Member Info for Toukankahmoon

It’s the same old hysterical ramping with you folks. Hasn’t the last five years taught you anything?

“There has to be a fantastic announcement because anything else is unthinkable “. How has that investment strategy paid off for you so far. There will be no deal until P1b produces results that satisfy the partner/investor. CC has said this. All the evidence suggests this. There has to be a fund raise soon, unless. . . .

Flippin

I did say it wasn’t indicative of timescales for AVA6000. But for me it is an eye opener in terms of the work needing to be done. You don’t just roll up and have drugs pumped into you. The screening process alone is 17 weeks.

Capt

Yes. I’m not sure whether it’s because I’ve been active on the surgery’s patients group, one of my volunteering efforts.

As it happens I have just been invited to take part in a Phase 3 clinical trial of a new drug. This is giving me first hand experience of the time involved and the effort that goes into each phase before the drug is approved. Some of you may already have taken part in clinical trials perhaps even this one. For those of you who haven’t, I thought this insight might be instructive in appreciating the extensive timescales.

In November 2018 a Phase 1 trial was started with the intention to compare Xxxxxxx to placebo in 100 healthy adults

In July 2020 a separate Phase 1 study was started with thirty participants with clinically diagnosed conditions of the condition that the drug will cure.

In 2021, the company added a second part to this trial, enrolling an additional 32 healthy adults.

Through 2021 and 2022, enrollment was adjusted upward twice to a final of 224, the treatment period increased to 61 weeks, and the study added subcutaneous dosing. Conducted at 10 U.S. sites and three in Japan, the trial ran until November 2024.

The Phase 3 trial plans to enroll 1,200 participants worldwide for 18 months of home treatment with subcutaneous injections, followed by a blinded observation period, against a primary endpoint of time to progression.

The trial will last about 5 years and comprise:

1. the screening period of about 17 weeks depending on your personal health care situation

2. the treatment period of about 78 weeks

3. the observation period of about 3 years

4. the follow-up period of about 20 weeks

So in 2031 they may get approval for this drug. That is 13 years from the start of the first phase 1 clinical trial. And you all think that Avacta is slow. I won’t bore you with the screening process which is arduous.

I am not saying AVA6000 will take 13 years in total but I am starting on a personal experience which will give me a far better understanding of the time involved.

The strategy makes sense. There will be no bidding war. Novartis will licence AVA6000. All profits will be ploughed back into the necessary R&D so no dividends. Factor that into your NPV calculations

We don’t meet NASDAQ rules and even if we did it doesn’t happen for free and in my opinion it would result in a 2:1 dilution at the very least otherwise it makes no sense. Anyhoo I cannot see any way at the moment that there can be a non-dilutative raise of the money we need which is why I have made no significant buy for more that two years and will be ready to go when the RNS announces the raise at fire sale prices.

Haven’t checked but assumed it was the final six (n=6) patients dosed in P1a.

Bigears

CC isn’t the problem. She laid out a roadmap with timescales back in January. The Pom Pom girls have chosen to ignore her and continue their hysterical baseless fantasising. CC cannot report good news when there will be no significant news until convincing P1b results are published.

Biggest risk for LTHs is a takeover at current prices. But I don’t think this will happen. I see dilution until P1b provides the results that will convince Novartis to sign the licensing deal for AVA6000. That is why I’m not buying yet. Also have too many shares already anyway.

Play hard, stay young

Thorn

There really isn’t anything to say now is there. They would have had to RNS it today.

We wait for P1b

If you have to keep working to enjoy life then that is sad. Especially given the amount of income the government take from you. Have you no hobbies? Friends? Do some volunteering and charity work now and again.

I’d rather be cycling or walking in the Welsh hills or sailing than working, personally although I have done a couple of consultancy jobs that interested me.

GLA

When calculating a NPV for Avacta how much profit have you set aside for R&D for pipeline and future drugs?

Ice

Jackedter makes a valid point. Given what has happened in past 12 months, why was Simon hired so long ago? Rhetorical.

Regarding your snipe at me: from an early age I set a target of 55 for retirement and achieved that 20 years ago. I have a comfortable lifestyle but this has been achieved through a solid investment strategy in high dividend shares, not in the get rich quick gambling world of penny shares like Avacta.

That is why I urge caution.

BV take notice of what CC says. But only when it suits your rhetoric. 🤡

Awax

It isn’t negativity.

It’s a good honest look at the facts (or as little facts as we are told) and taking into account events over the past 5 years.

“People sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” entry are delusional. A red dot RNS could land any morning with an STS deal, instantly flipping sentiment and closing the door.”

I am not timing my entry. I am sat on a shed load of shares that I bought for a lot more than they are worth now. If this is the multibagger you all hope it will be then I will do very nicely. If it isn’t then I will be happy I didn’t throw good money after bad at this point.

Also money I could have been investing in Avacta over the past two years has been doing very nicely elsewhere.

Awax

How many times in the past has a long silence or delayed reporting resulted in massive good news? Zero times. You are all delusional

Don’t you folks get tired of building up the hysteria for each webinar to only find out it is what it says it is? Then you are obliged to analyse every phrase to nuance the secrets out of it to find hidden meanings where there are none.

It would be laughable if I wasn’t so far under water.

From RNS 31 March:

“The Company has begun enrolling patients in the Phase 1b expansion cohorts, including salivary gland cancer, triple negative breast cancer and high-grade soft tissue sarcoma and plans to report updates from these trials later in 2025”

So as far as I’m concerned that is when dosing started.