Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Privateryan, thanks a lot for doing a proper review and I oversaw indeed the Australian dollar. What we also do not know how much they missed on royalties. It’s difficult to do a proper calculation indeed. Looks like we need to rely on soft factors stil.
Private Ryan, did you in the mean time digest my PE ratio rationals ? Would appreciate to receive some feedback.
Wobble1:
It’s easy to find news about cap-xx
Indeed.. just google on Wobble1 ;-)
Private Ryan,
I’m sorry in case my calculation is causing confusions , Let me shortly explain the rationals.
The company is currently loss making, therefore formally the p e ratio can’t be calculated.
Nevertheless, we also know other things:
- the loss from operations is only 400k based on a period where the volumes are still low compared to the capacity.
- sales And design ins are growing with a healthy margin.
- since the production is highly scalable without additional costs, this means once this margin goes straight to the bottom line. Therefore I calculated the profit margin directly to the bottomline (loss is only 400k and I expect this loss is caused in the beginning of last financial year)
I hope this clarifies the rationals behind the calculation.
For some reason, I was reminded todayvto this commercial from 1979…
https://youtu.be/43VhRKJX_sk
Wouldn’t it be nice if cap-XX will have same effect in 40 years ?
Hi all, a correction on my previous post based on the totally valid feedback from Vanilla:
I did misunderstood the interview: 30-40 mln $ is indeed 13-14 mln $... I think my hearing aids need also a cap-XX instead of only battery...
Therefore a correction:
I hope that this post can stay a bit longer on top of the posts so that a lot of people have time to digest:
Hi all,
I was looking to the old proactive investors interview which was shared on LSE board during the weekend.
This gave some figures which I used to do some further calculations:
1 Murata had about 13-14 Mln$ sales with this line.
2 The line was expected to improve Cap-XX profit margins.
In the meantime we also learned:
3 About 75% of the customers stayed already.
4 There are also some new costumers announced (Assumption of 10%)
5 The margin from Cap-XX was already quite high (above 40% if not mistaken)
Based on above figures, I did my back no envelope calculation:
13.5 mln * (75%+10%) * 40% = 4.6 mln of profit
Number of outstanding stares are 500 mln
Profit over equity ratio is 15 (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnonequity.asp)
This means a shareprice of 4.6 x 15 / 500 = 14p
I think this is a very conservative calculation since:
1 Ratio of 15 is low for an emerging business.
2 40% margin is I think too low
3 License incomes and IP related payments are NOT included.
4 China made products sales are not included.
Therefore the 1 pound party seems for me still valid within 3 years. (Based on above recalculation this is only possible with a serious capacity expansion)
What also was interesting was that Kongats mentioned that the IP infringement is about: Performance. If this is really the case then ALL supercapacitors above a certain performance are in scope.
Very curious on what others insights are !
I hope that this post can stay a bit longer on top of the posts so that a lot of people have time to digest:
Hi all,
I was looking to the old proactive investors interview which was shared on LSE board during the weekend.
This gave some figures which I used to do some further calculations:
1 Murata had about 30-40 Mln$ sales with this line.
2 The line was expected to improve Cap-XX profit margins.
In the meantime we also learned:
3 About 75% of the customers stayed already.
4 There are also some new costumers announced (Assumption of 10%)
5 The margin from Cap-XX was already quite high (above 40% if not mistaken)
Based on above figures, I did my back no envelope calculation:
35 mln * (75%+10%) * 40% = 12 mln of profit
Number of outstanding stares are 500 mln
Profit over equity ratio is 15 (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnonequity.asp)
This means a shareprice of 10.5 x 15 / 500 = 36p
I think this is a very conservative calculation since:
1 Ratio of 15 is low for an emerging business.
2 40% margin is I think too low
3 License incomes and IP related payments are NOT included.
4 China made products sales are not included.
Therefore the 1 pound party seems for me still valid within 3 years.
What also was interesting was that Kongats mentioned that the IP infringement is about: Performance. If this is really the case then ALL supercapacitors above a certain performance are in scope.
Very curious on what others insights are !
Wobble, are you paid per post ?? ;-)
I looked again to the pro active investors interview you shared over the weekend. Interesting to watch it again with the things we know today.
Looks like a start up: http://www.nawatechnologies.com/en/products/
Frac, nice find…. Looks like they also have their own supercaps:
Originally unveiled by NAWA Technologies at CES 2020, NAWARacer is powered by a world-first ‘hybrid’ battery system combining conventional tech with NAWACap next-gen ultracapacitors
Offering ten times more power and five times more energy than existing ultracapacitors, NAWACap unleashes the potential of a hybrid battery, bringing huge efficiency improvements
More and more convinced that this lawsuit with maxwell is a crucial one.
Wobble, btw good post earlier today about the growth potential. This is for sure supported by most of the people on this board and in case this happens, the private investors would also like to Benefit equally as the Institutional investors.
Hi Wobble1 and others who might to join, please send me an email with your holdings, broker and personal address. (tradingdutchman.cpx@gmail.com)
I will add you to the cap-xx list which we share with cap-xx board in case we have a follow up meeting.
We are currently digesting on how to approach the AGM and all ideas/insights/brainpower is more than welcome, all emails are done under bcc.
The only thing I can’t do is share the notes of the recent board meeting since your personal data is not
Shared previously with the cap-xx board.
Sarniasharie and others who liked this post:
I’m sorry to read that you feel surpassed since I really tried to keep the process as transparant as possible without jeopardizing company confidentialities and everyone’s privacy. I even added an extra round for each to join, which actually delayed the process.
Nevertheless, I think one important thing which happened was that the cap-xx board made the detailed earnings document public on their website (which I really appreciated). This is normally per my understanding only shared with the institutional investors.
Mer400, I can only confirm your post, thanks for that.
Hi all,
I will not post anything or discuss of the board meeting on this board. All details are in the summary which is shared with the investors that shared their personal data with the Cap-xx board.
Sorry, but can’t make it better.
Where did you notice these dividends Wobble ?
OS, I noticed that the CEO is really understanding operations. Which is for the current situation very good. I also think they are playing very close on the ball.
There is one point which is concerning me is that the competition is not always playing a fair game while I think Cap-XX has a high morality. Examples are Ioxus bankrupt and simply start again and the recent underpayment of royalties.
So yes, it would be my cardealer.
Hayashi, I meant the disclaimer. Apologies
Om request of Cap-XX board, please read the 2nd slide carefully
https://www.cap-xx.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Sept-2021-FY-Results-presentation-v2.2.pdf