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I'm 100% correct on this one. Forget websites, historic % holdings etc. Simply take the latest GMET RNS which states the shares in issues (RNS on 13/05/2024) and then take the POW holding they stated on the latest TR1 (RNS on 17/05/2024). Then its a simply maths calc as below:
GMET shares in issue today (see warrants RNS on 13/05/2024) = 106,777,165
POW holding today (see TR1 RNS on 17/05/2024) = 53,998,159
POW % holding (see TR1 RNS on 17/05/2024) = 50.57%
POW are clearly supporting GMET, its in black and white. Why would they not?
Totally wrong again Paul. Where are you getting your figures from?
GMET shares in issue today (see warrants RNS on 13/05/2024) = 106,777,165
POW holding today (see TR1 RNS on 17/05/2024) = 53,998,159
POW % holding (see TR1 RNS on 17/05/2024) = 50.57%
It couldn't be any easier to work out!
No totally wrong Paul. POW have never held 54,426,265 GMET shares. The GMET shareholding % on their website isn't updated very often.
POW had 52,248,756 at IPO and that has remained the same amount. They even released an RNS confirming their GMET holding again on 08/04/2024 confirming they still had 52,248,756 shares. Ignore the % as this fluctuates with dilution. Its the shareholding that matters.
Now they have 53,998,159. The increase being the 10.75p warrants they just exercised.
No totally wrong Paul. POW have never held 54,426,265 shares. The GMET shareholding % on their website isn't updated very often.
POW had 52,248,756 at IPO and that has remained the same amount. They even released an RNS confirming their GMET holding again on 08/04/2024 confirming they still had 52,248,756 shares.
Now they have 53,998,159. The increase being the 10.75p warrants they just exercised.
Incorrect - POW took all their 10.75p warrants Paul .... if we do the maths:
As at the 10/05/2023 IPO, POW had 52,248,756 GMET shares, they held 1,749,378 10.75p GMET warrants. As per the RNS today from GMET POW now hold 53,998,159 GMET shares. POW therefore took all their warrants (as well as an additional 25 shares per those figures but that could be just my calcs being wrong!)
The only reason their % holding dropped is due to the other GMET warrants being exercised which has diluted GMET shareholders.
POW's holding today at the 16p mid price is 53,998,159 shares @ 16p = £8,639,705
As per the RNS today from GMET, POW now hold 53,998,159 GMET shares. POW therefore took all their 10.75p warrants on offer last week. % holding in GMET down to 50.57% due to warrants dilution in GMET and the recent Purebond strategic placing.
POW's shareholding value in GMET today at the 16p GMET mid price is 53,998,159 shares @ 16p = £8,639,705 which represents around 52% of the entire POW market cap!
Will repost my comments on here from a few weeks ago (with a few minor updates) just to outline the undervaluation in POW again:
POW market cap today = £16.8mil
GMET Holding (assuming POW took all their 10.75p warrants) = £8.4mil
FCM Holding (temporarily suspended) = £0.5mil
UEE pre-IPO valuation = £1.5mil
FDR pre-IPO valuation = £2.6mil
VALUATION OF JUST THE ABOVE = £13.0mil
The market now values the following at just £3.8mil:
- Cash in the bank (probably £500k+)
- Molopo – Conductor hit at depth, assays to follow in the coming months
- Tati – Near surface gold found to date with opportunities for tailings processing for future revenue.
- 75% stake in GSAe - Future revenue stream (GSAe posted a 6 month profit for the period ended 31/12/2023 of just under £200k). So that £400k profit per annum before anything ramps up worth £300k (75%) to POW.
- Saudi IPO & future Saudi deals which Sean has stated are near. Sean also stated in the Proactive event a few weeks ago "the Saudi IPO will be POW's biggest to date". GMET upon IPO was worth over £4mil to POW shareholders. Assuming the Saudi IPO will therefore be higher than £4mil.
- UEE IPO / U asset deals which are surely going to worth more than the UEE pre-IPO valuation of circa £1.5mil otherwise Sean wouldn’t have bothered listening to 3rd parties as announced last month.
- NBGC disposal worth up to £1.5mil as announced last month and £250k initially in cash.
