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Original 10.75p warrants O/S as at 10/05/2023 = 18,420,222
Converted to date = (10,195,542)
REMAINING 10.75p warrants O/S as at 07/05/2024 = 8,224,680
Value of 8,224,680 10.75p warrants remaining = £884,153
Expiry date of 10.75p warrants is 10/05/2024 (THIS FRIDAY)
I don't invest in the junior exploration space in general. I don't believe the odds are anywhere near worth investing in 99.9% of plays out there.
Never invested in Sula Gold etc. Had a small position when PJ took the helm in POW as I liked his CV to date and financial background and his ability to stretch POW's limited working capital on acquiring many projects on the cheap (Pilot Mountain, Athabasca licences etc. for starters) whilst nobody wanted them.
Since Sean took the helm I have increased my position by around 500% in POW. I like that Sean is looking to spread the chips across multiple plays whilst retaining a large enough holding in each venture in order to benefit down the line. Sean is clearly building on the start PJ gave POW. Hopefully we see those building blocks start to grow shortly with talks on these U asset deals, Saudi IPO etc.
No one in their right mind would walk into Caesars Palace in Vegas and bang all their chips on number 28 of the roulette wheel. Well that's your standard Junior exploration company which so many clueless AIM investors walk into on a daily basis and wonder why the walk away with no returns. POW are spreading their chips across multiple numbers of the roulette table. Yes, the rewards will be lower but still substantial but at least you aren't going home in tears due to dilution, failures etc after a short period of time.
If you have a £15mil balance sheet and the business is telling you in its latest RNS releases that they are working on some U deals with deep pockets, the biggest IPO to date is coming via the Saudi RNS etc. yet the market values you at £13mil, then for me it's shouting BUY. Yes the SP is supressed, but that's Mr Market currently. When Mr Market acts this irrationally you buy, when it acts irrationally and overshoots the other way in terms of valuations in this space you sell. Unfortunately, most AIM investors do that opposite.
The market will eventually react, I've just made sure I'm in before it does and that's all you can do as an investor.
From the GMET AIM admission document:
"Under the terms of the Placing and the Subscription, the Company has agreed to issue 17,281,010 10.75p
Warrants and 17,281,010 17p Warrants to the Placees, the Subscribers and the Pre-IPO Investors.
The Company has also agreed to issue (i) the Broker Warrants to First Equity to subscribe for 507,755
Ordinary Shares at 10.75 pence per Ordinary Share and for 507,755 Ordinary Shares at 17p pence per
Ordinary Share and (ii) the Cairn Warrants to Cairn to subscribe for 631,457 Ordinary Shares at 10.75 pence
per Ordinary Share and for 631,457 Ordinary Shares at 17 pence per Ordinary Share"
Therefore total 10.75p warrants are:
Investor Warrants @ 10.75p = 17,281,010
Broker Warrants @ 10.75p = 507,755
Cairn Warrants @ 10.75p = 631,457
TOTAL 10.75p warrants = 18,420,222
Link to the AIM admission document can be found on the GMET website here:
https://www.goldenmetalresources.com/investors/aim-rule-26/
Agree sol001. I get you are frustrated and fully have the right to voice your opinions.
All am I trying to say with my comments is that its all to do with Mr Market and nothing to with POW at present for the facts I state on here each week in terms of what POW currently hold.
POW are adding value slowly, the market just isn't pricing that value in. Yes its frustrating, but for those who haven't overleveraged themselves, its the best buy opportunity I have seen here in the history of Power Metal Resources (since circa 2019) in my view.
If everything was kept under POW you would be diluted to death if you wanted any progress!! You are judging the POW model based on the SP performance in a poor market which is affecting all junior exploration companies pretty much. I don't make my opinions on POW based on its short/medium term SP performance. I only use the SP as metric when I'm buying or selling. And the SP today screams buy. I view POW on the value it is adding to its balance sheet as that's what ultimately this model is all about.
I'm not happy with the SP, far from it! I'm sure every single POW shareholder out there is unhappy. I'm pretty sure Sean Wade is banging his head against his desk on a daily basis too. But the drop in SP here is totally illogical based on the facts I put on here on a weekly basis in terms of what POW hold in their portfolio.
