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Lets look at it another way. Net free cash generation is Q2 was $26m giving a net cash position of $31m.
If Q2 & Q3 are the same (much higher basket price at the moment) that gives $31m + ($26m x2) =$83m.
I would suggest they have taken $33m off for Vulcan giving $50m (assumes Vulcan is 1/3 paid for).
Maybe add in an increased dividend and that's how a rough and inaccurate calculation can come out at an extra $10m of cash generation.
Brokers are either ultra conservative or crazy bullish - but rarely correct.

Having said I don't do cash flow predictions I couldn't help a very quick calculation at today's basket prices.
Q2 threw out about $725 / Oz of FCF after CAPEX spending.
Allowing for today's prices for the entirety of Q3, an increase to 40,000 Oz and similar CAPEX (Vulcan will most likely hit it's highs on payables in Q4) then we will generate $60m of FCF in Q3 alone.
The numbers really are astronomical if this level of commodity prices persist.
Even 2 quarters at these levels makes the EV/EBITDA ratio absurdly low - which in my view it is now.

TBTT to add a little more that I noted from the presentation:
Smelter - "Contracts with Impala & Sibanye end in Oct 2022, after that THS are free to smelt more of their own PGM's". It appears that the expansion of the 1MW smelter is not a technical issue its more due to commercial contracts.
"EV/EBITDA of 1.7 to 2.7 is based upon the forecast of 3 analysts and not on current figures." 2.7 is too low and also so are the forecasts that I have seen, so we will see a re-rate on this front.
Vulcan is Sept as mentioned but interestingly the PGM increase to 200,000 Oz will be incremental over the following 18 months which is good news, it will mean a steady increase in PGM's Oz's from 2021-2023.
Phoevos view on commodity pricing was that we should see some stabilising around these prices.
I also read the article posted by Nimrod which mentioned the Vulcan CAPEX . The author stated about 1/3 of the $54m Vulcan plant was paid for. if that's the case then $36m left. It won't all leaves the bank this FY but at least it's a guide.

Some appear to be seeing the results today as slightly disappointing / a mixed bag.
The only slight down I can see is that we might have liked a few more PGM ounces, but lets face it THS beat Q2 ounces last year so YOY there is growth. One other way to look at lower output due to the weather is that all producers will suffer thus constraining supply and thus supporting prices.
1) PGM prices, I forecast $3,200 in my model, they came in at $3,290.
2) Chrome prices, I forecast $145/T due to increased shipping costs etc, even with those they came in at $155/T. You could argue that using the CIF price makes the $145/T slightly more reflective of the additional shipping costs but that depends how your model handles costs.
3) Cash flow - an excellent increase. You may notice that I don't forecast cash flow. For me it's impossible to predict on a quarterly basis without knowing the CAPEX spend, the debtors/creditors and thus net receivables. However, by anyone's measure it is an excellent number and will help to push the SP on over the year ahead.
All in all the EPS for Q2 alone should be above 10p excluding any one off's that get added to the balance sheet as a boost to reserves. I expect it to be even higher when taken into context with exchange rates. This quarter we are starting off with prices commodity prices significantly better than the start of the last quarter.
Not bad really !!

It's only the quarterly update tomorrow not the H1 results which are due at the end of May.
The quarterlies only usually give a production update, but if they include the average prices we can pretty much work out H1 results.

Very difficult to decipher what are buys and sells particularly with the late trades. What is important though is the volume which will help to clear through the Fidelity trades. After that it's one way traffic.
Good to see more interest on here.
Not sure if it has been posted here but Barclays increased it's long term Rhodium price by over 60% to $22,000/oz.

I think my PGM price is also a touch pessimistic as are my PGM volumes which I believe will be beaten taking into account Theo's desire to achieve the 160,000 Oz this year as a minimum. With Chrome though and it's lack of pricing information I always err on the very cautious side.
But that's how I always run my numbers - with some slack in them.
I prefer to be pleasantly surprised than to be left somewhat disappointed.

Hi TBTT,
I hope you are right on Fidelity's holding, I can't seem to find any up to date information - although I have not searched that hard. Stockopedia have it as of March 12th at 13.4M shares & 4.88% so your 3.5% could be a good shout considering they have been a regular seller. Maybe a couple of good RNS's to clear the remainder.
As to why they have been selling - In my corporate days I would call it bonus accounting !! Sell some of the star performers to bank the profit and the bonus that goes with it. In some ways it also makes sense to de-leverage and Fidelity gets no more credit if one of their funds increases 100% in a year than if it increases by 50%.
Now that the Qtr is out of the way I have THS's average Q2 basket price of $3,467. My Q1 number was $2,454 against THS's $2,399 so I am normally reasonably close. If I take a slightly lower $3,200 and Chrome @ $145 / T, THS would make a staggering net profit of circa $46m for Q2 alone !!

