow ADS whole. I imagine ADS felt a bit threatened. It needs to find a smaller partner - a better fit with a similar corporate outlook. Either that or directors from other companies who can bring corporate clients with them. I f you have'nt invested too much here and can afford to wait I would do just that. Perhaps do some more digging. The cash burn rate is'nt serious as the losses appear to be coming down and the sp can't fall much lower. If you have cash to invest you can look at Char and their Namibian oil prospects. That and ASC (Asos) which Warren Buffett style is compounding sales and profits like you can't believe. I have written some posts there. I hasten to add that I'm not invested in either but I should have been. Thank you.

Just thought I'd reply to your post. I f I remember you bought this for over a penny say 1.45p. I'm not invested here but watching because there could be potential in this penny stock, but have been waiting for the sp to drop. I expected this because there were no trades for days on end, the HB deal fell through and the bid offer spread was almost 50%, practically ensuring that a profit was impossible for a long time. These stupid spreads by mms are killing any trade in this stock, but they will say because there are a few trades the spread needs to be high to generate a bit of income. A chicken and egg story. The sp is now becoming more attractive in my opinion. This company's losses are going down possibly to break even next year. Perhaps most importantly they have a market quotation, which makes ADS attractive to other private companies seeking the same thing. Doing a deal with ADS is much cheaper than an ipo, which is why Hoodless Brennan approached them. There could well be other approaches in the future. Its a better way for ADS to grow its presence than on its own. The sp is so low now that you could argue that it cannot go much lower. I've seen cash shells go for more and this is a going concern. If the HB deal had come off, the sp would be trading better. Be patient and see what happens. Given time this little acorn might grow into something. Having a quote alone makes this little outfit attractive. If pi's are bored and throwing the shares away, it might be worth snapping up a few more after doing more research to satisfy yourself that its safe to do so. This company is so small, that its off the radar of the likes of Evolution securities. Over the next 5 years you could have something to show for it, but it will not happen overnight. If it starts to make profits the sp will take care of itself. I am getting tempted myself, but I know it means locking it up for a good few years. Buying at the bottom is the only real way to make money. Anyway just a few thoughts. Thank you.

Well it seems that caution continues to be the watchword. Today our economy's third quarter growth of 0.80% has appeared to have suprised the pundits, so now they are talking about us being in an economic recovery. A bit early to talk about that in my opinion. Some people connected to the monetary policy committee within the Bank of England are suggesting a rise in interest rates. Mere talk of that is hastening a fall in our market today. A rise in interest rates will cause the pound to rise removing our export advantage and increase borrowing costs etc etc. We should wait a few more quarters to see where we are going economy wise. The signals are mixed because the effects of the cuts have yet to be factored in. Its all delicately poised at the moment and could go either way. It won't take much to upset it. Inflation is something we'll have to put up with. Many agricultural commodities are rising due to crop failures in various producer countries rather than market traders manipulating prices like they did with oil. The signals are still mixed but fear's presence is starting to be felt. Its going to be a fine balancing act that pulls us through this trough. So will the market falter before xmas and will ASC reach its predicted price of £16. Lay down your bets !!

Mogo I actually got bored in 2007/8 twiddling my thumbs and did lose some in Petra Diamonds, when some fool in a newspaper said diamonds were holding up so I bought. Who needs rocks in a downturn. If I had sat on my loss it would have recovered by now. As usual I panicked and bailed. Stayed out out of the game until march 2009 and started to make some good money, then reverted to type this year buying the wrong oilies with some of my money holding the majority in cash. How can you read this market in these crazy times. My stockbroker thinks its going to carry on at these levels. The only play outside ASC is commodities. Most commentators think we are still in a commodity super cycle. So I am in the right area and will have to wait and see if vog,rrr,bmr and aex come to the good over time. The dollar is weakening for reasons that we all know and metal prices are still improving. I should have bought Char at the beginning of the year. It looks like offshore Namibia is showing massive potential like offshore Brazil as millions of years ago they were joined at the hip geographically and share the same geology. Now Its all about the dollar and the Dow. The dow may think that devaluation will help the US balance of trade ie more exports and will hover around current levels for a while. But if I may say so, we are reading that competitive currency devaluation is not getting a good press at the moment and some govts are getting hot under the collar about its possible consequences. As I have said the whole financial architecture is unstable and out of control - by govts or any body else at the moment. They are going to have to be simplified and properly regulated before another disaster strikes, but that is not likely because the worlds govts wont sit down Bretton Woods style and seek common ground about what has to be done. No govt can do it alone in a global market place. Debts in the western economies are still growing. In the UK borrowing is still around £175 Billion this year and next year and rising in 2014. We all rely heavily on public spending in the UK and this happening in the USA. Socialised medicine has been passed into legislation and this will cost plenty. Their govt is participating more & more in the economy with taxes rising and its driving many Americans to distraction, who see this as contrary to the principals of their founding fathers. But like here, they are finding that they have to help the millions on the breadline and those without medical insurance. We have the NHS, but their medical costs are beyond most people's pockets, and even with insurance its not fulproof. If insurers refuse liability you go bankrupt. Its hard to see a way out of this. So Mogo you have every right to be cautious, the tea leaves are not telling a great story. If the dow starts to rattle so will we. We may see 6000 before reality sets in. The markets think that all is well and ASC will continue its run as long as the euphoria lasts. Thanks