But is that a reason to sell? Absolutely not, it's the reason I'm continuing to hoover up as many POW shares as I can. The markets are inefficient in their nature. They will turn at some point and when you have a balance sheet that's larger than your market cap, then those types of companies will be in the driving seat when the winds from Mr Market change.
FYI - Not on commission, all I do is state hard facts and throw a few of my opinions into the mix along the way. If you think it all sounds too positive then I apologise. It's Mr Market that is holding this SP back, not the poor actions from POW.
Have a good extended bank holiday weekend all! Hopefully some positive news next week from the ongoing U asset deals and Saudi pre-IPO!
The SP is worse, the business isn't. Management continue to push forward with the business plan albeit much slower than anticipated due to poor sector and market conditions. Those with deeper pockets have started to come on board (Rick Rule, Purebond, Saudis etc.).
Therefore if you liked it when POW was valued at £30mil in 2021 when everyone was piling in, then why would you not like it today when its valued at £14mil by the market and POW have a balance sheet that's greater than their market cap?
GMET warrants getting converted and some are selling POW to pay for it hence why the SP goes does down in POW in the short term. The investment case hasn't changed.
Original 10.75p warrants O/S as at 10/05/2023 = 18,420,222
Converted to date = (6,194,225)
REMAINING 10.75p warrants O/S as at 03/05/2024 = 12,225,997
Value of 12,225,997 10.75p warrants remaining = £1,314,294
Expiry date of 10.75p warrants is 10/05/2024
That's my point PowerfulPete, it didn't start off at 3p. You bought in at 3p (now 60p post consolidation) at a time the business could prove almost nothing of that valuation. It was at 3p because of pure hype. 12 months before the hype, you could pick POW up in late 2019 for about 0.5p a share. The business didn't create 6x the tangible value that it had in 2019. It moved x6 on covid liquidity and hype and unfortunately you bought in at the peak hype period by the sounds of it.
Now the business is valued at 13p (0.65p pre-consolidation) and can prove every penny of its valuation and more. But for some bizarre reason, AIM investors don't fancy it, but they will sound enough so I'm positioning before they do.
You bought at the wrong time if you were picking POW up at 3p in 2021, you cannot blame POW for that! You make you profits by investing in POW at these current levels when nothing is priced in. Not at points where the company's market value is a million miles higher than what it can prove on paper.
Good luck too.
Not bothered about short/medium SP swings as the market place is inefficient in its nature. If SPs moved up with every piece of good news and down with every piece of bad news, no one would invest in anything. You make you money in the stock market when it acts the most inefficiently in my opinion on both sides of the spectrum. Buy when its obviously undervalued, sell when its obviously overvalued.
I look at the SP solely on a "what can the business prove" basis. At the minute at 13.25p a share in POW that's a £14.6mil market cap. Theoretically if a liquidator came in tomorrow, they would have very little problem getting £14.6mil into a bin bag of cash. Therefore I'm a buyer of a stock in this position.
On the other hand, take 2021, the POW market cap spent a good chunk of time above £30mil but a liquidator would have had a tough task getting even £3mil into a bin bag of cash at any point in 2021. AIM loved it, the PR companies pumped it and investors got suckered in with their covid money in their bank accounts.
U asset deal talks are happening, a Saudi IPO is in the pipeline and POW's 75% stake in GSAe Ltd will bring in a bit of revenue (they made about £200k profit in the last 6 months of reported accounting data so circa £400k profit per year) .... none of this is priced in, not even a single penny. So if it all fails, no money goes into the theoretical bin bag of cash anyways so I'm no worse off. If any positives come from these projects, then the bin bag of cash will increase.
AIM retail only understand "the SP has gone up so the business is good, the SP has gone down the business is bad". Huge opportunity here to get POW at a remarkably cheap price, but that's only my opinion based on my own logic which has served me genuinely well so far over the past 10 years+.
That's the million dollar question sol001 and arguably AIM isn't a good market at all to have a model like this because the average retail investor lives in a dreamland where they want 20-30x return on their investments in a matter of months because they see it happen on a couple of stocks once every 10 years. Most with deep pockets avoid AIM like the plague and rightly so.