- ION Battery Resources future IPO (contains POW's early stage Lithium assets)
- New Horizon Metals - future Aussie IPO which POW hold 20% of at present
- Silver Peaks (30% minority stake)
- Haneti (35% minority stake with partners Katoro Gold, Katoro Gold now have POW & Ex-POW executives involved)
- Any upside from GMET as they move into a key Pilot Mountain drilling campaign with DoD funding possibly around the corner
What a strange strange market we are currently in! Almost no potential priced in at all. I'll continue buying POW at these levels until the market finally catches on.
Regarding POW's Uranium assets / Uranium IPO, the following update was released on 25/03/2024:
"The marketing process for the planned IPO of UEE continues to attract significant interest from a range of investors, including institutional investors, HNWs and retail investors in the UK and elsewhere, including a potential cornerstone investor.
However, a number of significant potential strategic investors have indicated their preference for alternative deal structures which may include a different combination of assets, or an enlarged asset set with an enhanced business model.
The Board of Power Metal is therefore considering, from its point of view, all options and will revert in due course on the progress of those discussions and how this would affect the proposed IPO of UEE both in terms of timing and structure."
Sure those potential talks are coming to an end now after 6-7 weeks? If successful, the market will be updated shortly and the deal for POW shareholders should be much better than what POW shareholders would have received if the UEE IPO went ahead in March 2024 when it looked almost weeks away from listing. If not, then its back to the UEE IPO plans which I would expect it would list within a matter of weeks of the next Uranium update.
Sean seemed to hint on a recent video with Rick Rule a couple of weeks ago that news should land before the Rick Rule Symposium in Florida which POW are attending in the second week of July 2024. I personally expect to hear news from multiple other fronts as well (Saudi IPO, GSAe, Molopo assays) before July 2024 too.
Fully agree, the valuation gap here is crazy as simply no potential is priced in during a period where POW seem to have plenty going on behind the scenes.
Original 10.75p warrants O/S as at 10/05/2023 = 18,420,222
Converted to date = (10,195,542)
REMAINING 10.75p warrants O/S as at 07/05/2024 = 8,224,680
Value of 8,224,680 10.75p warrants remaining = £884,153
Expiry date of 10.75p warrants is 10/05/2024 (THIS FRIDAY)
I don't invest in the junior exploration space in general. I don't believe the odds are anywhere near worth investing in 99.9% of plays out there.
Never invested in Sula Gold etc. Had a small position when PJ took the helm in POW as I liked his CV to date and financial background and his ability to stretch POW's limited working capital on acquiring many projects on the cheap (Pilot Mountain, Athabasca licences etc. for starters) whilst nobody wanted them.
Since Sean took the helm I have increased my position by around 500% in POW. I like that Sean is looking to spread the chips across multiple plays whilst retaining a large enough holding in each venture in order to benefit down the line. Sean is clearly building on the start PJ gave POW. Hopefully we see those building blocks start to grow shortly with talks on these U asset deals, Saudi IPO etc.
No one in their right mind would walk into Caesars Palace in Vegas and bang all their chips on number 28 of the roulette wheel. Well that's your standard Junior exploration company which so many clueless AIM investors walk into on a daily basis and wonder why the walk away with no returns. POW are spreading their chips across multiple numbers of the roulette table. Yes, the rewards will be lower but still substantial but at least you aren't going home in tears due to dilution, failures etc after a short period of time.
If you have a £15mil balance sheet and the business is telling you in its latest RNS releases that they are working on some U deals with deep pockets, the biggest IPO to date is coming via the Saudi RNS etc. yet the market values you at £13mil, then for me it's shouting BUY. Yes the SP is supressed, but that's Mr Market currently. When Mr Market acts this irrationally you buy, when it acts irrationally and overshoots the other way in terms of valuations in this space you sell. Unfortunately, most AIM investors do that opposite.
The market will eventually react, I've just made sure I'm in before it does and that's all you can do as an investor.
From the GMET AIM admission document:
"Under the terms of the Placing and the Subscription, the Company has agreed to issue 17,281,010 10.75p
Warrants and 17,281,010 17p Warrants to the Placees, the Subscribers and the Pre-IPO Investors.