Money always seeks a means of making a profit. Emerging markets look a better bet than western economies that appear to be in trouble and thus speculative bubbles can arise. If you are in first you can make money if you buy into something that others follow, and the last entrants at the top get burnt. Mantras and the herd mentality have ruled markets for years. At the moment banks pay nothing for your savings, so only the markets are left to try and improve your wealth. If you hand your money to so called professionals like your pension for example, it can be a bit of a disaster as I have described, They perform even worse than the general indices, pocket commissions and leave you badly off for your retirement. By the time you find out its too late. Its hard to find the smart fund manager and he may quit the company anytime and move on. So its as much a gamble as you selecting your own stocks, so in my own opinion you might as well try and do just that. Markets work on confidence as well as the herd mentality and we follow the Dow slavishly. If the Dow holds up reasonably, I can see the footsie ticking up towards 6000 by Christmas, it will ignore events for the moment in the real economy as it is often behind the curve. In 2007 Morgan Stanley put out a warning to get out of stock markets, so I cashed up and waited. It took until the third quarter of 2008 for their prediction to really unfold. A long wait but I did'nt get burnt badly just a small loss. Patience can be key. Next year growth is unlikely to be here but in emerging markets. However there are areas which all govts are going to have to invest. One of them is clean energy. Many companies are listed on aim which are involved in this area. Few if any are profitable yet, but that does'nt prevent the herd from moving in in expectation of eventual success. The one to watch is AFC. The sp has recently doubled. Its hydrogen based alkaline fuel cells and underground coal gasification technology is beginning to attract attention as a clean method of producing electricity. Examine their website for details. Its early days for them, but I do believe that issues of clean energy are such a pressing problem for govts that they will have to act one way or the other recession or not. So its worth a look. As regards the quality of governance in the UK, we can complain but in the end all we have is the vote. We need a better system of holding politicians to account for their errors. Allowing them to march off into sunset with fat pensions, directorships and speaking fees, while the mugged lose their jobs, homes etc is not amusing. Labour politicians are still in denial of any responsibility, saying it was the banks. Yes but who deregulated the banks, who persuaded Clinton it was a good idea to scrap the Glass Steagal Act, who should have known what the banks were doing but was blinded by the fat bonus taxes, who started a massive increase in public spending in labour voting areas etc etc ? Good old GB!

Interesting that HSBC has upped its forecast sp to £14.75. It does not give a time frame for this, but if the next quarterly sales figures at the end of december show a further improvement, the sp may well head in that direction. The only fly in the ointment is the effect of govt cuts on wider market sentiment with volatility in the market already on the up. It does'nt help that interest rates in China have just gone up, and there is a split in the monetary committee at the BOE as to whether rates in the UK should remain low for much longer. If it should rise by say 25 basis points damage to sentiment may be severe. However in the real economy the bank rate is becoming somewhat irrelevant in my opinion. Banks are still borrowing on the international wholesale markets and are being charged a heavy price for the privilege. The days of cheap money are over for now, while banks are trying to clear up their debts which will take years. This explains why despite a low BOE rate of 0.50%, banks are charging heavily for overdrafts and loans and are'nt exactly falling over themselves to provide them.Savers get nothing. Debt is such a problem in the western economies I don't know how we are going to extract ourselves from its grip. I f you look at govt figures, despite the cuts spending if anything is staying at £175billion and rising by 2014. We've built an economy based on govt spending over the last 60 odd years, such that life without it would cast many into poverty and damage our whole way of life. Its as if we have bought todays high standard of living compared to the 1930s by mortgaging the future. It kinda makes you think. Lets hope we can maintain low rates to keep up people's spending power and help our economy along to get through this. ASC will continue to benefit from it as well.