Based on POW's listed investments, pre-IPO investments, cash in the bank etc. I put that at around £15mil today. Now JP2000 has indicted below that Molopo, Haneti, Tati etc. are worth "diddly squat" at the minute. Well I couldn't really care less if that is correct or not because the market is also saying at the minute they are worth diddly squat so they are in for free if you invest today. It's hard to put a value on them, but are they totally worthless? Package them all up in another AIM listed company and that AIM co could easily have a £5mil market cap most likely. Therefore by investing now, I am buying in at a price where if POW theoretically decided tomorrow they wanted to sell everything, they would have at least that £15mil market cap in a bin bag of cash (I stress the word theoretically)! Its almost a win/win in this situation when you have a solid £15mil balance sheet as you are investing at the minute in a business that the market say has no potential. POW have had their issues with a lot of their assets but I think there is some solid potential re their Uranium assets & Saudi IPO alone. Progress in both those areas also has £0 priced in.
Selling pressure at the moment is mainly coming from POW holders selling POW stock in order to convert GMET warrants. Again, that isn't hurting the POW investment case yet the POW shares get cheaper by the day because of it. Another buy indicator in my books.
POW hold 55% in GMET (will be around 50% once the GMET 10.75p warrants are converted). GMET therefore holds all the risk. POW holds very minimal risk and gets the cash free ride whilst getting half the rewards as well. My personal preference.
When you invest in a business that has nothing to show for its market cap apart from pure hype, AIM herd followers etc. then you know its going to end in tears most likely. Exactly what happened to most junior exploration companies in the covid years. Not currently the case with POW.
Bottom line here, if GMET has doubled but POW hasn't moved. All that does is strengthen the POW investment case for me. But that's only my logical view. AIM is anything but logical as we are experiencing across the board at the minute. That for me also has little to do with POW and more to do with Mr Market which is unfortunately out of everyone's hands.
The biggest worry for me here currently is that if POW can easily demonstrated in theory that they can put their entire market cap in a bin bag of cash tomorrow, I'm sure it must be coming up on a few radars for a potential cheap buyout offer.
I'm not ramping in the slightest PowerfulPete, I always just state a bunch of facts and figures based on accounts, financial data, RNS, comments from the board of directors, the company presentation etc.
If what I have put below in my latest comment is "ramping" in your view, then aren't you admitting its a good buy opportunity at these levels? All I have done is broken down the company's interests. If that sounds too good and a ramping spree, then it's surely an investment opportunity?
I'll come back to the comment I always state. When you were buying this stock a few years ago when the market valued the business at £30mil+ but the business had almost nothing to back up that valuation in terms of assets. Now you won't say a positive word about the same company which is now valued at £15mil with 6, 7, 8x the assets it had back then.
I think your concerns are therefore more with Mr Market rather than POW.
Any SP appreciation is good news for POW holders, even if the market doesn't say so in the POW SP initially.
POW market cap today = £14.6mil
GMET Holding (including warrants in the money) = £8.2mil
FCM Holding (now temporarily suspended so less liquid) = £0.5mil
UEE pre-IPO valuation = £1.5mil
FDR pre-IPO valuation = £2.6mil
VALUATION OF JUST THE ABOVE = £12.8mil
The market now values the following at just £1.8mil:
- Cash in the bank (probably £500k-750k)
- Molopo – Conductor hit at depth, assays to follow in the coming months
- Tati – Near surface gold found to date with opportunities for tailings processing for future revenue.
- 75% stake in GSAe - Future revenue stream (GSAe posted a 6 month profit for the period ended 31/12/2023 of just under £200k). So that £400k profit per annum before anything ramps up worth £300k (75%) to POW.
- Saudi IPO & future Saudi deals which Sean has stated are near. Sean also stated in the Proactive event a few weeks ago "the Saudi IPO will be POW's biggest to date"
- UEE IPO / U asset deals which are surely going to worth more than the UEE pre-IPO valuation of circa £1.5mil otherwise Sean wouldn’t have bothered listening to 3rd parties as announced last month.
- NBGC disposal worth up to £1.5mil as announced last month and £250k initially in cash.