It's a very strange share really. I don't think I have ever seen trades that are so blue generally day after day and yet the SP can move lower. I can only conclude that the MM's are fully aware of what Fidelity are looking to offload and are adjusting the SP accordingly regardless of the daily demand.
The problem is that the daily volumes are quite low to absorb the quantity that Fidelity are offloading quickly. The only solution for the MM's is to increase the SP dramatically on any half decent RNS of which we will have at least 2 in the next 2 months.

The percentage of profit retained in the past pertains to large CAPEX spends against much smaller profits than are currently earned today. Thus the percentage profit retained going forward will be much larger.
It is very much a myth to be believe that a small companies SP reflects it's future potential. The SP of a small company is dictated my market makers. They have 2 jobs - make a market and make money.
As profits of small companies increase then the interest of investors increases, thus demand is increased and MM's will move the market accordingly in a higher direction. MM's are looking backward unless investors show sufficient demand to drive them to look forwards, however once the profits roll in and the P/E is too low then the MM's come under pressure to increase the price, usually after a price drop to get hold of the shares they require.
This is the advantage that we have - we can look forward. We know what the 6 monthly results are going to look like and we hope that THS gets some good write ups. When the SP pushes on is out of our control, could be tomorrow, next week but most likely around May 21st. The only thing to be done is build a position and wait.

Difficult to decipher Eastplats - as already mentioned the information is sketchy.

As a guide though JLP through Inyoni will produce 1400T/M of PGM con for smelting at a grade of 100g PGE (4E) which gives 55,000 Oz PGM per year.

If Eastplats cake is the same then 200T/month would give 7,800 PGM Oz per year and the expansion to 800T of cake would be very interesting. The question lies within the "IF" i.e. is it 100g/T or something completely different. Until that is known it is purely a gamble. Equally what is the profit share %.

A double top or a slightly higher high - I'm not sure it really matters that much.
Pretty much all commodities are off their highs and as such most commodity companies are following suit. Sibanye, Anglo & Impala are 9-11% off their highs, FXPO down 9% yesterday, RIO down 15% in a month and BHP down 12%. Miners are getting a spanking at the moment.
From a Rhodium perspective it is hardly surprising it is down. Semiconductor supply to the auto sector is down, thus the demand for catalysts will be down, so not much point in buying too much Rhodium. Europe going into lockdowns, the US growing through stimulus strengthening the $ and thus hitting $ denominated commodities. Suez canal, EU/UK tensions, US / China tensions, elections in Peru, Chile and Zambia so the usual talk of making miners pay. Not too much positivity at the moment.
Next month reverse all of the above and go into over hyped positivity. I gave up a long time ago getting overly concerned by a world in which normal is boring and does not sell so everything is either heroic, outrageous, doom and gloom or over hyped.
The point is this. THS is a well run company - I don't think you can blame the CEO for being overly optimistic on Rhodium or for answering a question positively that was maybe none of his doing. I would be more concerned it he was pessimistic about PGM's and thus pessimistic about his company. THS's numbers will be incredible for H1 - we already know most of them, I could be out by a factor of 50% and they are still good. The start of H2 will be at a basket price that none of us would have believed 6 months ago.
The outlook for PGM's (Rhodium in particular) is growing demand leading to deficits. There is no quick way to supplement supply. The short term ebbs and flows of a market will continue but the long term looks more positive than negative.

I think we are also seeing a general weakness in the last 2 weeks of SA miners since they were down rated in the annual Fraser institute report. This hit the headlines after the SA PGM day recently.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/south-africa-slips-to-sixtieth-on-fraser-institutes-investment-attractiveness-index-2021-03-12/rep_id:3650
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/45680-mantashe-urges-six-month-fast-track-delivery-of-sas-new-minerals-cadastre/

Not too far out TBTT for a quick calc.
I have spreadsheets set up for the basket price on a monthly and quarterly average that feed into another spreadsheet that mimics the THS accounts. I always like to mimic a companies accounts since each company reports differently and thus it ensures I don't miss anything. At this stage of THS's H1 it enables me to be very accurate on their EPS excluding exceptional items which of course no-one can predict but tend not to be too surprising with a company like THS. I go a touch conservative to give myself some safety and also because with metals companies there is always some adjustments to be made from the concentrate % etc. These should be up in a rising commodity price.
For Q2 I have used a $3,040 basket price. THS's current Q2 is $3,460. Chrome I have used $168.
Q1 was $2,399 for PGM and $136 for Chrome.
It really doesn't take a genius to see the obvious !!
Undervalued is an understatement.