The Company has also agreed to issue (i) the Broker Warrants to First Equity to subscribe for 507,755
Ordinary Shares at 10.75 pence per Ordinary Share and for 507,755 Ordinary Shares at 17p pence per
Ordinary Share and (ii) the Cairn Warrants to Cairn to subscribe for 631,457 Ordinary Shares at 10.75 pence
per Ordinary Share and for 631,457 Ordinary Shares at 17 pence per Ordinary Share"
Therefore total 10.75p warrants are:
Investor Warrants @ 10.75p = 17,281,010
Broker Warrants @ 10.75p = 507,755
Cairn Warrants @ 10.75p = 631,457
TOTAL 10.75p warrants = 18,420,222
Link to the AIM admission document can be found on the GMET website here:
https://www.goldenmetalresources.com/investors/aim-rule-26/
Agree sol001. I get you are frustrated and fully have the right to voice your opinions.
All am I trying to say with my comments is that its all to do with Mr Market and nothing to with POW at present for the facts I state on here each week in terms of what POW currently hold.
POW are adding value slowly, the market just isn't pricing that value in. Yes its frustrating, but for those who haven't overleveraged themselves, its the best buy opportunity I have seen here in the history of Power Metal Resources (since circa 2019) in my view.
If everything was kept under POW you would be diluted to death if you wanted any progress!! You are judging the POW model based on the SP performance in a poor market which is affecting all junior exploration companies pretty much. I don't make my opinions on POW based on its short/medium term SP performance. I only use the SP as metric when I'm buying or selling. And the SP today screams buy. I view POW on the value it is adding to its balance sheet as that's what ultimately this model is all about.
I'm not happy with the SP, far from it! I'm sure every single POW shareholder out there is unhappy. I'm pretty sure Sean Wade is banging his head against his desk on a daily basis too. But the drop in SP here is totally illogical based on the facts I put on here on a weekly basis in terms of what POW hold in their portfolio.
But is that a reason to sell? Absolutely not, it's the reason I'm continuing to hoover up as many POW shares as I can. The markets are inefficient in their nature. They will turn at some point and when you have a balance sheet that's larger than your market cap, then those types of companies will be in the driving seat when the winds from Mr Market change.
FYI - Not on commission, all I do is state hard facts and throw a few of my opinions into the mix along the way. If you think it all sounds too positive then I apologise. It's Mr Market that is holding this SP back, not the poor actions from POW.
Have a good extended bank holiday weekend all! Hopefully some positive news next week from the ongoing U asset deals and Saudi pre-IPO!
The SP is worse, the business isn't. Management continue to push forward with the business plan albeit much slower than anticipated due to poor sector and market conditions. Those with deeper pockets have started to come on board (Rick Rule, Purebond, Saudis etc.).
Therefore if you liked it when POW was valued at £30mil in 2021 when everyone was piling in, then why would you not like it today when its valued at £14mil by the market and POW have a balance sheet that's greater than their market cap?
GMET warrants getting converted and some are selling POW to pay for it hence why the SP goes does down in POW in the short term. The investment case hasn't changed.
Original 10.75p warrants O/S as at 10/05/2023 = 18,420,222
Converted to date = (6,194,225)
REMAINING 10.75p warrants O/S as at 03/05/2024 = 12,225,997
Value of 12,225,997 10.75p warrants remaining = £1,314,294
Expiry date of 10.75p warrants is 10/05/2024
That's my point PowerfulPete, it didn't start off at 3p. You bought in at 3p (now 60p post consolidation) at a time the business could prove almost nothing of that valuation. It was at 3p because of pure hype. 12 months before the hype, you could pick POW up in late 2019 for about 0.5p a share. The business didn't create 6x the tangible value that it had in 2019. It moved x6 on covid liquidity and hype and unfortunately you bought in at the peak hype period by the sounds of it.
Now the business is valued at 13p (0.65p pre-consolidation) and can prove every penny of its valuation and more. But for some bizarre reason, AIM investors don't fancy it, but they will sound enough so I'm positioning before they do.
You bought at the wrong time if you were picking POW up at 3p in 2021, you cannot blame POW for that! You make you profits by investing in POW at these current levels when nothing is priced in. Not at points where the company's market value is a million miles higher than what it can prove on paper.
Good luck too.
Not bothered about short/medium SP swings as the market place is inefficient in its nature. If SPs moved up with every piece of good news and down with every piece of bad news, no one would invest in anything. You make you money in the stock market when it acts the most inefficiently in my opinion on both sides of the spectrum. Buy when its obviously undervalued, sell when its obviously overvalued.
