Member Info for Toyin

Bubs, reread Elric’s post and then mine, if you are still struggling I will point it out for you.

On opti please explain as I haven’t held opti for approximately 3 years and have never been taken in hook line and sinker, hence why I sold.

Mad isn't ridiculous at all, I agree with him. What is ridiculous is saying Croda or bust, Croda is happening, so that isn't even a sentence.

SA decided to diversify because he didn’t want to rely just on Croda. Lets for one minute assume Elrics £1m from UMG is correct (looking at opti forecast I think that’s fair), add that to the £500k plus Axisbiotix sales and it all starts to add up.

No one is happy with where we are but let's try and keep it rational.

Bufflehead, SBTX drew £1.6m from the facility, every time there is a conversion you deduct it from the £1.6m, before this morning it was £890,000 outstanding after the £150,000 today it is £740,000 outstanding.

Aquae, I dont see that being the case. If that was the plan why would they state analysis and read-out of the final results anticipated before the end of Q1. Plus, I dont think we are in a position or have the luxury of delaying any positive news flow.

Clio, it must be the CB, that amount of volume would normally send us 10% up or down at least, so I guess they must be matched trades.

PGlancy, your theory is valid and the market seems to agree with you, hence 10p share price. I would have thought that between them they would be willing to hoover it up as everybody knows it is the biggest drag on the share price and considering what they already hold and what the new boys Unicorn stumped up, it's not a big ask. The only thing I can think of is that it won’t be eligible for EIS/VCT relief, that might be a stumbling block. This is why I want the Modi forecast asap as it would give plenty of liquidity to get rid of the CB. I think that is the closest low hanging fruit regarding actual price changing news, subject to it being a strong forecast which I believe it should be based on the figures opti have published (I know that’s a bit lame but its all we have to go on). This is my biggest frustration at the moment, Morepen aren’t launching until July, yet SOH has a detailed five year forecast, Modi launched nearly three months ago and we have nothing.

The M&A and Axis, I agree its been disappointing but I would guess the CB was going to be used for acquisition two, after the backlash he will have needed to sort alternative funding, maybe that’s the delay. On Croda, I lay the blame with Croda, management had anticipated revenues in 22 & 23 which didn’t materialised, the nomad and board must have had information from Croda to allow this to be put in the rns'. Then in the presentation they pat themselves on the back for getting it done in less than five years when it normally takes seven, but initially signed a four year deal, this I cannot fathom.

It is very frustrating but lets hope that Modi/Croda pull us out the hole very soon.

Let's keep it pleasant folks, we are all in the same boat. I understand the frustration but let's look forward to the near term upside. CB being cleared, Modi forecast & Croda forecast. Modi launched 1st March so they must be close and Croda is forward selling the lysate when the external trial finishes in week 1 June. Either one of those forecasts could put us multiples of where we are now and they are just around the corner.

Its £890,000 Mad, but looking at the trades and share action over the last few weeks I believe the CB is being worked through. Fingers crossed we are nearly done and can keep moving up.

mad, i understand what you are saying and whilst the news from croda and dermatonics was good, it wasn’t exactly going to give the share price a long lived lift, we need revenues for that. the cb is what it is but the way macquarie/clg have dumped was obviously not part of the plan. for me, i would prefer a very strong modi forecast that can clear the bond, get rid of the bankers and keep dilution to a minimum, i dont want to give these ****ers one more share than absolutely necessary. who knows where we are up to with the remainder, hopefully sa has got it away to long term shareholders like the first lot, i just want it/them gone asap.

Mad, "Why push for good news until that note is removed?"

Firstly it would generate volume for the CB to be sold into, secondly, if it were "good news" it would hopefully raise the share price which would mean the bond holder converts at a higher price and it would be less dilutive to existing shareholders, bwtfdik!

Elon, what medical trial are you on about?

Farris, you are getting hung up on this revenue point and it isn’t relevant, the important thing for them is conformation we can produce multiple products.

For me the jury is out on UMG being able to push the whole pillar worldwide and it isn’t at the forefront of my mind at the moment, let's see if they can walk before we see if they can run. I am fed up of thinking about things that could happen six or twelve months down the line. I am focused on the CB, Modi forecast & Croda forecast, things that will hopefully happen in the next few weeks and hopefully transform the share price, this is the most important thing. One thing is for sure, if the Modi forecast doesn't come out punching, all this talk of worldwide Axis is a moot point.

Farris, I don’t believe that to be correct.

Sounds, that isn’t what we do, we have “blackbox science” we cant do what Croda do or what Modi do. Couple of examples, Croda are potentially selling our science to over 12,000 customers, Modi have started selling our products in six countries through a sales force of 1200 people, how much would it cost for us to do that, from scratch? It would cost us £100s of millions and years to gain a reputation and customer base the likes of Croda or Modi. Croda have already spent circa €6m in the last four plus years just getting the lysate to market. It's not as simple as getting a sales team together and hawking our wears around.

Sounds, I agree with your frustration but as Aquae points out we need a partner with deep pockets. It's not that we dont know how to sell, it's the fact that, a) we dont have the budget to do it and b) we are not a b2c business, that's why we need acne results asap to bring on board a multinational.

Regarding Dermatonics, it's way too soon to say if we paid too much, we will have a better idea when we get the Modi forecast. The narrative from TW is it's too expensive, too dilutive and will guzzle cash for the next two years, this is what pi's have listened to and the company has not been able to counter this argument. Having seen the size of Modi, I think TW is 100% wrong. I wasn’t particularly enthralled with the whole acquisition plan but I understand why SA has decided to go down this route. We have to remember management were anticipating revenues from Croda in calendar year 2022, then 2023, Croda have kicked the can and SA has decided he wants to take more control of the companies destiny and not rely on others. Needs must and I would’ve done exactly the same.

We need the CB clearing, Modi forecast and Croda forecast asap. When we get any two out of those three, we will be in a completely different place.

Baz, I believe the acne results will be very good. We know Axis Ps already helps with acne, plus the interim data from the acne study was very positive, it will work. Then hopefully we can get the pillar away to a multinational pdq!

Baz, relax, it’s the CB being worked. If you look at the trades there is a sell with an identical amount straight after at a slightly higher price, this is just a transfer from the seller to the buyer.. This is a good thing it means SA is dealing with it, I believe it will soon be flushed through.

Disco, Croda will start selling the lysate in June, so yes, we will get revenues in H2.

Oleric, we have the science that Cath invented and we have enough going on along with future opportunities to probably last us a lifetime. So if you want to argue about semantics, fill ya boots but its a moot point. Shall we monetise the opportunities we have currently, which are many, before worrying about new science we may need in another 20 or 30 years time!

Aquae, they have already launched.