I would view the $30,000 as a psychological irrelevance. Of course it is very nice to see it if it happens, it would be even nicer to see it stay for a while but $30,000 is not the number Tharisa needs for a rerate.
We have some excellent PGM basket prices with an OK Chrome price. The profit that Tharisa makes and the cash flow it generates at these prices doesn't just make a difference today it makes a difference for many years to come. The same can be said for many other miners in good commodity price environments - it allows for debt to be paid down, investments to be pulled forward, dividends to be distributed and balance sheets bulked up. In a world of high debt and low returns, the liquidity of companies like Tharisa is invaluable.
So back to my first point, $30,000, $25,000.... it's all a bonus and hopefully it continues for some time in the future. Tharisa was undervalued at $13,000 Oz, the more cash it adds to the balance sheet at these prices then the lower the Rhodium price needs to be for it to be undervalued.
Where Rhodium goes from here nobody knows. I can see arguments for both sides of the equation - on the upside we have China's heavy duty emissions legislation happening in the next few months, tightening emissions in Europe, lower Rhodium from Norilsk. On the downside we have Anglo's back log will see Rhodium by the end of the year although most likely only 25,000 Oz per year, Norilsk may come back on stream quicker and a very high price environment will encourage thrifting.
Personally I see the balance more in favour of the upside and a Rhodium price between $15,000 - $25,000 over the next few years with the short term at the high end of the range if not higher.
The interims in May are the catalyst for me.

At current PGM prices and Chrome prices Tharisa would make a net profit attributable to themselves of close to $300m on an annualised basis.

I am bullish on PGM prices but I don't use anywhere near today's value in my forecasts for the rest of the year. That said the next profit figure even on conservative numbers makes the current SP look rather foolish.
There is a certain amount of slack when working out the forecast profit. Rhodium takes a very long time from mining to the end product, some 4-6 months and then there is the time from shipment to payment. In a rising market this leads to rising WIP values and rising adjustments post sale i.e. the fair value adjustments that find there way into the P&L.
Whichever way you cut it Q2 is significantly better than Q1, about 80% better by my model but it may even be slightly better than that. Q3 & Q4 are unknown but it would appear that we will be starting from the highest basket price yet at the beginning of a quarter.

It's an export tax, thus the manufacturers will use that as the only excuse they need to pass on the price increases. SA supply most of China's Chrome so China will have no choice but to accept it, China will then retaliate with a tit for tat response.
The impact on Tharisa will be minimal to zero. The glass does not always have to be half empty !!
Here is a glass half full post from Tharisa on Titter.
https://twitter.com/tharisa_sa/status/1371350049867898882/photo/1

JMAT Rhodium prices are:
$26,300 Hong Kong.
$25,700 London.
$25,100 New York.

Very good points by Visitor and TBTT. I have large investments in THS, SLP and for that matter JLP - JLP for very different reasons. A couple of weeks ago I compared all 3 P&L's & Balance Sheets with an open mind. let's ignore JLP's which has several items of weakness not uncommon in a company that has only recently entered profitability.
SLP's figure are outstanding and easily to see why it flags highly on the likes of Stockopedia and IC which naturally garner the interest of retail investors and drive the SP higher. It's EPS growth is very appealing, it's financial statements are simple and easy to understand, it does not use fair value adjustments to boost short term sales, its historical current ratio is 9.9 and its quick ratio is 6.2, both of which will improve this year as it's cash pile grows.
THS by comparison is a bit harder to understand although not difficult and in no way manipulates it's financial position. Clearly its profitability has been lower and it has invested recently in CAPEX. it's historical current ratio is only 1.79 and it's quick ratio an uncomfortable 0.42. I calculate it's 2020 year end book value at $374m against SLP's $141m which gives some clues of it's potential.
This is the beauty of being a retail investor. the ability to find a company like THS that looks OK historically although nothing special but then to realise that the work that has been put in coupled with the now favourable market conditions makes for an amazing investment. So yes in the past SLP has beaten THS hands down and rightly deserves the write ups that it is getting and the appreciation in it's SP. But this year the metrics for THS will change dramatically and I think we will start to see THS getting the write ups and thus the retail investors attention.
Another way of looking at it would be to simply look at the Q1 results with a basket price 42% below today's price, an average Rhodium price of $14,000 and a Chrome price 27% below today's prices, use a P/E of 6 and THS would still be trading at a slight discount.
Personally, I love SLP and THS for different reasons and I expect both SP's to appreciate. I am just expecting THS's percentage increase to be so much greater - the first 6 months of the year are almost known - and boy do they look good.

The Rhodium content is very low. If you take a worst case scenario in 2019 (the last stable year) when Rh demand was 798,000Oz and automotive was 85% giving 678,000 Oz to automotive. Taking only light vehicles, heavy vehicles use much more Rh so this is why this is a worst case scenario. Gasoline light duty volumes (again to re-iterate, excludes heavy duty, Hybrids and all other automotive use) was 67m vehicles so the average Rh loading was 0.010 Oz or $303 at a Rh price of $30,000/Oz.
Very top level numbers. Clearly Rh loadings have recently increased but I have only used part of the market so the circa $300/vehicle is a reasonable guide.
If you do a search on the net for Rh substitution in catalytic converters you will come across a host of scientific papers that discuss the search for alternatives to Rh. The only conclusions that I can find from them are:
1) The search has been ongoing for decades.
2) No suitable alternatives has been found that is cost effective and meets the same performance criteria.
3) The search is ongoing but nothing is coming through in the next few years.
Add to the above, that even if an alternative was found it would be many years in full development testing by the automobile manufacturers.
If anybody can find anything else - I am always happy to learn.