I look at the SP solely on a "what can the business prove" basis. At the minute at 13.25p a share in POW that's a £14.6mil market cap. Theoretically if a liquidator came in tomorrow, they would have very little problem getting £14.6mil into a bin bag of cash. Therefore I'm a buyer of a stock in this position.
On the other hand, take 2021, the POW market cap spent a good chunk of time above £30mil but a liquidator would have had a tough task getting even £3mil into a bin bag of cash at any point in 2021. AIM loved it, the PR companies pumped it and investors got suckered in with their covid money in their bank accounts.
U asset deal talks are happening, a Saudi IPO is in the pipeline and POW's 75% stake in GSAe Ltd will bring in a bit of revenue (they made about £200k profit in the last 6 months of reported accounting data so circa £400k profit per year) .... none of this is priced in, not even a single penny. So if it all fails, no money goes into the theoretical bin bag of cash anyways so I'm no worse off. If any positives come from these projects, then the bin bag of cash will increase.
AIM retail only understand "the SP has gone up so the business is good, the SP has gone down the business is bad". Huge opportunity here to get POW at a remarkably cheap price, but that's only my opinion based on my own logic which has served me genuinely well so far over the past 10 years+.
That's the million dollar question sol001 and arguably AIM isn't a good market at all to have a model like this because the average retail investor lives in a dreamland where they want 20-30x return on their investments in a matter of months because they see it happen on a couple of stocks once every 10 years. Most with deep pockets avoid AIM like the plague and rightly so.
Based on POW's listed investments, pre-IPO investments, cash in the bank etc. I put that at around £15mil today. Now JP2000 has indicted below that Molopo, Haneti, Tati etc. are worth "diddly squat" at the minute. Well I couldn't really care less if that is correct or not because the market is also saying at the minute they are worth diddly squat so they are in for free if you invest today. It's hard to put a value on them, but are they totally worthless? Package them all up in another AIM listed company and that AIM co could easily have a £5mil market cap most likely. Therefore by investing now, I am buying in at a price where if POW theoretically decided tomorrow they wanted to sell everything, they would have at least that £15mil market cap in a bin bag of cash (I stress the word theoretically)! Its almost a win/win in this situation when you have a solid £15mil balance sheet as you are investing at the minute in a business that the market say has no potential. POW have had their issues with a lot of their assets but I think there is some solid potential re their Uranium assets & Saudi IPO alone. Progress in both those areas also has £0 priced in.
Selling pressure at the moment is mainly coming from POW holders selling POW stock in order to convert GMET warrants. Again, that isn't hurting the POW investment case yet the POW shares get cheaper by the day because of it. Another buy indicator in my books.
POW hold 55% in GMET (will be around 50% once the GMET 10.75p warrants are converted). GMET therefore holds all the risk. POW holds very minimal risk and gets the cash free ride whilst getting half the rewards as well. My personal preference.
When you invest in a business that has nothing to show for its market cap apart from pure hype, AIM herd followers etc. then you know its going to end in tears most likely. Exactly what happened to most junior exploration companies in the covid years. Not currently the case with POW.
Bottom line here, if GMET has doubled but POW hasn't moved. All that does is strengthen the POW investment case for me. But that's only my logical view. AIM is anything but logical as we are experiencing across the board at the minute. That for me also has little to do with POW and more to do with Mr Market which is unfortunately out of everyone's hands.
The biggest worry for me here currently is that if POW can easily demonstrated in theory that they can put their entire market cap in a bin bag of cash tomorrow, I'm sure it must be coming up on a few radars for a potential cheap buyout offer.
I'm not ramping in the slightest PowerfulPete, I always just state a bunch of facts and figures based on accounts, financial data, RNS, comments from the board of directors, the company presentation etc.
If what I have put below in my latest comment is "ramping" in your view, then aren't you admitting its a good buy opportunity at these levels? All I have done is broken down the company's interests. If that sounds too good and a ramping spree, then it's surely an investment opportunity?
I'll come back to the comment I always state. When you were buying this stock a few years ago when the market valued the business at £30mil+ but the business had almost nothing to back up that valuation in terms of assets. Now you won't say a positive word about the same company which is now valued at £15mil with 6, 7, 8x the assets it had back then.
I think your concerns are therefore more with Mr Market rather than POW.