- ION Battery Resources future IPO (contains POW's early stage Lithium assets)
- New Horizon Metals - future Aussie IPO which POW hold 20% of at present
- Silver Peaks (30% minority stake)
- Haneti (35% minority stake with partners Katoro Gold)
- Any upside from GMET as they move into a key Pilot Mountain drilling campaign with DoD funding possibly around the corner
What a strange strange market we are currently in!
Couldn't disagree with you more ScottyDogg. Complete lack of knowledge of the POW business model.
At 14p a share this is a £15.4mil market cap today. POW's investments today in FCM & GMET are worth £8.4mil. Their pre-IPO investment values in FDR & UEE are worth £4.1mil, there must be at least £750k in the bank so that's = £13.25mil for starters. The market is now giving a valuation of £2.15mil for the following:
- Molopo – Conductor hit at depth, assays to follow
- Tati – Near surface gold found to date with opportunities for tailings processing for future revenue.
- GSAe - Future revenue stream
- Saudi IPO & future Saudi deals which Sean has stated are near. Sean also stated in the Proactive event a few weeks ago "the Saudi IPO will be POW's biggest to date"
- UEE IPO / U asset deals which are surely going to worth more than the UEE pre-IPO valuation of circa £1.5mil otherwise Sean wouldn’t have bothered listening to 3rd parties as announced last month.
- NBGC disposal worth up to £1.5mil as announced last month
- ION Battery Resources future IPO (contains POW's early stage Lithium assets)
- New Horizon Metals - future Aussie IPO which POW hold 20% of at present
- Silver Peaks (30% minority stake)
- Haneti (35% minority stake with partners Katoro Gold)
- Any upside from GMET as they move into a key Pilot Mountain drilling campaign with DoD funding possibly around the corner
If everything above is worth £2.15mil I give up! Well I'm doing the opposite of giving up in reality and adding more as and when I can, but you get my point. The market valuation at the moment is the most ridiculous it has ever been in the 3.5 years I've been a POW holder. Astronomical gap between reality and what the market prices this business at in my view.
Absolutely agree DonkeyOatey.
The only move I have not really agreed with this year from POW is this one hole Molopo drill campaign. It's very costly, you are never going to really prove anything with one hole and also drilling comes with a 0.001% chance of success. Certainly not the reasons why I invested in POW. I am here for the "spin out / merchant banking" model.
Focus for me should be on the Uranium asset deals which could shortly bring in a bolstered balance sheet (if POW go down the UEE IPO route), could also bring in cash to POW if they decide to partially sell the assets and joint venture some out, or they may even get equity from potential larger exploration/mining firms in a JV. I'm personally looking forward to see some tangible figures on these potential U deals. I feel they could be in the £1,000,000s rather than the £100,000s. The UEE IPO seemed pretty much done and dusted for the end of March 2024. Why delay this unless there is something significantly better on the table is my view.
Also the Saudi pre-IPO should raise substantial cash. Sean also said this IPO will be the biggest one yet for POW. Upon listing, GMET was worth around £4.25mil to POW in May 2023 (now circa £7.6mil), so you would assume POW's stake in the upcoming Saudi IPO will be higher than £4.25mil. Doubt the Saudi's would get out of bed unless substantial money was on the table too.
Good to see the business have positioned themselves so that Molopo results are just a "bonus" rather than "business critical" but nevertheless, happier to see funds used to get assets into IPO vehicles so that cash burn down the line is heavily reduced and POW can just sit back and watch their investments grow (GMET) or shrink (FCM). All of which costs POW ziltch!
As always, POW just need a fair wind from the market. At present it is anything but fair. Also good to see that POW are not reliant on going cap in hand to the AIM market and the shyster brokers. Latest financing done via Saudi & Purebond multi millionaires and POW also have Rick Rule's contacts too for favourable finance if required. With £8mil+ in investments already on their balance sheet (all become tradable on 10/05/2024), POW are in a far better position than most valued at sub £20mil in my opinion.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLSEq-Jbfck
Video now available, some great points raised by Sean. Especially around POW's Uranium assets.
Worth a listen!
New heavily updated company presentation on the POW website (updated within the last week) suggests marketing could be about to crank up. Would have to assume the main focus would be targeting the US market after the OTC listing is fully up and running.
https://www.powermetalresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/POW-Presentation-April-2024.pdf